Grazvydas JASUTIS | CERAH - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Grazvydas JASUTIS

Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia an... more Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia and Belarus by employing internal and external factors. One part of the research includes alliance theories, military integration and theoretical research of durability. Dissertation employs a number of causal factors deriving from alliance theories and points out those that influence the durability. A great importance is attached to the military integration which specifies the stages of alliance formation and indicates the criterions of durability. In the second part of the research the military alliance between Russia and Belarus is analyzed, placing an heavy emphasis on its structure, capabilities and potentiality. In other words, in using military integration models it is analyzed what, how and with what means the current alliance has achieved. The third part is devoted to the influence of the factors on the alliance durability and its development. Traditional social methods are used in the research in order to explain the factors and link up the research with outcomes. The research concludes that the military integration of alliances is an incremental process and its model demonstrates inter-state military cooperation and preferences. Having analyzed Russian-Belarusian case in accordance to the military integration model, it was concluded that this union has reached the highest military integration stage. The disintegration is unlikely because the military forces of Russia and Belarus have reached the highest interoperability level and the formed structure partly supports its durability

Lietuvos metinė strateginė apžvalga, 2008

Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia an... more Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia and Belarus by employing internal and external factors. One part of the research includes alliance theories, military integration and theoretical research of durability. Dissertation employs a number of causal factors deriving from alliance theories and points out those that influence the durability. A great importance is attached to the military integration which specifies the stages of alliance formation and indicates the criterions of durability. In the second part of the research the military alliance between Russia and Belarus is analyzed, placing an heavy emphasis on its structure, capabilities and potentiality. In other words, in using military integration models it is analyzed what, how and with what means the current alliance has achieved. The third part is devoted to the influence of the factors on the alliance durability and its development. Traditional social methods are used in the research in order to explain the factors and link up the research with outcomes. The research concludes that the military integration of alliances is an incremental process and its model demonstrates inter-state military cooperation and preferences. Having analyzed Russian-Belarusian case in accordance to the military integration model, it was concluded that this union has reached the highest military integration stage. The disintegration is unlikely because the military forces of Russia and Belarus have reached the highest interoperability level and the formed structure partly supports its durability

Analitinė publikacija DR. GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS-mokslininkas ir konfliktų valdymo s... more Analitinė publikacija DR. GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS-mokslininkas ir konfliktų valdymo specialistas. Dėsto posovietinio saugumo kursus Šveicarijoje, Prancūzijoje ir Ispanijoje. Prieš tai jis dirbo ES ir ESBO atstovu Gruzijoje, Indonezijoje, Malyje, Burkina Fase, Kosove ir Šiaurės Makedonijoje, o taip pat Lietuvos delegacijoje NATO ir Gynybos ministerijoje. Jo mokslinių tyrimų sritys apima žmogaus teises, saugumo sektoriaus reformas, konfliktų valdymą, politinės transformacijos procesus ir terorizmą posovietinėje erdvėje.

→ Norway et al. Russia (Arctic)]. Conflict triangles were thus strongly balanced against Russia, ... more → Norway et al. Russia (Arctic)]. Conflict triangles were thus strongly balanced against Russia, in conformity with the larger conflict between Russia, on the one side, and the US, the EU, NATO, and several allied states, on the other side [ → EU, USA et al. Russia]. In the South China Sea, violent clashes between maritime security forces and fishermen occurred between Vietnam and the PRC as well as between Vietnam and Malaysia [ → China Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. Such conflicts contribute significantly to the density of the network, which is defined by the proportion of actual ties between the nodes relative to the number of possible ties. In networks that map conflict relationships, a higher density (i.e., a higher number of unbalanced, closed triplets), indicates a more ambiguous alliance structure, which gives prevalence to hedging behavior. In the conflicts clusters between the North and South East Asian states, which are connected in multiple closed triangles, this figures most prominently. In North East Asia, the conflict between Japan and South Korea continued to run counter to both states' alliance with the US against North Korea [ → Japan, South Korea, USA North Korea], but saw an easing of tensions in 2020 [ → Japan South Korea]. In South East Asia, conflicts between Malaysia and its neighbors Vietnam and the Philippines featured the same intensity as the latter two's conflicts with China [ → China Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. Other examples for such triangular structures are the conflicts at the Horn of Africa [ → Egypt Ethiopia, Sudan (GERD), Egypt Sudan], in Eastern Europe, and between the EU, Russia, and Turkey, which have intensified along with their different positions in the intra-and transstate wars in Libya and Syria. Overall, the density of the network has increased since 2019, with the number of closed triplets increasing from 41 to 49 and the average clustering coefficient increasing from 0.44 to 0.49. To contextualize the conflict dyads and triangles within broader conflict systems, nodes in the main component were grouped into twelve non-overlapping communities, calculated with the Louvain modularity algorithm on the basis of weighted degrees. Next to the three largest communities forming around the gravity centers of Russia, China, and Turkey, this exploratory data analysis identified relatively independent conflict systems in Eastern Europe, Middle America, and Northeast Asia, as well as in the Levante and South Asia. The US and its isolated conflicts with Mexico and Cuba were located in one community with Iran and the Gulf region, mirroring the intensification of the US-Iranian conflict relationship with the US drone strike on Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 [ → Iran USA]. On January 8, Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner that it mistook for a US cruise missile, leading to 176 fatalities. In the peripheries, conflict systems were identified in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes, and South America, the latter two linked to the main component

