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TY - JOUR AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki AU - Vecchi, Gabriel A. AU - Underwood, Seth PY - 2017 DA - 2017/12/01 TI - Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea JO - Nature Climate Change SP - 885 EP - 889 VL - 7 IS - 12 AB - In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s−1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications. SN - 1758-6798 UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 DO - 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 ID - Murakami2017 ER -