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Papers by Dr Leena Hoffmann

Data & Policy

Bribery for access to public goods and services remains a widespread and seemingly innocuous prac... more Bribery for access to public goods and services remains a widespread and seemingly innocuous practice which disproportionately targets the poor and helps keep them poor. Furthermore, its aggregate effects erode the legitimacy of government institutions and their capacity to fairly administer public goods and services as well as protection under the law. Drawing on original evidence using social norms methodology, this research tests underlying beliefs and expectations which sustain persistent forms of bribery and draws attention to the presence of pluralistic ignorance and consequent collective action problems. With examples focused on bribery in traffic law enforcement, healthcare, and education—three critical areas where bribery is often identified as an entrenched practice—this article contributes new evidence of: (a) the presence of pluralistic ignorance, a common social comparison error, surrounding bribery behavior; (b) differing social evaluations of bribe-solicitation; and f...

Vote-trading has become a widespread practice in Nigeria, where democracy has struggled to be ful... more Vote-trading has become a widespread practice in Nigeria, where democracy has struggled to be fully consolidated due to the country’s complex political landscape and its entrenched corrupt political class. Where acute socio-economic hardship persists, vote-selling traps citizens in self-sabotaging, clientelist relationships with political leaders. Data gathered in 2018, in the second household survey conducted by the Chatham House Africa Programme’s Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) project, shows that three-quarters of people believe it is broadly unacceptable for anyone to exchange their vote for money or a gift. At the same time, they assume that at least half of people in their community would be likely to sell their vote. Voters are evidently conflicted on the issue. The SNAG research underlines that vote-selling is mostly driven by an individual’s own material circumstances, and highlights the dissatisfaction of Nigerians with how their democracy is not working. T...

Affairs, is an independent policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help build a susta... more Affairs, is an independent policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

West African Papers

OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of i... more OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the authors. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Sahel and West Africa Club, OECD,

This report aims to diagnose what drives corrupt behaviour in Nigeria, and the types of beliefs t... more This report aims to diagnose what drives corrupt behaviour in Nigeria, and the types of beliefs that support practices understood to be corrupt. The findings are based largely on a national household survey jointly developed by the Chatham House Africa Programme and the University of Pennsylvania’s Social Norms Group (PennSONG), in collaboration with Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics as well as a network of academics and practitioners from Nigerian universities and non governmental organisations (NGOs). The research is based on the belief that identifying and understanding the specific social drivers of specific collective practices is key to designing targeted and effective policy interventions to change those practices. This report makes the case that anti-corruption efforts in Nigeria can be designed or adjusted, based on lessons drawn from behavioural studies, to more effectively reduce practices such as bribery, extortion, nepotism, and embezzlement. It presents new evidence on key social drivers that influence people’s decisions to engage in or avoid corrupt activity, as well as factors that may impede collective action against corruption. It also highlights lessons from some case studies of successful social campaigns and the critical ingredients for success or failure.

This chapter considers the impact of the twin challenges of reduced crude oil sales revenue on Ni... more This chapter considers the impact of the twin challenges of reduced crude oil sales revenue on Nigeria's economy and the Boko Haram insurgency threat in the northeast of the country. It assesses Nigeria's management record of profits during one of the biggest and longest oil booms in history and how the legacy of failure to diversify the economy away from the volatility of the global oil market has shaped national politics and the current security threat and response to the world's deadliest terrorist group, Boko Haram. The chapter concludes that the convergence of shrunken oil revenue, extremist violence as well as a pervasive culture of corruption are the defining challenges of the current Buhari administration and will test the new president's resolve and the competence of his economic team.