Security agencies in Central Asia are equipped with excessive power, while their accountability a... more Security agencies in Central Asia are equipped with excessive power, while their accountability and transparency are very limited. The engagement of international actors and the identification of entry points thus require a thorough analysis.

The main objective of this mapping study, initiated by DCAF and conducted by DCAF’s partners in Central Asia, is to identify the security actors in Central Asia, determine their competencies, and identify their links with local communities. Furthermore, to measure their functions and performances against good governance standards.

This is relevant to both national and regional actors who would be able to access country reports of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Caucasus Survey

Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated Imarat Kavkaz to the Islami... more Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated Imarat Kavkaz to the Islamic State after 2014. Although this transition was partially the result of Imarat Kavkaz’s military defeat, it has also settled two decades of tension over ideology. It signalled the victory of Salafi-jihadism over a nationally rooted (radical) Islamism and led to a break between the insurgents and the Caucasian context. This de-territorialization of grievances for the war has in turn increased the threat of radical Islamist violence for Russia.

The article explores the implications of conflict between Chechnya and Dagestan. It explains the ... more The article explores the implications of conflict between Chechnya and Dagestan. It explains the evolution of the Dagestani-Chechen relations, their confrontation and psycho-cultural dramas; covers its recent developments and offers a path towards resolution. It outlines the key events which created a division, thus impacting on their harmonious cohabitation. The roots of their confrontation derive from historical injustice towards Chechnya as a result of forced deportation, unwillingness to revise the territories or accommodate the needs of the communities living in the disputed territories of Dagestan on the one hand. A series of external actions (such as the movement of Chechen troops into the Dagestani region—including armed raids in Borozdinovka in 2005 and 2008) substantiated anti-Chechen Dagestani sentiment. The article concludes that the Dagestani-Chechen relations need serious revision and intervention from regional authorities in addition to traditional local justice and reconciliation mechanisms. The research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme

Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 2014

This article aims to explore the mediation and upsurge of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh confli... more This article aims to explore the mediation and upsurge of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in order to introduce new elements into the mediation focused on the structure of violence. It analyzes the definition of violence and its stages, structure, and retrospective dynamics within this conflict. The research demonstrates that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict includes three kinds of violence manifesting through physical-behavioral deeds, structural-institutional and cultural violence. Physical-behavioral violence reached a peak again in January 2014, after a few years of relative silence. Current political structures and institutions are largely saturated with historical context based on negative memories (i.e. Sumgait pogrom, Khojaly massacres) and violence, accompanied by external posture and interests of international actors. This context constitutes cultural violence leading to antagonism and negative attitudes which result in violent behavior. The role of mediators (OSCE) in curbing violence seems to be insufficient largely because of its overwhelming focus on direct violence. It needs different strategies, resources and attitudes to find a proper solution to incorporate means dealing with the structural and cultural dimensions.

Politikos Mokslų Almanachas, 2013

Caucasus Survey, May 8, 2015

Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia an... more Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia and Belarus by employing internal and external factors. One part of the research includes alliance theories, military integration and theoretical research of durability. Dissertation employs a number of causal factors deriving from alliance theories and points out those that influence the durability. A great importance is attached to the military integration which specifies the stages of alliance formation and indicates the criterions of durability. In the second part of the research the military alliance between Russia and Belarus is analyzed, placing an heavy emphasis on its structure, capabilities and potentiality. In other words, in using military integration models it is analyzed what, how and with what means the current alliance has achieved. The third part is devoted to the influence of the factors on the alliance durability and its development. Traditional social methods are used in the research in order to explain the factors and link up the research with outcomes. The research concludes that the military integration of alliances is an incremental process and its model demonstrates inter-state military cooperation and preferences. Having analyzed Russian-Belarusian case in accordance to the military integration model, it was concluded that this union has reached the highest military integration stage. The disintegration is unlikely because the military forces of Russia and Belarus have reached the highest interoperability level and the formed structure partly supports its durability

