Miklós Koren | Central European University (original) (raw)
Talks by Miklós Koren
Papers by Miklós Koren
Abstract: The present Paper investigates the effects of incorporating illiquidity in a standard d... more Abstract: The present Paper investigates the effects of incorporating illiquidity in a standard dynamic portfolio choice problem. Lack of liquidity means that an asset cannot be immediately traded at any point in time. We find the portfolio share of financial wealth invested in illiquid assets given the liquidity premium. Benchmark calibrations imply a portfolio share of 2-6% in cash. These numbers are in line with survey data and also with portfolio recommendations by practitioners.
Abstract In this paper I estimate the labor demand response of Hungarian exporting firms to real ... more Abstract In this paper I estimate the labor demand response of Hungarian exporting firms to real exchange rate movements. The use of firm level export/import data enables me to separate two channels through which the exchange rate affects labor demand. First, a real depreciation raises the forint-equivalent price of foreign competitors, thereby boosting demand for the firm's export and, hence, the firm's demand for labor.
Abstract We use Hungarian Customs data on product-level imports of manufacturing firms to documen... more Abstract We use Hungarian Customs data on product-level imports of manufacturing firms to document that the import price of a particular product varies substantially across buying firms. We relate the level of import prices to firm characteristics such as size, foreign ownership, and market power. We develop a theory of “pricing to firm”(PTF), where markups depend on the technology and competitive environment of the buyer.
This research output confirms the strength of the approach underpinning the EFIGE project, which ... more This research output confirms the strength of the approach underpinning the EFIGE project, which is based on the recognition that firms are heterogeneous in the extent and the pattern of their internationalisation, as they are in many other respects. The project provides more, and more precise, evidence of what makes firms successful and therefore also what makes countries successful in the context of globalisation.
Abstract We document that administrative trade costs of per shipment nature (documentation, custo... more Abstract We document that administrative trade costs of per shipment nature (documentation, customs clearance and inspection) lead to less frequent and larger-sized shipments, ie, more lumpiness, in international trade. We build a model where consumers have heterogeneous preferences for the arrival time of a non-storable product and firms compete by selecting the time of their shipment.
N countries with immobile nonproduced equipped labour and produced goods (used as intermediates a... more N countries with immobile nonproduced equipped labour and produced goods (used as intermediates and for direct consumption). Ei ciency varies across countries and goods; modeled as random variables drawn from a (known) distribution. Constant returns to scale and perfect competition. Output for a given country is deterministic; there is no aggregate volatility
Abstract We conduct sector-level development accounting in a macro model where land and location ... more Abstract We conduct sector-level development accounting in a macro model where land and location play a role. Producers in agriculture, manufacturing and services choose their location to trade off transport costs to the city center and rents. We solve for the spatial equilibrium and show how space affects the aggregate production function and measured productivity. Studies not accounting for sector location will deem services in large, expensive cities unproductive.
Abstract Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify... more Abstract Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify three possible reasons:(i) poor countries specialize in fewer and more volatile sectors;(ii) poor countries experience more frequent and more severe aggregate shocks (eg, from macroeconomic policy); and (iii) poor countries' macroeconomic fluduations are more highly correlated with the shocks affecting the sectors they specialize in.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of imported machines on the wages of machine operators utilizing... more Abstract: We estimate the effect of imported machines on the wages of machine operators utilizing Hungarian linked employer-employee data. We infer exposure to imported machines from detailed trade statistics of the firm and the occupation description of the worker. We find that workers exposed to imported machines earn about 8 percent higher wages than other machine operators at the same firm.
Abstract: The paper provides a general-equilibrium model where incomplete international financial... more Abstract: The paper provides a general-equilibrium model where incomplete international financial markets lead to insufficient industrial specialization and low international trade. As international portfolio diversification is limited and productivity is uncertain, investors wish to maintain a diversified industrial structure rather than specializing according to their comparative advantage. Financial globalization then induces more specialization and more trade.
Abstract: The present Paper investigates the effects of incorporating illiquidity in a standard d... more Abstract: The present Paper investigates the effects of incorporating illiquidity in a standard dynamic portfolio choice problem. Lack of liquidity means that an asset cannot be immediately traded at any point in time. We find the portfolio share of financial wealth invested in illiquid assets given the liquidity premium. Benchmark calibrations imply a portfolio share of 2-6% in cash. These numbers are in line with survey data and also with portfolio recommendations by practitioners.
