Göran Berndes | Chalmers University of Technology (original) (raw)

Papers by Göran Berndes

Research paper thumbnail of ENERGY AND LAND USE - WORKING PAPER for the GLOBAL LAND OUTLOOK

This working paper for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook discuses linkages between energy and land us... more This working paper for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook discuses linkages between energy and land use. It focuses on renewable energies, but also addresses fossil and nuclear. Quantitative figures of energy "land footprints" are given, as well as qualitative aspects (e.g. biodiversity). The paper also covers system impacts, and governance.

Research paper thumbnail of May we have some more land use change, please?

Research paper thumbnail of The Contribution of Renewables to Society

Sustainability Assessment, 2006

Research paper thumbnail of Greenhouse gas implications of land use and land conversion to biofuel crops

C h a p t e r 6 Mean annual CO2 emissions = (area of native/original land use converted to the se... more C h a p t e r 6 Mean annual CO2 emissions = (area of native/original land use converted to the selected biofuel crop under each scenario) X (CO2 emission factor associated with the conversion from native/ original land use to the selected biofuel crop). Emission factors considered for the 30 year period as well as on a mean annual basis are as follows;

Research paper thumbnail of Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil

Environmental Science & Technology, 2015

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and publ... more The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

Research paper thumbnail of CARBON SINKS AND BIOMASS ENERGY PRODUCTION: A study of linkages, options and implications

An expert in the areas of bioenergy and carbon sequestration, Bernhard Schlamadinger 1 is leader ... more An expert in the areas of bioenergy and carbon sequestration, Bernhard Schlamadinger 1 is leader of one of the International Energy Agency's collaborative research programs, IEA Bioenergy Task 38, focusing on greenhouse-gas aspects of bioenergy and carbon sequestration. Bernhard developed the GORCAM carbon accounting model and is a Lead Author of a Special Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Earning his Ph.D. . His research aims at understanding the long-term dynamics of societal energy and materials use and how it can be changed into a more sustainable direction. He is on the board of several international journals and a member of several international research groups and committees, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy expansion in the EU: Cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels

Energy Policy, 2007

... effective development given sectoral constraints, policies promoting the use of biofuels and ... more ... effective development given sectoral constraints, policies promoting the use of biofuels and other alternative fuels (hydrogen and natural-gas-based fuels like ... Rather than merging these different aspects into a multi-criteria analysis, we treat the additional drivers explicitly, in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? A comparison between two model-based studies

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2007

Grahn et al, "Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? -a comparison between two model based s... more Grahn et al, "Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? -a comparison between two model based studies", Submitted to Biomass&Bioenergy, 25 May 2005. Please do not cite this not yet peer reviewed version.

Research paper thumbnail of Sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil: an expansion model sensitive to socioeconomic and environmental concerns

Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 2007

Brazilian agriculture is characteristically dynamic; land and production resources have a skewed ... more Brazilian agriculture is characteristically dynamic; land and production resources have a skewed ownership distribution; and agricultural production is essential for small holders of rural poor regions. Also, the main agricultural land use is composed of pastures where extensive livestock production prevails. Because of increasing demand Brazil is expected to expand its sugarcane-based ethanol production. Addressing concerns about social and environmental impacts of such an expansion requires careful consideration of the complexity of Brazilian agriculture in general and specifi c local conditions in particular. This perspective outlines an expansion model for sugarcane ethanol production that is sensitive to socioeconomic and environmental concerns. Through integration with the prevailing land use, the model avoids the usual displacement of extensive livestock production to remote regions, causing leakage effects with deforestation and promotes milk and beef cattle intensifi cation and investment opportunities for local society. The expansion model is feasible at current market conditions and should have good prospects for complying with sustainability criteria within various certifi cation schemes presently under development. A case study, developed in the Pontal do Paranapanema region (state of São Paulo, Brazil) illustrates the model in agrarian reform settlements.

Research paper thumbnail of The Impact of Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) Cultivation on the Environment

vTI Agriculture and …

I. Dimitriou, C. Baum, S. Baum, G. Busch, U. Schulz, J. Köhn, N. Lamersdorf, P. Leinweber, P. Aro... more I. Dimitriou, C. Baum, S. Baum, G. Busch, U. Schulz, J. Köhn, N. Lamersdorf, P. Leinweber, P. Aronsson, M. Weih, G. Berndes, A. Bolte/Landbauforschung-vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research 3 2009 (59) 159-162 159 The impact of Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) cultivation on the ...

