Nikhar Gaikwad | Columbia University (original) (raw)

Papers by Nikhar Gaikwad

What are the legacies of violence on gendered patterns of political representation? We examine th... more What are the legacies of violence on gendered patterns of political representation? We examine the long-term effects of a watershed conflict of the twentieth century: the Khmer Rouge genocide, during which 50–70% of Cambodia’s working-age men were killed. Using original data on mass killings and economic and political conditions in Cambodian communes, we find that genocide exposure is positively associated with women’s economic advancement and present-day indicators of women’s representation in local-level elected office. We conduct in-depth, ethnographic interviews with genocide survivors to explore the mechanisms by which violence spurred women into elected office. A crucial finding emerges: In areas that suffered the genocide’s worst killings, widows obtained economic autonomy, providing a template for the economic advancement of women in households maintaining conventional gender roles. The shift in norms regarding the sexual division of labor created intra-communal and intergenerational pathways by which women adopted larger public roles over time.

Journal of Politics, 2021

What explains the gender gap in political engagement and economic policy preferences? Many schola... more What explains the gender gap in political engagement and economic policy preferences? Many scholars point to material resources, while others credit cultural determinants. We identify and test an important link between these factors: cultural lineage norms that structure entitlements to resources. Studying the relationship between culture and resources is challenging in societies where both disadvantage women. We analyze a unique setting: northeast India, where matrilineal tribes live alongside patrilineal communities. Patriarchal cultures and political institutions are shared, but lineage norms are distinct: patrilineal groups distribute inherited wealth through men, while matrilineal tribes do so via women. We conduct survey and behavioral experiments with representative samples of both communities, alongside extensive qualitative research, and find that the gender gap reverses across patrilineal and matrilineal groups. Our results indicate that lineage norms—which determine who gets to make decisions about wealth and how—are key determinants of the political economy gender gap.

American Journal of Political Science, 2020

Rural-to-urban migration is reshaping the economic and social landscape of the Global South. Yet ... more Rural-to-urban migration is reshaping the economic and social landscape of the Global South. Yet migrants often struggle to integrate into cities. We conduct countrywide audit experiments in India to test whether urban politicians discriminate against internal migrants in providing constituency services. Signaling that a citizen is a city newcomer, as opposed to a long-term resident, causes incumbent politicians to be significantly less likely to respond to requests for help. Standard "nativist" concerns do not appear to explain this representation gap. We theorize that migrants are structurally disposed to participate in destination-area elections at lower rates than long-term residents. Knowing this, reelection-minded politicians decline to cater to migrant interests. Follow-up experiments support the hypothesis. We expect our findings to generalize to fast-urbanizing democracies, with implications for international immigration too. Policywise, mitigating migrants' de facto disenfranchisement should improve their welfare.

Perspectives on Politics, 2021

In recent years, a variety of efforts have been made in political science to enable, encourage, o... more In recent years, a variety of efforts have been made in political science to enable, encourage, or require scholars to be more open and explicit about the bases of their empirical claims and, in turn, make those claims more readily evaluable by others. While qualitative scholars have long taken an interest in making their research open, reflexive, and systematic, the recent push for overarching transparency norms and requirements has provoked serious concern within qualitative research communities and raised fundamental questions about the meaning, value, costs, and intellectual relevance of transparency for qualitative inquiry. In this Perspectives Reflection, we crystallize the central findings of a three-year deliberative process-the Qualitative Transparency Deliberations (QTD)-involving hundreds of political scientists in a broad discussion of these issues. Following an overview of the process and the key insights that emerged, we present summaries of the QTD Working Groups' final reports. Drawing on a series of public, online conversations that unfolded at www.qualtd.net, the reports unpack transparency's promise, practicalities, risks, and limitations in relation to different qualitative methodologies, forms of evidence, and research contexts. Taken as a whole, these reports-the full versions of which can be found in the Supplementary Materials-offer practical guidance to scholars designing and implementing qualitative research, and to editors, reviewers, and funders seeking to develop criteria of evaluation that are appropriate-as understood by relevant research communities-to the forms of inquiry being assessed. We dedicate this Reflection to the memory of our coauthor and QTD working group leader Kendra Koivu.