Lietuvos metinė strateginė apžvalga, 2008

Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia an... more Dissertation seeks to analyze the formation and durability of military alliance between Russia and Belarus by employing internal and external factors. One part of the research includes alliance theories, military integration and theoretical research of durability. Dissertation employs a number of causal factors deriving from alliance theories and points out those that influence the durability. A great importance is attached to the military integration which specifies the stages of alliance formation and indicates the criterions of durability. In the second part of the research the military alliance between Russia and Belarus is analyzed, placing an heavy emphasis on its structure, capabilities and potentiality. In other words, in using military integration models it is analyzed what, how and with what means the current alliance has achieved. The third part is devoted to the influence of the factors on the alliance durability and its development. Traditional social methods are used in the research in order to explain the factors and link up the research with outcomes. The research concludes that the military integration of alliances is an incremental process and its model demonstrates inter-state military cooperation and preferences. Having analyzed Russian-Belarusian case in accordance to the military integration model, it was concluded that this union has reached the highest military integration stage. The disintegration is unlikely because the military forces of Russia and Belarus have reached the highest interoperability level and the formed structure partly supports its durability

Analitinė publikacija DR. GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS-mokslininkas ir konfliktų valdymo s... more Analitinė publikacija DR. GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS GRAŽVYDAS JASUTIS-mokslininkas ir konfliktų valdymo specialistas. Dėsto posovietinio saugumo kursus Šveicarijoje, Prancūzijoje ir Ispanijoje. Prieš tai jis dirbo ES ir ESBO atstovu Gruzijoje, Indonezijoje, Malyje, Burkina Fase, Kosove ir Šiaurės Makedonijoje, o taip pat Lietuvos delegacijoje NATO ir Gynybos ministerijoje. Jo mokslinių tyrimų sritys apima žmogaus teises, saugumo sektoriaus reformas, konfliktų valdymą, politinės transformacijos procesus ir terorizmą posovietinėje erdvėje.

→ Norway et al. Russia (Arctic)]. Conflict triangles were thus strongly balanced against Russia, ... more → Norway et al. Russia (Arctic)]. Conflict triangles were thus strongly balanced against Russia, in conformity with the larger conflict between Russia, on the one side, and the US, the EU, NATO, and several allied states, on the other side [ → EU, USA et al. Russia]. In the South China Sea, violent clashes between maritime security forces and fishermen occurred between Vietnam and the PRC as well as between Vietnam and Malaysia [ → China Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. Such conflicts contribute significantly to the density of the network, which is defined by the proportion of actual ties between the nodes relative to the number of possible ties. In networks that map conflict relationships, a higher density (i.e., a higher number of unbalanced, closed triplets), indicates a more ambiguous alliance structure, which gives prevalence to hedging behavior. In the conflicts clusters between the North and South East Asian states, which are connected in multiple closed triangles, this figures most prominently. In North East Asia, the conflict between Japan and South Korea continued to run counter to both states' alliance with the US against North Korea [ → Japan, South Korea, USA North Korea], but saw an easing of tensions in 2020 [ → Japan South Korea]. In South East Asia, conflicts between Malaysia and its neighbors Vietnam and the Philippines featured the same intensity as the latter two's conflicts with China [ → China Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. Other examples for such triangular structures are the conflicts at the Horn of Africa [ → Egypt Ethiopia, Sudan (GERD), Egypt Sudan], in Eastern Europe, and between the EU, Russia, and Turkey, which have intensified along with their different positions in the intra-and transstate wars in Libya and Syria. Overall, the density of the network has increased since 2019, with the number of closed triplets increasing from 41 to 49 and the average clustering coefficient increasing from 0.44 to 0.49. To contextualize the conflict dyads and triangles within broader conflict systems, nodes in the main component were grouped into twelve non-overlapping communities, calculated with the Louvain modularity algorithm on the basis of weighted degrees. Next to the three largest communities forming around the gravity centers of Russia, China, and Turkey, this exploratory data analysis identified relatively independent conflict systems in Eastern Europe, Middle America, and Northeast Asia, as well as in the Levante and South Asia. The US and its isolated conflicts with Mexico and Cuba were located in one community with Iran and the Gulf region, mirroring the intensification of the US-Iranian conflict relationship with the US drone strike on Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3 [ → Iran USA]. On January 8, Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner that it mistook for a US cruise missile, leading to 176 fatalities. In the peripheries, conflict systems were identified in the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes, and South America, the latter two linked to the main component

Security agencies in Central Asia are equipped with excessive power, while their accountability a... more Security agencies in Central Asia are equipped with excessive power, while their accountability and transparency are very limited. The engagement of international actors and the identification of entry points thus require a thorough analysis.