Abstract In this paper I estimate the labor demand response of Hungarian exporting firms to real ... more Abstract In this paper I estimate the labor demand response of Hungarian exporting firms to real exchange rate movements. The use of firm level export/import data enables me to separate two channels through which the exchange rate affects labor demand. First, a real depreciation raises the forint-equivalent price of foreign competitors, thereby boosting demand for the firm's export and, hence, the firm's demand for labor.
Abstract We use Hungarian Customs data on product-level imports of manufacturing firms to documen... more Abstract We use Hungarian Customs data on product-level imports of manufacturing firms to document that the import price of a particular product varies substantially across buying firms. We relate the level of import prices to firm characteristics such as size, foreign ownership, and market power. We develop a theory of “pricing to firm”(PTF), where markups depend on the technology and competitive environment of the buyer.
This research output confirms the strength of the approach underpinning the EFIGE project, which ... more This research output confirms the strength of the approach underpinning the EFIGE project, which is based on the recognition that firms are heterogeneous in the extent and the pattern of their internationalisation, as they are in many other respects. The project provides more, and more precise, evidence of what makes firms successful and therefore also what makes countries successful in the context of globalisation.
Abstract We document that administrative trade costs of per shipment nature (documentation, custo... more Abstract We document that administrative trade costs of per shipment nature (documentation, customs clearance and inspection) lead to less frequent and larger-sized shipments, ie, more lumpiness, in international trade. We build a model where consumers have heterogeneous preferences for the arrival time of a non-storable product and firms compete by selecting the time of their shipment.
N countries with immobile nonproduced equipped labour and produced goods (used as intermediates a... more N countries with immobile nonproduced equipped labour and produced goods (used as intermediates and for direct consumption). Ei ciency varies across countries and goods; modeled as random variables drawn from a (known) distribution. Constant returns to scale and perfect competition. Output for a given country is deterministic; there is no aggregate volatility
Abstract We conduct sector-level development accounting in a macro model where land and location ... more Abstract We conduct sector-level development accounting in a macro model where land and location play a role. Producers in agriculture, manufacturing and services choose their location to trade off transport costs to the city center and rents. We solve for the spatial equilibrium and show how space affects the aggregate production function and measured productivity. Studies not accounting for sector location will deem services in large, expensive cities unproductive.
Abstract Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify... more Abstract Why is GDP growth so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? We identify three possible reasons:(i) poor countries specialize in fewer and more volatile sectors;(ii) poor countries experience more frequent and more severe aggregate shocks (eg, from macroeconomic policy); and (iii) poor countries' macroeconomic fluduations are more highly correlated with the shocks affecting the sectors they specialize in.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of imported machines on the wages of machine operators utilizing... more Abstract: We estimate the effect of imported machines on the wages of machine operators utilizing Hungarian linked employer-employee data. We infer exposure to imported machines from detailed trade statistics of the firm and the occupation description of the worker. We find that workers exposed to imported machines earn about 8 percent higher wages than other machine operators at the same firm.
Abstract: The paper provides a general-equilibrium model where incomplete international financial... more Abstract: The paper provides a general-equilibrium model where incomplete international financial markets lead to insufficient industrial specialization and low international trade. As international portfolio diversification is limited and productivity is uncertain, investors wish to maintain a diversified industrial structure rather than specializing according to their comparative advantage. Financial globalization then induces more specialization and more trade.
New open economy macromodels feature different forms of price rigidities, usually in the framewor... more New open economy macromodels feature different forms of price rigidities, usually in the framework of monopolistically competitive firms. These firms are often allowed to set different prices across destinations (pricing to market or PTM). There is, however, an important division between theoretical approaches: some authors seem to prefer the assumption of producer currency pricing (PCP), whereas others assume local currency pricing (LCP).
Abstract We estimate a model of importers in Hungarian micro data and conduct counterfactual poli... more Abstract We estimate a model of importers in Hungarian micro data and conduct counterfactual policy analysis to investigate the effect of imports on productivity. We find that importing all foreign varieties would increase firm productivity by 12 percent, almost two-fifths of which is due to imperfect substitution between foreign and domestic goods. The effectiveness of import use is higher for foreign firms and increases when a firm becomes foreign-owned.
Abstract This paper studies the evolution of volatility and its sources in the six Gulf Cooperati... more Abstract This paper studies the evolution of volatility and its sources in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1970 to the present. We break down volatility into three main components. The first component relates to the volatility caused by sector-specific shocks (eg shocks to the oil sector). The second component relates to aggregate country-specific shocks that affect all sectors in the economy (eg shocks due to policy or political instability).