Elke Weber | Columbia University (original) (raw)

Papers by Elke Weber

Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society, 2012

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 1993

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1990

Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2007

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1999

Ecological Modelling, 2011

The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone sig... more The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.► We present an agent-based model of agricultural systems in the Argentine Pampas. ► The model is intended to understand structural and land use changes in the Pampas. ► We provide an overview and details of the model following the ODD protocol. ► We discuss results from an initial set of simplified simulations.

American Psychologist, 2011

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

In social dilemmas, negotiations, and other forms of strategic interaction, mind-reading—intuitin... more In social dilemmas, negotiations, and other forms of strategic interaction, mind-reading—intuiting another party’s preferences and intentions—has an important impact on an actor’s own behavior. In this paper, we present a model of how perceivers shift between social projection (using one’s own mental states to intuit a counterpart’s mental states) and stereotyping (using general assumptions about a group to intuit a counterpart’s mental states). Study 1 extends prior work on perceptual dilemmas in arms races, examining Americans’ perceptions of Chinese attitudes toward military escalation. Study 2 adapts a prisoner’s dilemma, pairing participants with outgroup targets. Study 3 employs an ultimatum game, asking male and female participants to make judgments about opposite sex partners. Study 4 manipulates perceived similarity as well as counterpart stereotype in a principal–agent context. Across the studies, we find evidence for our central prediction: higher levels of perceived similarity are associated with increased projection and reduced stereotyping.► People use stereotyping and social projection to intuit counterpart mental states. ► Here, we show how people shift between these inferential strategies. ► Four studies examine mindreading in dilemmas and principal–agent contexts. ► Increased perceived similarity heightens projection and curbs stereotyping. ► Results emerge for both positive and negative stereotypes.

Simulated outcomes of agricultural production decisions in the Argentine Pampas were used to exam... more Simulated outcomes of agricultural production decisions in the Argentine Pampas were used to examine “optimal” land allocations among different crops identified by maximization of the objective functions associated with expected utility and prospect theories. We propose a more mathematically tractable formulation for the prospect theory value-function maximization, and explore results for a broad parameter space. Optimal actions differ among some objective functions and parameter values, especially for land tenants, whose enterprise allocation is less constrained by rotations. Our results demonstrate in a nonlaboratory decision context that psychologically plausible deviations from EU maximization matter.

Climatic Change, 2009

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern ... more In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.

Journal of Institutional Economics, 2007

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2003

Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 1995

This chapter discusses the robustness of preference reversals as well as the research in the doma... more This chapter discusses the robustness of preference reversals as well as the research in the domain of risky decision making that goes beyond simple demonstrations of preference reversals based on a few pairs of gambles. It explains how the entire preference order over a large set of gambles changes with the response mode. It examines preference reversals in a riskless domain in which subjects state their preferences for apartments using choices and ratings of attractiveness. The chapter proposes a two-pronged theory of preference reversals. The attribute judged more important has a greater effect in choices than in ratings. There is also an explanation as to how two pronged theory, which assume that subjects change either strategies or weights across tasks, give a coherent account of many important properties of the data while allowing the elicitation of utilities or psychological values to remain constant across tasks. The chapter illustrates that, with the appropriate models, utilities are stable and have meaning over and beyond the task from which they are derived.

Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2011