The main objective of this mapping study, initiated by DCAF and conducted by DCAF’s partners in Central Asia, is to identify the security actors in Central Asia, determine their competencies, and identify their links with local communities. Furthermore, to measure their functions and performances against good governance standards.

This is relevant to both national and regional actors who would be able to access country reports of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Caucasus Survey

Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated Imarat Kavkaz to the Islami... more Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated Imarat Kavkaz to the Islamic State after 2014. Although this transition was partially the result of Imarat Kavkaz’s military defeat, it has also settled two decades of tension over ideology. It signalled the victory of Salafi-jihadism over a nationally rooted (radical) Islamism and led to a break between the insurgents and the Caucasian context. This de-territorialization of grievances for the war has in turn increased the threat of radical Islamist violence for Russia.

The article explores the implications of conflict between Chechnya and Dagestan. It explains the ... more The article explores the implications of conflict between Chechnya and Dagestan. It explains the evolution of the Dagestani-Chechen relations, their confrontation and psycho-cultural dramas; covers its recent developments and offers a path towards resolution. It outlines the key events which created a division, thus impacting on their harmonious cohabitation. The roots of their confrontation derive from historical injustice towards Chechnya as a result of forced deportation, unwillingness to revise the territories or accommodate the needs of the communities living in the disputed territories of Dagestan on the one hand. A series of external actions (such as the movement of Chechen troops into the Dagestani region—including armed raids in Borozdinovka in 2005 and 2008) substantiated anti-Chechen Dagestani sentiment. The article concludes that the Dagestani-Chechen relations need serious revision and intervention from regional authorities in addition to traditional local justice and reconciliation mechanisms. The research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme

Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 2014

This article aims to explore the mediation and upsurge of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh confli... more This article aims to explore the mediation and upsurge of violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in order to introduce new elements into the mediation focused on the structure of violence. It analyzes the definition of violence and its stages, structure, and retrospective dynamics within this conflict. The research demonstrates that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict includes three kinds of violence manifesting through physical-behavioral deeds, structural-institutional and cultural violence. Physical-behavioral violence reached a peak again in January 2014, after a few years of relative silence. Current political structures and institutions are largely saturated with historical context based on negative memories (i.e. Sumgait pogrom, Khojaly massacres) and violence, accompanied by external posture and interests of international actors. This context constitutes cultural violence leading to antagonism and negative attitudes which result in violent behavior. The role of mediators (OSCE) in curbing violence seems to be insufficient largely because of its overwhelming focus on direct violence. It needs different strategies, resources and attitudes to find a proper solution to incorporate means dealing with the structural and cultural dimensions.

Politikos Mokslų Almanachas, 2013

Caucasus Survey, May 8, 2015

Caucasus Survey, 2020

Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated Imarat Kavkaz to the Islami... more Insurgents in the North Caucasus switched from the al-Qaedaaffiliated
Imarat Kavkaz to the Islamic State after 2014. Although
this transition was partially the result of Imarat Kavkaz’s military
defeat, it has also settled two decades of tension over ideology.
It signalled the victory of Salafi-jihadism over a nationally rooted
(radical) Islamism and led to a break between the insurgents
and the Caucasian context. This de-territorialization of grievances
for the war has in turn increased the threat of radical Islamist
violence for Russia.

This article examines recent developments in Chechnya with a particular focus on its leader, Ramz... more This article examines recent developments in Chechnya with a
particular focus on its leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, whose influence
has long surpassed the borders of the republic and whose further
provocative behaviour and uncontrolled actions may face
repercussions at the federal level. The research consists of two
major parts explaining the psychological, political, social, security,
and economic dimensions of the Kadyrov regime and its potential
for collapse. It employs a cognitive approach to analyse the
Kadyrov–Putin relationship as well as a behavioural perspective
focusing on individual–psychological factors. In addition, the study
thoroughly analyses Kadyrov’s regime and the elements of his
personal clout that remain heavily dependent on Moscow’s
assistance. The article concludes that, despite frictions, the
Kadyrov regime has been advantageous to federal authorities, has
mostly operated within Moscow’s comfort zone, and has pushed
forward Moscow’s interests. As long as the strategic partnerships
between Grozny and Moscow and Kadyrov and Putin continue,
there will be no significant steps taken to replace the regional
leader.

This study explores the role of parliaments in security sector oversight in the five Central Asia... more This study explores the role of parliaments in security sector oversight in the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It explores the composition and role of national parliaments, their committees and parliamentary staff, and the oversight function of parliaments and relevant public bodies. This publication aims to contribute to a better understanding of the current role of parliaments in the region as regard security sector oversight, and to provide useful input for discussions on their alignment with international best practice - in particular, in areas of law-making, budget scrutiny and oversight of the security sector, including intelligence services.