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

GCB Bioenergy

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries... more Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, eff...

Research paper thumbnail of How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Global Change Biology, 2013

Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greate... more Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply-and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO 2 -eq. yr À1 ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO 2 -eq. yr À1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO 2 -eq. yr À1 ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluation of water use for bioenergy at different scales

Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 2011

This perspective reviews water metrics for accounting total water demand to produce bioenergy at ... more This perspective reviews water metrics for accounting total water demand to produce bioenergy at various spatial scales. Volumes of water abstracted, consumed, and altered are estimated to assess water requirements of a bioenergy product, providing useful tools for water resource management and planning at local, regional, and global scale. Blue-water use accounting, integrated over time and space, provides the most direct measurements of the effects of bioenergy production on freshwater allocation among various end-users, and on human and ecosystem health and well-being. Measurement of total water demand for crop evapotranspiration, which includes both blue and green water, communicates vital information of how land and water productivity supports/constrains bioenergy expansion, and helps identify potential areas to increase the productivity of agriculture through improved soil and water conservation, changes in crop choice, and improved crop management. Life-cycle water use accounting provides a useful comparison of water required for production and conversion of feedstock to various forms of energy, and opportunities to improve water use effi ciency throughout the supply chain. In addition, life-cycle water use may be used to account for water use avoided as a result of displacement of products by coproducts of biofuel production; though these applications must be interpreted with caution. Local or regional conditions and the objective of the analysis at hand determine which water accounting metrics are most relevant and the relative importance of water use impact compared to other impacts, such as impacts to soil quality and biodiversity. Perspective: Water use for bioenergy at different scales summarizes selected water use metrics commonly used in the literature.

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy and land use change-state of the art

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2012

Bioenergy projects can lead to direct and indirect land use change (LUC), which can substantially... more Bioenergy projects can lead to direct and indirect land use change (LUC), which can substantially affect greenhouse gas balances with both beneficial and adverse outcomes for bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation. The causes behind LUC are multiple, complex, interlinked, and change over time. This makes quantification uncertain and sensitive to many factors that can develop in different directions-including land use productivity, trade patterns, prices and elasticities, and use of by-products associated with biofuels production. Quantifications reported so far vary substantially and do not support the ranking of bioenergy options with regard to LUC and associated emissions. There are however several options for mitigating these emissions, which can be implemented despite the uncertainties. Long-rotation forest management is associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other and this leads to mitigation trade-offs between biomass extraction for energy use and the alternative to leave the biomass in the forest. Bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation needs to reflect a balance between near-term targets and the long-term objective to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 • C (Copenhagen Accord). Although emissions from LUC can be significant in some circumstances, the reality of such emissions is not sufficient reason to exclude bioenergy from the list of worthwhile technologies for climate change mitigation. Policy measures to minimize the negative impacts of LUC should be based on a holistic perspective recognizing the multiple drivers and effects of LUC. C 2012 John

Research paper thumbnail of Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures. Part I: Land productivity potentials

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010

Land use scenarios Land resources Agriculture Crop residues a b s t r a c t Europe's agricultural... more Land use scenarios Land resources Agriculture Crop residues a b s t r a c t Europe's agricultural land (including Ukraine) comprise of 164 million hectares of cultivated land and 76 million hectares of permanent pasture. A ''food first'' paradigm was applied in the estimations of land potentially available for the production of biofuel feedstocks, without putting at risk food supply or nature conservation. Three land conversion scenarios were formulated: (i) A base scenario, that reflects developments under current policy settings and respects current trends in nature conservation and organic farming practices, by assuming moderate overall yield increases; (ii) an environment oriented scenario with higher emphasis on sustainable farming practices and maintenance of biodiversity; and (iii) an energy oriented scenario considering more substantial land use conversions including the use of pasture land.

