Navroz Dubash - Centre for Policy Research (original) (raw)

Papers by Navroz Dubash

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory Practice and Politics: Lessons from Independent Regulation in Indian Electricity

Social Science Research Network, Nov 27, 2007

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright

Research paper thumbnail of Building Productive Links between the UNFCCC and the Broader Global Climate Governance Landscape1. This article reflects and builds upon discussions at a December 2013 workshop held in Neemrana, India, sponsored by the Centre for Policy Research (New Delhi) and the Mitigation Action Plans and Sce...

Global Environmental Politics, May 1, 2015

Global climate governance has undergone a significant transformation in the past decade. Previous... more Global climate governance has undergone a significant transformation in the past decade. Previously it might reasonably have been characterized as a system governed by the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, with a secondary role for national policy regimes. Since then, a large array of governance initiatives acting across international borders have joined the UNFCCC regime, including those created by subgroups of governments, private sector actors of various types (specific industrial sectors, institutional investors, etc.), non-governmental organizations, and subnational actors like cities and regions. These initiatives are variously understood through ideas such as transnational, private, or non-state governance. 2 Many academic and policy debates about the UNFCCC, however, have largely ignored these developments. "Multilateralists" tend to focus on the design of intergovernmental agreements, with an at least implicit assumption that a "good" design of such a climate regime, combined with national government action, would be necessary and perhaps sufficient to meet the challenge of climate change. 3 By contrast, many "transnationalists" are pessimistic about the multilateral process and at times ignore the UNFCCC and its role, instead focusing on the conditions that give rise to alternative forms of climate governance and how these activities might collectively result in climate governance from the "bottom up." 4 In practice, we know these two spheres interact. The latest round of UNFCCC negotiations launched in Durban in 2011 focuses on increasing

Research paper thumbnail of National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

Do not cite, quote or distribute 6 of 107 Chapter 15 WGIII_AR5_FD_Ch15 17 December 2013 mitigatio... more Do not cite, quote or distribute 6 of 107 Chapter 15 WGIII_AR5_FD_Ch15 17 December 2013 mitigation) (high confidence). In Europe where fuel taxes are highest they have contributed to reductions in carbon emissions from the transport sector of roughly 50% for this group of countries. The short-run response to higher fuel prices is often small, but long-run price elasticities are quite high: or roughly-0.6 to-0.8. This means that in the long run, 10% higher fuel prices correlate with 7% reduction in fuel use and emissions. In the transport sector, taxes have the advantage of being progressive or neutral in most countries and strongly progressive in low-income countries. [15.5.2] Reduction of subsidies to fossil energy can result in significant emission reductions at negative social cost (high confidence). [15.5.2] Although political economy barriers are substantial, many countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies, that actually accrue to the relatively wealthy, and utilized lump-sum cash transfers or other mechanisms that are more targeted to the poor. [15.5.3] Cap and trade systems for greenhouse gases are being established in a growing number of countries and regions (limited evidence, medium agreement). Their environmental effect has so far been limited because caps have either been loose or have not yet been binding. There appears to have been a trade-off between the political feasibility and environmental effectiveness of these programs, as well as between political feasibility and distributional equity in the allocation of permits. Greater environmental effectiveness through a tighter cap may be combined with a price ceiling that makes for political feasibility. [15.5.3] Carbon taxes have been implemented in some countries and-alongside technology and other policies-have contributed to decoupling of emissions from GDP (high confidence). Differentiation by sector, which is quite common, reduces cost-effectiveness that arises from the changes in production methods, consumption patterns, lifestyle shifts, and technology development, but it may increase political feasibility, or be preferred for reasons of competitiveness or distributional equity. In some countries, high carbon and fuel taxes have been made politically feasible by refunding revenues or by lowering other taxes in an environmental fiscal reform.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory practice and politics: Lessons from independent regulation in Indian electricity

Utilities Policy, Dec 1, 2008

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright

Research paper thumbnail of Corrigendum: India’s energy and emissions future: an interpretive analysis of model scenarios (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 074018)

Environmental Research Letters, Jul 30, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of India’s energy and emissions future: an interpretive analysis of model scenarios