Northern Nigeria is witnessing an upheaval in its political and social space. Since the country’s... more Northern Nigeria is witnessing an upheaval in its political and social space. Since the country’s return to democracy in 1999 a growing number of actors, groups and movements have emanated from the region, all purporting to speak and represent the best interests of its people. The different and often clashing voices that have emerged from the north include elements of the political establishment, opposition, youth and civil society. At the very far end of the spectrum, it also includes the bellicose voice of a violent insurgency from the northeast corner that is hostile towards the Nigerian state and threatening to wreck the stability and security of the entire region. The ongoing struggle for greater influence, inclusion, accountability and representation in northern Nigeria is central to understanding transformations in the region’s politics, especially in the context of its security challenges and a looming general election in 2015.
Located within a general appraisal of Nigeria’s 15 years of democracy, this paper provides an analysis of current political and leadership dynamics in northern Nigeria and their impact on local and national challenges. It examines how the historical imbalance in power relations between northern and southern Nigeria have been reshaped since 1999 by the diminishing national role of northern leaders. Addressing issues beyond the worsening extremist and internecine violence, and considering the broader setting of politics and dissent in the north, this paper discusses how the region’s leaders have reacted to their declining influence at the centre and how political strategies and alliances in the region have been reconstructed in post-1999 Nigeria.

Journal of Modern African Studies, 2010

Page 1. Fairy godfathers and magical elections : understanding the 2003 electoral crisis in Anamb... more Page 1. Fairy godfathers and magical elections : understanding the 2003 electoral crisis in Anambra State, Nigeria* LEENA HOFFMANN Centre of West African Studies, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK ...

Books by Dr Leena Hoffmann

Talks by Dr Leena Hoffmann

Nigeria’s international profile has been raised in recent months due to the Boko Haram crisis in ... more Nigeria’s international profile has been raised in recent months due to the Boko Haram crisis in the northeast, as well as the country’s emergence as Africa’s largest economy. Due to its scale and diversity, understanding the potential and challenges of Africa’s most populous nation requires a broader view of its political and decision-making dynamics. As Nigeria celebrates one hundred years of unity, significant differences – real and perceived – remain between different parts of the country.

In this event, which launched the Chatham House Briefing Who Speaks for the North? Politics and Influence in Northern Nigeria, the author, Dr Leena Hoffmann, discussed the effects of democratization and pacted politics on northern Nigeria, broader governance challenges, and how relations among decision-makers have evolved.
- See more at: http://www.chathamhouse.org/event/power-and-democracy-northern-nigeria-understanding-political-change#sthash.g2ylPe20.dpuf

Conference Presentations by Dr Leena Hoffmann

The aim of this paper is to show how the local politics of border areas penetrates and influences... more The aim of this paper is to show how the local politics of border areas penetrates and influences West African trade systems and how regional economic networks are integrated into local and national power structures in Nigeria and Niger. The focus on local politics stems from a belief in the enduring importance of local political economies to the growth or stagnation of regional trade as well as the sensitivity of trade to its immediate political context. This paper begins with an exploration of how recent political transformations have influenced the interests of economic agents and impacted the dynamics of regional trade. It goes on to discuss the political strategies of West African traders and networks and the nature of their investments in state power at the local level. The discussion in this paper is illustrated by the case of the Illela/N'Konni border area between Nigeria and Niger.

Expert Comment by Dr Leena Hoffmann

Last week, fierce fighting between security forces and suspected insurgents in Borno State's Baga... more Last week, fierce fighting between security forces and suspected insurgents in Borno State's Baga village killed an estimated 185 people, possibly more. This was not the first clash between security forces and suspected insurgents in Nigeria that has led to civilian casualties, but it ranks among the deadliest battles seen in the country's North East since the Boko Haram uprising began three years ago. It is part of a spiralling security crisis in Nigeria; a national quagmire that is arguably the most precarious since the country’s civil war which ended in 1970.

Today, 14 February, Nigerians were expecting to vote in what would probably have been the most ha... more Today, 14 February, Nigerians were expecting to vote in what would probably have been the most hard-fought and unpredictable elections since the return to civilian rule in 1999. But with a six-week postponement announced less than a week before election day, the timing of the contest has become a matter of controversy that threatens this diverse giant’s stability and democratization. With an economy battered by the oil price drop and a deepening security crisis, a deeply flawed or outright cancelled election could be a devastating blow to the country. - See more at: http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/16925#sthash.5NJcD81o.dpuf

Corruption papers by Dr Leena Hoffmann

Data & Policy

West African Papers

Journal of Modern African Studies, 2010