British Journal of Political Science, 2018

How do crises affect trade policy? This article reconciles starkly diverging accounts in the lite... more How do crises affect trade policy? This article reconciles starkly diverging accounts in the literature by showing that economic adversity generates endogenous incentives not only for protection, but also for liberalization. It first formally develops the mechanisms by which two features of shocks-intensity and duration-influence the resources and political strategies of distressed firms. The central insight is that policy adjustments to resuscitate afflicted industries typically generate 'knock-on' effects on the profitability and political maneuverings of other firms in the economy. The study incorporates these countervailing pressures in its analysis of trade policy competition. In the wake of crises, protection initially increases when affected firms lobby for assistance, but then decreases as industries run low on resources to expend on lobbying and as firms in other industries mobilize to counter-lobby. The theoretical predictions are tested using sub-national and cross-national data, and real-world illustrations are presented to highlight the mechanisms driving the results.

American Journal of Political Science, 2017

Rapid urbanization is among the major processes affecting the developing world. The influx of mig... more Rapid urbanization is among the major processes affecting the developing world. The influx of migrants to cities frequently provokes antagonism on the part of long-term residents, manifested in labor market discrimination, political nativism, and violence. We implemented a novel, face-to-face survey experiment on a representative sample of Mumbai's population to elucidate the causes of anti-migrant hostility. Our findings point to the centrality of material self-interest in the formation of native attitudes. Dominant group members fail to heed migrants' ethnic attributes, yet for minority group respondents, considerations of ethnicity and economic threat crosscut. We introduce a new political mechanism to explain this divergence. Minority communities facing persistent discrimination view in-migration by coethnics as a means of enlarging their demographic and electoral base, thereby achieving "safety in numbers." Our article sheds light on the drivers of preferences over internal migration. It also contributes insights to the international immigration literature and to policy debates over urban expansion.

Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2013

I exploit the sudden and dramatic jolt that Osama Bin Laden's capture gave to Barack Obama's 2012... more I exploit the sudden and dramatic jolt that Osama Bin Laden's capture gave to Barack Obama's 2012 re-election prospects to gauge the relationship between presidential prospects and stock market valuation changes. Using campaign contributions as an indicator of political support, I find that following Bin Laden's death, firms that had previously supported Democrats registered significant positive returns, whereas firms that had supported Republicans registered significant negative returns. Across the S&P 500, the president's transformed re-election prospects shifted market capital worth 101billionoveronedayand101 billion over one day and 101billionoveronedayand245 billion over one week. My findings indicate that the relationship between the presidency and firm valuations is associated with patterns of past political support, substantively and significantly important, and more pronounced for the presidency than for Congress.

In evaluating the impact of colonialism on long-term political economy outcomes , scholars have f... more In evaluating the impact of colonialism on long-term political economy outcomes , scholars have focused on political institutions developed during colonial rule. I argue, in contrast, that the beginnings of long-term economic transformation pre-dated the colonial era, and were not driven by formal institutional changes. Centuries prior to the period of military annexation, European trading companies drew local economies into networks of long-distance maritime trade, transforming geographical and social patterns of economic organization. I use original archival data to study the impact of trading hubs built in India by the various European East India Companies before colonization. My analysis reveals a systematic and robust relationship between pre-colonial commercial developments and modern indicators of economic transformation, even after addressing a plethora of selection concerns. Overall, my evidence indicates that the pre-colonial commercial era was more significant than the colonial era in redirecting India's long-term development trajectories.

This paper provides the first systematic examination of the role of security concerns in shaping ... more This paper provides the first systematic examination of the role of security concerns in shaping mass preferences over international economic exchange. We develop a theoretical framework that incorporates two countervailing forces that are expected to inform public opinion about trade: citizens favor integration when they anticipate that economic linkages can foster peace, yet they oppose trade when they fear negative security externalities emanating from such exchanges. We employ survey and case study evidence, along with several survey experiments in the United States and India, to investigate how voters evaluate these core tradeoffs. We find that security externalities dominate in the public’s mind. Citizens consistently prefer trading with allies over adversaries. The heightened salience of economic statecraft in public opinion suggests that core assumptions in interdependence theory about the role of citizens might warrant revisiting. These findings help explain why economic cooperation can be elusive in the shadow of conflict.

Migrants are politically marginalized in cities of the developing world, participating in destina... more Migrants are politically marginalized in cities of the developing world, participating in destination-area elections less than local-born residents. We theorize three reasons for this shortfall: migrant’s socio-economic links to origin regions; bureaucratic obstacles to enrollment that disproportionately burden newcomers; and ostracism by anti-migrant politicians. We randomized a door-to-door drive to facilitate voter registration among internal migrants to two Indian cities. Ties to origin regions do not predict willingness to become registered locally. Meanwhile, assistance navigating the electoral bureaucracy increased migrant registration rates by 24 percentage points and substantially boosted next-election turnout. An additional treatment arm informed politicians about the drive in a subset of localities; rather than ignoring new migrant voters, elites amplified campaign efforts in response. We conclude that onerous registration requirements impede the political incorporation, and thus the wellbeing, of migrant communities in fast-urbanizing settings. The findings also matter for assimilating naturalized yet politically excluded cross-border immigrants.

