Oscars Best Picture Predictions: Can 'The Holdovers' Catch 'Oppenheimer'? (original) (raw)
Updated Jan 16, 2024, 2:15 PM EST
Perri Nemiroff is the 2025 Press Award winner at the ICG Publicists Awards.
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It's time to forecast the biggest award delivered during Hollywood's biggest event. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff will keep you up to date on the leading contenders for 2024's Oscar for Best Picture based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers. Check in for regular updates because just when you think you've got the race figured out, the game changes.
The field is narrowing in the Best Picture race now that the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild of America have unveiled their nominees. Nothing is guaranteed, but things are looking quite good for eight potential contenders, while a small handful of films could claim the final two slots. What options are looking most likely with just a week to go until the Academy announces its nominees? Let's get into it!
Here are where things stand as of January 16th, 2023:
10 'Anatomy of a Fall'
Produced By Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
Two people look at a deceased body in the snow in 'Anatomy of a Fall.'
Image via NEON
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Two international features have had a chance of earning a spot on this list since the start of the season: Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest and Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall. There's still a chance both could become Best Picture nominees and bump my #9 out. However, it's more likely that voters will choose between the two international titles. Which one are Academy voters more likely to go for? I was giving Zone of Interest the edge initially. Now, I'm less certain, given that both films earned nominations from the Producers Guild of America, marking the first time the guild nominated two international films. Both will earn Oscar nominations come January 23rd. But no one likes a toss-up prediction, so I'll lean towards The Zone of Interest netting Best International Feature, a category for which Anatomy of a Fall isn't even eligible. With that, Anatomy of a Fall is my choice out of the two to grab some Best Picture love.
Release Date
May 22, 2023
Runtime
151 Minutes
Director
Justine Triet
After the suspicious death of her husband, a writer finds herself at the center of a high-stakes legal case. As she fights to prove her innocence, the trial exposes the complexities of their marriage and her personal life. The story intricately weaves courtroom tension with emotional revelations, exploring the blurred lines between truth and deception.
9 'The Color Purple'
Produced By Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey
Celie (Fantasia Barrino) singing and dancing with the cast from The Color Purple.
Image via Warner Bros.
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The Color Purple earned a rousing response from those in the industry and the moviegoing public upon release. Still, it's a late-season entry, making claiming some vital precursor awards essential for solidifying its Best Picture nomination chances. It got one of the two. While it missed out on a nomination from the Producers Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild gave it a nomination for Outstanding Cast in a Motion Picture, in addition to Danielle Brooks' nomination for Outstanding Supporting Actress. We often see eight of the ten PGA nominees go on to score Best Picture nominations from the Academy, so The Color Purple could wind up snagging one of those two remaining positions. Its ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards certainly signals it's got a better chance of doing so than other contenders.
Release Date
December 25, 2023
A decades-spanning tale of love and resilience and of one woman's journey to independence. Celie faces many hardships in her life, but ultimately finds extraordinary strength and hope in the unbreakable bonds of sisterhood.
8 'Past Lives'
Produced By David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
Teo Yoo and Greta Lee as Hae Sung and Nora looking at each other while sitting in some steps in 'Past Lives' (2023)
Image via A24
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Celine Song's feature debut, Past Lives, appears to be going the distance as hoped. Even with a rousing debut at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival, there was a concern that it might not sustain momentum through the year and into awards season. But with Past Lives making an indelible impression on many, a Best Picture nomination feels more and more like a sure thing. Yes, it was totally shut out at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, but then it went on to earn a biggie: a nomination from the Producers Guild of America. With that, the A24 favorite will likely end up a Best Picture nominee on January 23rd.
Release Date
June 2, 2023
Runtime
106 minutes
Director
Celine Song
Nora and Hae Sung, two deeply connected childhood friends, are wrested apart after Nora's family emigrates from South Korea. Twenty years later, they are reunited for one fateful week as they confront notions of love and destiny.
7 'Maestro'
Produced By Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein conducting an orchestra in 'Maestro'
Image via Netflix
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It is doubtful Bradley Cooper's Maestro will miss out on a Best Picture nomination, but there's no denying that its weight in this particular race is thinning. The biopic has performed well on the circuit thus far, earning a Golden Lion nomination at the Venice International Film Festival and eight Critics Choice nominations. Further, it locked in a much-needed nomination from the Producers Guild of America. Still, the buzz isn't there. A warm embrace from Netflix subscribers after its streaming release could have helped. However, the movie didn't stir much additional positivity with the public, leaving it a likely nominee but a weak contender for the award.
Release Date
December 20, 2023
Runtime
129 Minutes
Director
Writers
Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
The journey of a legendary conductor unfolds, highlighting his rise to fame and the intricate dynamics of his personal and professional life. The film offers a deep dive into his creative process, the challenges he faces in the music industry, and the profound connections he makes along the way.
6 'American Fiction'
Produced By Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair
Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious 'Monk' Ellison in American Fiction.
Image via Amazon MGM Studios
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Based on the novel by Percival Everett, this playful yet pointed feature debut from writer-director Cord Jefferson takes aim at modern storytelling.
