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Papers by minal pathak

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alter... more Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term
and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low carbon scenarios. This paper uses an energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL to analyse the role of electric vehicles (EV) in
India. The modelling assessment spans the period 2010 to 2050 and analyses future EV demand in India under three scenarios: i) a ‘Reference’ scenario which includes the continuation of existing EV policies as outlined in India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC); ii) a ‘EV policy’ scenario which, in line with India's INDCs, follows targeted supply-side push policies for EVs, but without the budget constraints; and iii) a ‘low carbon’ scenario which uses an exogenous price for CO2 in line with the global target of 2 C temperature stabilization. The scenarios analysis delineates penetration of EVs and their cobenefits as well as co-costs. The co-benefits relate to local air quality, national energy security and CO2 emissions in India whereas the co-costs (risks) are related to sourcing of raw materials for batteries and
battery reprocessing and disposal.
The findings show that: i) in the reference scenario, the EVs 2-wheelers will achieve a significant share by 2050. Electric 4-wheelers though would have a small share even in 2050; ii) EV push policies
though lead to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2 C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness of EVs and results in near total share of electric 2-wheelers by 2030 and a sizable share of electric 4-wheelers by 2050. The high and rising carbon price in low carbon scenario cause deep decarbonisation of electricity and enables EVs to deliver deep cut in CO2 emissions. The results show asymmetry in the impacts of national and global policies on co-benefits from EV. The EV supply push policies deliver moderate benefits vis-a-vis air pollution and energy security indicators but make insignificant contribution CO2 emissions reduction. On the other hand, the global carbon price in the
global 2 C stabilization scenario delivers sizable co-benefits vis-a-vis all three indicators. This asymmetry reveal important policy insights: i) the policy sequencing is vital to gain co-benefits, ii) EV technology push policies are good for creating early domestic market for a clean vehicle technology but they may not deliver sizable co-benefits vis-a-vis CO2 emissions which are global externalities, and iii) implementing strong climate policies early would lead to EVs delivering high co-benefits, in case of India, vis-a-vis all three indicators.

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in Ind... more Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of
quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO2 mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand.
Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility
plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development.

The relationship between cities and climate change has been under discussion by researchers and p... more The relationship between cities and climate change has been under discussion by researchers and policy makers. It is an accepted fact that cities have a very important role to play in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially true for rapidly growing cities in developing countries like India where urban population growth, spatial expansion, and economic development have resulted in increasing demand for energy. Future per capita CO2 emissions are expected to increase by four times between now and 2050. At the same time, like many other cities in developing countries, Indian cities are experiencing simultaneous challenges including infrastructure scarcity, air quality deterioration, and inadequate water resources. Large populations, high densities, presence of informal settlements, and industries within these cities have made them vulnerable to climate extremes. Urban infrastructure also will be at risk from climate change events including intense precipitation, flooding, and heat events. Future growth in urban areas will exacerbate existing issues of infrastructure provision and environmental issues of air quality, water, and waste. Climate change will be an added dimension to these urban challenges. Current urban planning process does not mainstream climate concerns and therefore necessitates the search for alternate approaches. Using case studies of selected cities, the chapter briefly highlights mitigation and adaptation challenges for these selected Indian cities and suggests a framework for integrating climate change concerns in urban planning and management.

Green growth is a relatively young field of public policy practice. The Green Growth Best Practic... more Green growth is a relatively young field of public policy practice. The Green Growth Best Practice (GGBP) initiative was set up to accelerate learning and to inform design of green growth programs, by undertaking an analysis of early experiences. For this report, GGBP engaged 75 authors in evaluating practices and lessons from green growth programs in all regions of the world. GGBP is also conducting a broad array of activities to build awareness and support countries in applying results of the findings to their national and sub-national programs, such as by presenting results through seminars and dialogues requested by government agencies and partnering with others on policy dialogue workshops, e-learning and peer learning programs.

Design and production: Magnum Custom Publishing New Delhi, India info@magnumbooks.org Photo ackno... more Design and production: Magnum Custom Publishing New Delhi, India info@magnumbooks.org Photo acknowledgement: Front cover: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Back cover: Subash Dhar Disclaimer:

Books by minal pathak

Relations (IDDRI), aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 i... more Relations (IDDRI), aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a low-carbon economy and significantly reduce the global risk of catastrophic climate change. Built upon a rigorous accounting of national circumstances, the DDPP defines transparent pathways supporting the decarbonization of energy systems while respecting the specifics of national political economy and the fulfillment of domestic development priorities. The project currently comprises 16 Country Research Teams, composed of leading research institutions from countries representing about 70% of global GHG emissions and at very different stages of development. These 16 countries are: Australia, Paris. Its objective is to determine and share the keys for analyzing and understanding strategic issues linked to sustainable development from a global perspective. IDDRI helps stakeholders in deliberating on global governance of the major issues of common interest: action to attenuate climate change, to protect biodiversity, to enhance food security and to manage urbanization, and also takes part in efforts to reframe development pathways.