Research paper thumbnail of Eyes on the track, mind on the horizon: The REFUEL EU Road Map for biofuels

The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biof... more The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biofuels. The REFUEL project provides several ingredients for such a strategy. Analyses in this project indicate that domestically produced biofuels can cover a significant share of EU fuel demand in the coming decades, with the EU-12 new member states and Ukraine as most promising regions. This potential can be realised with residual streams and on existing agricultural land, without conversion of e.g. nature reserves. Second-generation biofuels are essential for the long-term success of biofuels due to their superior performance in many ways. But generally, the key challenge for the near future would be how to enhance the development of biofuels in a responsible way, i.e. stimulating the production chains with the best performance, and preventing negative impacts e.g., by paying careful attention to possible system impacts of biofuel production such as indirect land use changes and rising food prices. Finally, 2 nd generation biofuels require specific policy: the precursor role of 1 st generation is overrated, both in technical terms as well as in their role as market precursors. When it comes to synergies, 2 nd generation biofuels might benefit more from other developments in the energy sector, such as initiatives in co-firing of biomass for (heat and) power, than from 1 st generation biofuels, also because of the public resistance that the latter induce.

Research paper thumbnail of The REFUEL EU road map for biofuels in transport: Application of the project's tools to some short-term policy issues

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010

Strategy a b s t r a c t

Research paper thumbnail of Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2003

This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been... more This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been put on the factors that in uence the potential biomass availability for energy purposes rather than give exact numbers. Six biomass resource categories for energy are identiÿed: energy crops on surplus cropland, energy crops on degraded land, agricultural residues, forest residues, animal manure and organic wastes. Furthermore, speciÿc attention is paid to the competing biomass use for material. The analysis makes use of a wide variety of existing studies on all separate categories. The main conclusion of the study is that the range of the global potential of primary biomass (in about 50 years) is very broad quantiÿed at 33 − 1135 EJy −1 . Energy crops from surplus agricultural land have the largest potential contribution (0 -988 EJy −1 ). Crucial factors determining biomass availability for energy are: (1) The future demand for food, determined by the population growth and the future diet; (2) The type of food production systems that can be adopted world-wide over the next 50 years;

Research paper thumbnail of Future bioenergy trade in the EU: modelling trading options from a cost-effectiveness perspective

Journal of Cleaner Production, 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyse under what conditions, with respect to CO2 emission-reduc... more The purpose of this paper is to analyse under what conditions, with respect to CO2 emission-reduction and biofuels-for-transport targets, the trading in the EU of CO2 credits and solid and/or liquid biofuels is cost-effective from the perspective of an optimisation energy systems model. We use the PEEP model covering the EU27 (except Bulgaria, Malta, and Cyprus) to generate insights about the cost-effectiveness of different options under different policy scenarios. Trade in CO2 credits is a cost-effective option, in all relevant policy scenarios. Trade in some biofuels (mainly from central and eastern European countries to the EU15) is cost-effective in all assessed scenarios. In the case of CO2 targets (whether national or at the EU level) there is trade in solid biofuels. When biofuels-for-transport targets are also implemented, trading both solid and liquid biofuels is cost-effective.

Research paper thumbnail of Co-generation of biofuels for transportation and heat for district heating systems—an assessment of the national possibilities in the EU

Energy Policy, 2009

Biomass gasification with subsequent synthesis to liquid or gaseous biofuels generates heat possi... more Biomass gasification with subsequent synthesis to liquid or gaseous biofuels generates heat possible to use in district heating (DH) systems. The purpose here is to estimate the heat sink capacity of DH systems in the individual EU nations and assess the possibilities for biomass-gasification-based cogeneration of synthetic biofuels for transportation and heat (CBH) for DH systems in the EU countries. The possibilities are assessed (i) assuming different levels of competiveness relative to other heat supply options of CBH corresponding to the EU target for renewable energy for transportation for 2020 and (ii) assuming that the potential expansion of the DH systems by 2020 is met with CBH. In general, the size of the DH heat sinks represented by the existing national aggregated DH systems can accommodate CBH at a scale that is significant compared to the 2020 renewable transportation target. The possibilities for CBH also depend on its cost-competitiveness compared to, e.g., fossil-fuel-based CHP. The possible expansion of the DH systems by 2020 represents an important opportunity for CBH and is also influenced by the potential increase in the use of other heat supply options, such as, industrial waste heat, waste incineration, and CHP.