Environmental Research Letters, Jul 1, 2018

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a lo... more As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a low emissions base, India is an important actor in global climate change mitigation. However, perceptions of India vary widely, from an energy-hungry climate deal-breaker to a forerunner of a low carbon future. Developing clarity on India's energy and emissions future is challenged by the uncertainties of India's development transitions, including its pathway through a demographic and urban transition within a rapidly changing policy context. Model-based scenario analyses provide widely varying projections, in part because they make differing assumptions, often implicit, about these transitions. To address the uncertainty in India's energy and emissions future, this letter applies a novel interpretive approach to existing scenario studies. First, we make explicit the implied development, technology and policy assumptions underlying model-based analysis in order to cluster and interpret results. In a second step, we analyse India's current policy landscape and use that as a benchmark against which to judge scenario assumptions and results. Using this interpretive approach, we conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India's CO 2 energy-related emissions from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound for its 2030 emissions and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India's Paris emissions intensity pledge. Because of its low emissions starting point, even after a doubling, India's 2030 per capita emissions will be below today's global average and absolute emissions will be less than half of China's 2015 emissions from the same sources. The analysis of recent policy trends further suggests a lower than expected electricity demand and a faster than expected transition from coal to renewable electricity. The letter concludes by making an argument for interpretive approaches as a necessary complement to scenario analysis, particularly in rapidly changing development contexts.

Research paper thumbnail of Development challenge around multiple objectives: Rethinking India’s energy policy

Development challenge around multiple objectives: Rethinking India’s energy policy

Economic and Political Weekly, Aug 8, 2020

An energy supply approach is inadequate to India’s energy requirements at a time when multiple ob... more An energy supply approach is inadequate to India’s energy requirements at a time when multiple objectives need to be addressed. The state of play in energy supply and demand is examined, and the recovery of an older tradition of attention to energy demand patterns in addition to energy supply is argued for. The gains from an explicit attention to the fact that India has to address multiple and simultaneous objectives in shaping energy policymaking are laid out, and emerging methodologies to serve this goal are discussed. Shifts in governance patterns are a necessary part of transitioning to a broader, and more development-focused approach to energy policy

Research paper thumbnail of Development and climate policy synergies: insights from global modelling studies

Research paper thumbnail of India's Energy and Emissions Future: A Synthesis of Recent Scenarios

Social Science Research Network, 2017

Global perceptions of India's climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that... more Global perceptions of India's climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that Indian energy needs could jeopardise climate futures, India is increasingly seen as a forerunner of a low carbon future. This Perspective synthesizes scenario studies to more accurately delineate India's future energy and carbon trajectory and explores the conditions that will shape alternative futures. We conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India's CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound, and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India's Paris emissions intensity pledge. Policy scenarios suggest scope for reduced emissions growth, but this scope is more limited in national development-based scenarios than pure decarbonisation scenarios. Conditions that will drive future emissions include the energy-intensive nature of India's future job creation, the ability to lock-in energy efficient measures, and the sustainability of recent renewable energy price trends.

Research paper thumbnail of Informing India's energy and climate debate: policy lessons from modelling studies

What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or 'Intend... more What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or 'Intended Nationally Determined Contribution' (INDC))? Since energy accounts for 77% of India's greenhouse gas emissions, this question can only be answered as one part of a larger discussion about India's energy future. To inform this discussion, models provide one potentially useful tool, if used appropriately. It is important that assumptions are clear, relevant policy questions are credibly explored and that results are clearly explained. This study conducts a comparative review of seven recent Indiafocused (not global) modelling studies that cover CO 2 emissions from the energy and industry sectors to explore Indian energy and emissions futures until 2030, with the explicit intention of informing several policy salient questions. The analysis focuses on the substantive results and bases of the reference scenarios that project the effect of current policies, and comments on the construction and comparability of the various low-carbon policy scenarios. How do studies inform the multiple sustainable development objectives of energy policy? India's 12 th Five Year Plan, and National Action Plan on Climate Change, promote a sustainable development approach to achieving multiple development objectives, highlighting energy for growth, energy security, inclusion, local environmental goals and addressing climate change. At the moment, however, available modelling approaches provide a limited analytical base to inform such multiple objective-based decision-making. Key gaps include: Energy demand and hence energy efficiency potential is comprehensively discussed by fewer than half the studies. There is also very limited coverage of non-commercial biomass use; Energy security is addressed by three studies, but with limited effect, since they do not fully internalize future production, world energy prices, or reserves; Income distribution is included in the analysis by one study, but with limited insights for policy; Local environmental issues, such as air quality are considered, but not presented, by two studies, although none examine land or water implications. Incorporating multiple policy dimensions into models requires significant additional effort. Nevertheless, filling these gaps in the future would make modelling studies more relevant for policy. What are the future trajectories of Indian energy demand and supply? Energy demand Despite its significance for understanding the scope for energy efficiency, several studies (more than half) do not provide comprehensive data on final energy demand. Based on the limited available data (3 out of 7 studies), transport and industry are projected to increase their share of total demand in reference scenarios, while the buildings sector share declines considerably, and agriculture reduces to a lesser extent. Notably, in comparison to recent growth rates in these sectors, these projections imply that growth in the buildings sector (including cooking) would slow down considerably and growth in agriculture would increase marginally. The basis for these latter trends is not explained, though likely driven in part by shifts from inefficient biomass to LPG for cooking. Fossil fuel energy supply and energy security Energy supply trends diverge considerably across studies, even in reference cases that seek to project the effects of current policies. However, a few policy relevant aspects of India's fossil energy supply future can be discerned: By 2030, coal use is projected in reference cases to be 2.5-3 times current levels. Even under additional energy/climate policy scenarios, coal use is projected by all but one study to be more than 2 times current levels;