Cord Jefferson’s feature debut, American Fiction, kicked off its awards season run by snagging one of the most critical Oscar precursors: the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. The moment that happened, American Fiction became a major Oscar contender. It’s only picked up awards season steam since. Its recent Producers Guild of America nomination is another feather in its cap to accompany its three from the Screen Actors Guild, including one for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. With all that going for it, American Fiction will claim a slot in this category.
Release Date
September 8, 2023
Runtime
117 Minutes
Director
Cord Jefferson
A novelist who's fed up with the establishment profiting from "Black" entertainment uses a pen name to write a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.
5 'Killers of the Flower Moon'
Produced By Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
Lily Gladstone as Mollie Burkhart in Killers of the Flower Moon.
Image via Apple TV+
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At this point in the season, it is unquestionable that Killers of the Flower Moon will be in the Best Picture race. Yet, even with a significant amount of early awards season love, the beloved Martin Scorcese at the helm, and excellent performances from top to bottom, I suspect the film will remain in the middle of the pack through March. Thus far, Killers of the Flower Moon has been named one of AFI’s Movies of the Year and garnered four National Board of Review awards, 12 Critics Choice nominations, three SAG nominations, including one for Best Cast, and a PGA nomination. Many Academy Award nominations are likely on the horizon, but the film’s best chances of winning Oscar gold will be in other categories.
Runtime
200minutes
Director
Writers
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
When oil is discovered in 1920s Oklahoma under Osage Nation land, the Osage people are murdered one by one - until the FBI steps in to unravel the mystery.
4 'Poor Things'
Produced By Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone
Bella Baxter (Emma Stone) in front of a blue sky in Poor Things
Image via Searchlight Pictures
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There was a time when it seemed that the abundance of big story swings in Poor Things could polarize viewers. Now it looks like audiences and awards season voters are eager to embrace its weird, massive beating heart. Yorgos Lanthimos' latest has enjoyed much critical praise since its Venice International Film Festival premiere, where it won the Golden Lion. The celebration continued with its public release. The movie scored one of the best limited openings in 2023 and will likely get another big boost when it's available to stream. It's unlikely Poor Things will claim the gold, but its nomination is a sure thing.
Release Date
December 7, 2023
Runtime
141 minutes
Director
Yorgos Lanthimos
The incredible tale about the fantastical evolution of Bella Baxter, a young woman brought back to life by the brilliant and unorthodox scientist Dr. Godwin Baxter.
3 'Barbie'
Produced By David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner
Margot Robbie as Barbie and Ryan Gosling as Ken Wearing White Hats in Barbie (2023)
Image via Warner Bros.
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The Barbie phenomenon will undoubtedly continue through awards season. Is it likely to win Best Picture? Probably not, but its nomination is a lock, and it's got a good chance of winning big in other categories. It's a high-quality film, the biggest hit of 2023 at the box office, and it's infused its way into pop culture to an extent that only a rare few do. Its sky-high Kenergy deserves a nod, which will undoubtedly come on January 23rd. Beyond that, though, the chances of a statuette in this category are minimal.
Release Date
July 21, 2023
Runtime
114 minutes
Director
A beloved doll, known for her perfect life in an idyllic, colorful world, finds herself on an unexpected journey when she starts to feel out of place. Seeking answers, she leaves her fantastical home and steps into the real world, where she experiences the highs and lows of human life. With the help of new friends, she navigates the challenges of identity and purpose, discovering the importance of authenticity and inner strength.
2 'The Holdovers'
Produced By Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
Paul Giamatti as Hunham, looking sullen in The Holdovers
Image via Focus Features
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Since catching The Holdovers at its world premiere screening at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival, I've been saying that Alexander Payne's latest is a crowd-pleaser capable of playing the long game this Oscar season. It's doing just that in the Best Actor race. After his Best Actor win at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, Paul Giamatti topped Cillian Murphy to become the frontrunner to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards. While the gap between Oppenheimer and The Holdovers could narrow in the coming weeks in this category, I don't suspect it'll be enough for The Holdovers to win the race.
Release Date
November 10, 2023
Runtime
133 Minutes
Director
Alexander Payne
A cranky history teacher at a remote prep school is forced to remain on campus over the holidays with a troubled student who has no place to go.
1 'Oppenheimer'
Produced By Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Emily Blunt and Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
Image via Universal Studios
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Cillian Murphy is remarkable in a film that feels like what Nolan's entire career has been building towards.
There were suspicions Oppenheimer could be the Oscar season frontrunner when the movie first hit theaters in July. Since then, it’s only further cemented itself as not only one of the films most likely to secure the most nominations but the most wins as well — including a Best Picture win. A widely beloved film like The Holdovers could continue to gain momentum and pose a threat in the coming months, but, at the moment, Oppenheimer appears to have a significant lead on the pack.
Release Date
July 21, 2023
Runtime
181 minutes
Director
The story of American scientist, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and his role in the development of the atomic bomb.
For predictions covering all the major categories, visit our complete Oscar prospectus here and keep coming back. This race is only just beginning.
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