Research paper thumbnail of ENERGY AND LAND USE - WORKING PAPER for the GLOBAL LAND OUTLOOK

This working paper for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook discuses linkages between energy and land us... more This working paper for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook discuses linkages between energy and land use. It focuses on renewable energies, but also addresses fossil and nuclear. Quantitative figures of energy "land footprints" are given, as well as qualitative aspects (e.g. biodiversity). The paper also covers system impacts, and governance.

Research paper thumbnail of May we have some more land use change, please?

Research paper thumbnail of The Contribution of Renewables to Society

Sustainability Assessment, 2006

Research paper thumbnail of Greenhouse gas implications of land use and land conversion to biofuel crops

C h a p t e r 6 Mean annual CO2 emissions = (area of native/original land use converted to the se... more C h a p t e r 6 Mean annual CO2 emissions = (area of native/original land use converted to the selected biofuel crop under each scenario) X (CO2 emission factor associated with the conversion from native/ original land use to the selected biofuel crop). Emission factors considered for the 30 year period as well as on a mean annual basis are as follows;

Research paper thumbnail of Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil

Environmental Science & Technology, 2015

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and publ... more The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

Research paper thumbnail of CARBON SINKS AND BIOMASS ENERGY PRODUCTION: A study of linkages, options and implications

An expert in the areas of bioenergy and carbon sequestration, Bernhard Schlamadinger 1 is leader ... more An expert in the areas of bioenergy and carbon sequestration, Bernhard Schlamadinger 1 is leader of one of the International Energy Agency's collaborative research programs, IEA Bioenergy Task 38, focusing on greenhouse-gas aspects of bioenergy and carbon sequestration. Bernhard developed the GORCAM carbon accounting model and is a Lead Author of a Special Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Earning his Ph.D. . His research aims at understanding the long-term dynamics of societal energy and materials use and how it can be changed into a more sustainable direction. He is on the board of several international journals and a member of several international research groups and committees, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy expansion in the EU: Cost-effective climate change mitigation, employment creation and reduced dependency on imported fuels

Energy Policy, 2007

... effective development given sectoral constraints, policies promoting the use of biofuels and ... more ... effective development given sectoral constraints, policies promoting the use of biofuels and other alternative fuels (hydrogen and natural-gas-based fuels like ... Rather than merging these different aspects into a multi-criteria analysis, we treat the additional drivers explicitly, in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? A comparison between two model-based studies

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2007

Grahn et al, "Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? -a comparison between two model based s... more Grahn et al, "Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? -a comparison between two model based studies", Submitted to Biomass&Bioenergy, 25 May 2005. Please do not cite this not yet peer reviewed version.

Research paper thumbnail of Sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil: an expansion model sensitive to socioeconomic and environmental concerns

Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 2007

Brazilian agriculture is characteristically dynamic; land and production resources have a skewed ... more Brazilian agriculture is characteristically dynamic; land and production resources have a skewed ownership distribution; and agricultural production is essential for small holders of rural poor regions. Also, the main agricultural land use is composed of pastures where extensive livestock production prevails. Because of increasing demand Brazil is expected to expand its sugarcane-based ethanol production. Addressing concerns about social and environmental impacts of such an expansion requires careful consideration of the complexity of Brazilian agriculture in general and specifi c local conditions in particular. This perspective outlines an expansion model for sugarcane ethanol production that is sensitive to socioeconomic and environmental concerns. Through integration with the prevailing land use, the model avoids the usual displacement of extensive livestock production to remote regions, causing leakage effects with deforestation and promotes milk and beef cattle intensifi cation and investment opportunities for local society. The expansion model is feasible at current market conditions and should have good prospects for complying with sustainability criteria within various certifi cation schemes presently under development. A case study, developed in the Pontal do Paranapanema region (state of São Paulo, Brazil) illustrates the model in agrarian reform settlements.

Research paper thumbnail of The Impact of Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) Cultivation on the Environment

vTI Agriculture and …

I. Dimitriou, C. Baum, S. Baum, G. Busch, U. Schulz, J. Köhn, N. Lamersdorf, P. Leinweber, P. Aro... more I. Dimitriou, C. Baum, S. Baum, G. Busch, U. Schulz, J. Köhn, N. Lamersdorf, P. Leinweber, P. Aronsson, M. Weih, G. Berndes, A. Bolte/Landbauforschung-vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research 3 2009 (59) 159-162 159 The impact of Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) cultivation on the ...