Research paper thumbnail of Will international investment rules obstruct climate protection policies

Rules governing the global environment and the international economy are currently decided in sep... more Rules governing the global environment and the international economy are currently decided in separate arenas. Yet, environmental agreements can have strong economic implications, particularly with the growing use of market mechanisms. Economic liberalization rules, meanwhile, may limit the effectiveness of environmental agreements. This Climate Note assesses the potential interaction between one important market-based environmental mechanism-the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-and the framework of international investment law.

Research paper thumbnail of Growing in the greenhouse : protecting the climate by putting development first

World Resources Institute eBooks, 2005

The many helpful comments and suggestions we received substantially improved the manuscript. Any ... more The many helpful comments and suggestions we received substantially improved the manuscript. Any remaining errors and omissions are, of course, the responsibility of the editors. Not least, we would like to thank those at WRI who were generous with their time and input as this report progressed.

Research paper thumbnail of Political implications of data presentation

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction to the Special Issue: Governing Energy in a Fragmented World

Global Policy, Sep 1, 2011

This special issue brings together leading experts from Asia, Europe and North America to examine... more This special issue brings together leading experts from Asia, Europe and North America to examine the international institutions, national governance mechanisms and financing systems that together will determine the future of the energy sector. The enormous environmental externalities imposed by fossil fuel extraction and consumption, the devastating corruption and human rights abuses that have accompanied this energy system, and the geopolitical vulnerabilities that have arisen because of the uneven natural distribution of these resources, have occasioned enormous handwringing-but not, yet, a shift to a more rational system of providing energy services. Although national governments play the dominant role in energy governance, these challenges are beyond the scope of any single national government to manage, making energy policy a key component of global governance and international relations.

Research paper thumbnail of National climate institutions complement targets and policies

National climate institutions complement targets and policies

Science, Nov 5, 2021

Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

Research paper thumbnail of Who determines transformational change in development and climate finance?

Climate Policy, Apr 18, 2015

The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.

Research paper thumbnail of Correction to: Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Climatic Change, Mar 15, 2019

The article Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a "right to extr... more The article Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a "right to extract," written by Sivan Kartha, Simon Caney, Navroz K. Dubash, and Greg Muttitt, was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 24 May 2018 without open access.

Research paper thumbnail of Environmental security as a criterion for decision‐making

Environmental security as a criterion for decision‐making

Conflict, Security & Development, Dec 1, 2004

Michael Renner’s paper on environmental security provides a useful starting point for discussing ... more Michael Renner’s paper on environmental security provides a useful starting point for discussing the relationships among the traditionally defined environment, security, and development policy arenas. The paper’s strengths suggest why it is important to explore these relationships, while its weaknesses exemplify the definitional and conceptual challenges of establishing robust and policy-relevant links. We begin this comment with a brief set of reactions to Renner’s paper, suggesting areas requiring further attention or definition. In subsequent sections, we discuss the problems of defining ‘environmental security’ and an appropriate conceptual framework. Using a framework that has been proposed in the literature, we identify elements of a policy agenda that emerge from a more precise delineation of the realm of environmental security, and suggest high priority avenues of policy research to support that agenda.

Research paper thumbnail of Mapping Global Energy Governance

Global Policy, Sep 1, 2011

The challenges inherent in energy policy form an increasingly large proportion of the great issue... more The challenges inherent in energy policy form an increasingly large proportion of the great issues of global governance. These energy challenges reflect numerous transnational market or governance failures, and their solutions are likely to require a number of global components that can support or constrain national energy policy. Governing energy globally requires approaches that can simultaneously cope with three realities: the highly fragmented and conflictual nature of the current interstate system's efforts to govern energy; the diversity of institutions and actors relevant to energy; and the dominance of national processes of energy decision making that are not effectively integrated into global institutions.