Millions of people migrate overseas for employment each year, and many more in sending communitie... more Millions of people migrate overseas for employment each year, and many more in sending communities evaluate the prospect of doing so. Cross-border migration opportunities open new avenues of economic advancement, particularly for members of historically marginalized groups. How do international employment opportunities affect individuals’ political preferences and behavior? Partnering with local governmental and non-governmental organizations in Mizoram, India, we conducted a randomized controlled trial connecting individuals from Scheduled Tribe communities seeking overseas employment with well-paying jobs in the Persian Gulf region’s hospitality sector. We surveyed subjects after a training and recruitment program but before emigration, isolating the effects of mobility-related economic prospects from the actual experience of migrating. The prospect of economic gain from migration shifted both individuals’ policy preferences and their willingness to mobilize politically to achieve policy change. Those offered the opportunity to migrate became significantly less supportive of state-led redistribution and more active in local electoral politics. Our results demonstrate how migration opportunities in the global economy can shape political behavior in sending countries and empower individuals from disadvantaged communities.

Combating climate change requires large economic adjustments with significant distributional impl... more Combating climate change requires large economic adjustments with significant distributional implications. To build coalitions of support, scholars and policymakers propose compensating individuals who will bear decarbonization's costs. What are the determinants of public opinion regarding climate compensation and investment? We present theory to explicate how distinct sources of vulnerability influence preferences for different types of climate policy. Fielding original surveys in the United States and India, we show that people who reside in coal-producing regions prefer compensation for lost jobs. By contrast, the general public privileges diffuse redistribution mechanisms and investments, discounting compensation to targeted groups. Those who are both ecologically and economically vulnerable have cross-cutting preferences. We connect coal country's distinctive compensatory preferences to a logic of shared identity. Our findings have implications for the 'just energy' transition and for the study of embedded liberalism and redistributive policymaking in the global economy.

In ethnically ranked societies, the gains from trade hold redistributive implications for members... more In ethnically ranked societies, the gains from trade hold redistributive implications for members of different ethnic groups. In this paper, we argue that trade provides new avenues of economic advancement for individuals belonging to ethnic groups that have historically been excluded from domestic labor markets and compartmentalized into lower-skilled occupations. In developing countries that hold a comparative advantage in producing lower-skilled labor-intensive goods, members of discriminated ethnic groups therefore stand to gain relatively more from an open economy. We present evidence from three large, post-election surveys of Indian voters from the period 1999 to 2009 to show that individuals belonging to disadvantaged caste and religious communities are significantly more likely to support trade liberalization. We then probe the mechanisms underlying this finding by using an original survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of Indian voters. We find that members of dominant ethnic groups focus exclusively on economic considerations while developing trade policy preferences. For members of discriminated groups, by contrast, ethnicity considerations are paramount and reinforce the effects of material self-interest. Our findings point to ethnicity as a key determinant of economic policy preferences regarding globalization for disempowered communities in ethnically segmented societies.

Conventional wisdom holds that colonial trading relations were a one-way street: trade policy coe... more Conventional wisdom holds that colonial trading relations were a one-way street: trade policy coerced colonies to export raw materials to the metropole and in turn purchase large quantities of manufactured goods from the empire’s industrial centers, thus hamstringing local industries. We argue that this narrative overlooks a critical feature of interwar history: the devolution of limited representation to key colonies. Self-government created an avenue for manufacturers in colonies to register their preferences over preferential trade policy, providing a new bulwark against imperial commercial exploitation. We theorize that the extension of limited franchise markedly altered trading relations between metropoles and colonies — specifically, by endowing colonial parliaments with trade policy authority. We evaluate this claim through a deep examination of trade policymaking in British India. Using an original dataset of all product-level import tariffs in India from 1904 to 1950, as well as archival records of local legislative debates and confidential correspondence, we show that incipient democracy eroded Britain’s ability to shape India’s tariff policy to suit British manufacturers’ needs. The introduction of a limited franchise shifted the balance of power in trade policy from British to Indian interests, illustrating how electoral autonomy reduced the rapacity of colonial power.

CP: Newsletter of the Comparative Politics Organized Section of the American Political Science Association, 2019

Comparative South Asia, 2013

Review of Globalization and Economic Nationalism in Asia, by Anthony P. D’Costa, ed.