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

GCB Bioenergy

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries... more Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, eff...

Research paper thumbnail of How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Global Change Biology, 2013

Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greate... more Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply-and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO 2 -eq. yr À1 ) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO 2 -eq. yr À1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO 2 -eq. yr À1 ), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluation of water use for bioenergy at different scales

Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 2011

This perspective reviews water metrics for accounting total water demand to produce bioenergy at ... more This perspective reviews water metrics for accounting total water demand to produce bioenergy at various spatial scales. Volumes of water abstracted, consumed, and altered are estimated to assess water requirements of a bioenergy product, providing useful tools for water resource management and planning at local, regional, and global scale. Blue-water use accounting, integrated over time and space, provides the most direct measurements of the effects of bioenergy production on freshwater allocation among various end-users, and on human and ecosystem health and well-being. Measurement of total water demand for crop evapotranspiration, which includes both blue and green water, communicates vital information of how land and water productivity supports/constrains bioenergy expansion, and helps identify potential areas to increase the productivity of agriculture through improved soil and water conservation, changes in crop choice, and improved crop management. Life-cycle water use accounting provides a useful comparison of water required for production and conversion of feedstock to various forms of energy, and opportunities to improve water use effi ciency throughout the supply chain. In addition, life-cycle water use may be used to account for water use avoided as a result of displacement of products by coproducts of biofuel production; though these applications must be interpreted with caution. Local or regional conditions and the objective of the analysis at hand determine which water accounting metrics are most relevant and the relative importance of water use impact compared to other impacts, such as impacts to soil quality and biodiversity. Perspective: Water use for bioenergy at different scales summarizes selected water use metrics commonly used in the literature.

Research paper thumbnail of Bioenergy and land use change-state of the art

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2012

Bioenergy projects can lead to direct and indirect land use change (LUC), which can substantially... more Bioenergy projects can lead to direct and indirect land use change (LUC), which can substantially affect greenhouse gas balances with both beneficial and adverse outcomes for bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation. The causes behind LUC are multiple, complex, interlinked, and change over time. This makes quantification uncertain and sensitive to many factors that can develop in different directions-including land use productivity, trade patterns, prices and elasticities, and use of by-products associated with biofuels production. Quantifications reported so far vary substantially and do not support the ranking of bioenergy options with regard to LUC and associated emissions. There are however several options for mitigating these emissions, which can be implemented despite the uncertainties. Long-rotation forest management is associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other and this leads to mitigation trade-offs between biomass extraction for energy use and the alternative to leave the biomass in the forest. Bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation needs to reflect a balance between near-term targets and the long-term objective to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 • C (Copenhagen Accord). Although emissions from LUC can be significant in some circumstances, the reality of such emissions is not sufficient reason to exclude bioenergy from the list of worthwhile technologies for climate change mitigation. Policy measures to minimize the negative impacts of LUC should be based on a holistic perspective recognizing the multiple drivers and effects of LUC. C 2012 John

Research paper thumbnail of Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures. Part I: Land productivity potentials

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010

Land use scenarios Land resources Agriculture Crop residues a b s t r a c t Europe's agricultural... more Land use scenarios Land resources Agriculture Crop residues a b s t r a c t Europe's agricultural land (including Ukraine) comprise of 164 million hectares of cultivated land and 76 million hectares of permanent pasture. A ''food first'' paradigm was applied in the estimations of land potentially available for the production of biofuel feedstocks, without putting at risk food supply or nature conservation. Three land conversion scenarios were formulated: (i) A base scenario, that reflects developments under current policy settings and respects current trends in nature conservation and organic farming practices, by assuming moderate overall yield increases; (ii) an environment oriented scenario with higher emphasis on sustainable farming practices and maintenance of biodiversity; and (iii) an energy oriented scenario considering more substantial land use conversions including the use of pasture land.

Research paper thumbnail of Eyes on the track, mind on the horizon: The REFUEL EU Road Map for biofuels

The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biof... more The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biofuels. The REFUEL project provides several ingredients for such a strategy. Analyses in this project indicate that domestically produced biofuels can cover a significant share of EU fuel demand in the coming decades, with the EU-12 new member states and Ukraine as most promising regions. This potential can be realised with residual streams and on existing agricultural land, without conversion of e.g. nature reserves. Second-generation biofuels are essential for the long-term success of biofuels due to their superior performance in many ways. But generally, the key challenge for the near future would be how to enhance the development of biofuels in a responsible way, i.e. stimulating the production chains with the best performance, and preventing negative impacts e.g., by paying careful attention to possible system impacts of biofuel production such as indirect land use changes and rising food prices. Finally, 2 nd generation biofuels require specific policy: the precursor role of 1 st generation is overrated, both in technical terms as well as in their role as market precursors. When it comes to synergies, 2 nd generation biofuels might benefit more from other developments in the energy sector, such as initiatives in co-firing of biomass for (heat and) power, than from 1 st generation biofuels, also because of the public resistance that the latter induce.

Research paper thumbnail of The REFUEL EU road map for biofuels in transport: Application of the project's tools to some short-term policy issues

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2010

Strategy a b s t r a c t

Research paper thumbnail of Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy

Biomass and Bioenergy, 2003

This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been... more This study explores the range of future world potential of biomass for energy. The focus has been put on the factors that in uence the potential biomass availability for energy purposes rather than give exact numbers. Six biomass resource categories for energy are identiÿed: energy crops on surplus cropland, energy crops on degraded land, agricultural residues, forest residues, animal manure and organic wastes. Furthermore, speciÿc attention is paid to the competing biomass use for material. The analysis makes use of a wide variety of existing studies on all separate categories. The main conclusion of the study is that the range of the global potential of primary biomass (in about 50 years) is very broad quantiÿed at 33 − 1135 EJy −1 . Energy crops from surplus agricultural land have the largest potential contribution (0 -988 EJy −1 ). Crucial factors determining biomass availability for energy are: (1) The future demand for food, determined by the population growth and the future diet; (2) The type of food production systems that can be adopted world-wide over the next 50 years;

Research paper thumbnail of Future bioenergy trade in the EU: modelling trading options from a cost-effectiveness perspective

Journal of Cleaner Production, 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyse under what conditions, with respect to CO2 emission-reduc... more The purpose of this paper is to analyse under what conditions, with respect to CO2 emission-reduction and biofuels-for-transport targets, the trading in the EU of CO2 credits and solid and/or liquid biofuels is cost-effective from the perspective of an optimisation energy systems model. We use the PEEP model covering the EU27 (except Bulgaria, Malta, and Cyprus) to generate insights about the cost-effectiveness of different options under different policy scenarios. Trade in CO2 credits is a cost-effective option, in all relevant policy scenarios. Trade in some biofuels (mainly from central and eastern European countries to the EU15) is cost-effective in all assessed scenarios. In the case of CO2 targets (whether national or at the EU level) there is trade in solid biofuels. When biofuels-for-transport targets are also implemented, trading both solid and liquid biofuels is cost-effective.

Research paper thumbnail of Co-generation of biofuels for transportation and heat for district heating systems—an assessment of the national possibilities in the EU

Energy Policy, 2009

Biomass gasification with subsequent synthesis to liquid or gaseous biofuels generates heat possi... more Biomass gasification with subsequent synthesis to liquid or gaseous biofuels generates heat possible to use in district heating (DH) systems. The purpose here is to estimate the heat sink capacity of DH systems in the individual EU nations and assess the possibilities for biomass-gasification-based cogeneration of synthetic biofuels for transportation and heat (CBH) for DH systems in the EU countries. The possibilities are assessed (i) assuming different levels of competiveness relative to other heat supply options of CBH corresponding to the EU target for renewable energy for transportation for 2020 and (ii) assuming that the potential expansion of the DH systems by 2020 is met with CBH. In general, the size of the DH heat sinks represented by the existing national aggregated DH systems can accommodate CBH at a scale that is significant compared to the 2020 renewable transportation target. The possibilities for CBH also depend on its cost-competitiveness compared to, e.g., fossil-fuel-based CHP. The possible expansion of the DH systems by 2020 represents an important opportunity for CBH and is also influenced by the potential increase in the use of other heat supply options, such as, industrial waste heat, waste incineration, and CHP.