Research paper thumbnail of National climate institutions complement targets and policies ; Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

National climate institutions complement targets and policies ; Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory Practice and Politics: Lessons from Independent Regulation in Indian Electricity

Social Science Research Network, Nov 27, 2007

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright

Research paper thumbnail of Building Productive Links between the UNFCCC and the Broader Global Climate Governance Landscape1. This article reflects and builds upon discussions at a December 2013 workshop held in Neemrana, India, sponsored by the Centre for Policy Research (New Delhi) and the Mitigation Action Plans and Sce...

Global Environmental Politics, May 1, 2015

Global climate governance has undergone a significant transformation in the past decade. Previous... more Global climate governance has undergone a significant transformation in the past decade. Previously it might reasonably have been characterized as a system governed by the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, with a secondary role for national policy regimes. Since then, a large array of governance initiatives acting across international borders have joined the UNFCCC regime, including those created by subgroups of governments, private sector actors of various types (specific industrial sectors, institutional investors, etc.), non-governmental organizations, and subnational actors like cities and regions. These initiatives are variously understood through ideas such as transnational, private, or non-state governance. 2 Many academic and policy debates about the UNFCCC, however, have largely ignored these developments. "Multilateralists" tend to focus on the design of intergovernmental agreements, with an at least implicit assumption that a "good" design of such a climate regime, combined with national government action, would be necessary and perhaps sufficient to meet the challenge of climate change. 3 By contrast, many "transnationalists" are pessimistic about the multilateral process and at times ignore the UNFCCC and its role, instead focusing on the conditions that give rise to alternative forms of climate governance and how these activities might collectively result in climate governance from the "bottom up." 4 In practice, we know these two spheres interact. The latest round of UNFCCC negotiations launched in Durban in 2011 focuses on increasing

Research paper thumbnail of National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

Do not cite, quote or distribute 6 of 107 Chapter 15 WGIII_AR5_FD_Ch15 17 December 2013 mitigatio... more Do not cite, quote or distribute 6 of 107 Chapter 15 WGIII_AR5_FD_Ch15 17 December 2013 mitigation) (high confidence). In Europe where fuel taxes are highest they have contributed to reductions in carbon emissions from the transport sector of roughly 50% for this group of countries. The short-run response to higher fuel prices is often small, but long-run price elasticities are quite high: or roughly-0.6 to-0.8. This means that in the long run, 10% higher fuel prices correlate with 7% reduction in fuel use and emissions. In the transport sector, taxes have the advantage of being progressive or neutral in most countries and strongly progressive in low-income countries. [15.5.2] Reduction of subsidies to fossil energy can result in significant emission reductions at negative social cost (high confidence). [15.5.2] Although political economy barriers are substantial, many countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies, that actually accrue to the relatively wealthy, and utilized lump-sum cash transfers or other mechanisms that are more targeted to the poor. [15.5.3] Cap and trade systems for greenhouse gases are being established in a growing number of countries and regions (limited evidence, medium agreement). Their environmental effect has so far been limited because caps have either been loose or have not yet been binding. There appears to have been a trade-off between the political feasibility and environmental effectiveness of these programs, as well as between political feasibility and distributional equity in the allocation of permits. Greater environmental effectiveness through a tighter cap may be combined with a price ceiling that makes for political feasibility. [15.5.3] Carbon taxes have been implemented in some countries and-alongside technology and other policies-have contributed to decoupling of emissions from GDP (high confidence). Differentiation by sector, which is quite common, reduces cost-effectiveness that arises from the changes in production methods, consumption patterns, lifestyle shifts, and technology development, but it may increase political feasibility, or be preferred for reasons of competitiveness or distributional equity. In some countries, high carbon and fuel taxes have been made politically feasible by refunding revenues or by lowering other taxes in an environmental fiscal reform.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulatory practice and politics: Lessons from independent regulation in Indian electricity

Utilities Policy, Dec 1, 2008

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright

Research paper thumbnail of Corrigendum: India’s energy and emissions future: an interpretive analysis of model scenarios (2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 074018)

Environmental Research Letters, Jul 30, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of India’s energy and emissions future: an interpretive analysis of model scenarios

Environmental Research Letters, Jul 1, 2018

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a lo... more As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a low emissions base, India is an important actor in global climate change mitigation. However, perceptions of India vary widely, from an energy-hungry climate deal-breaker to a forerunner of a low carbon future. Developing clarity on India's energy and emissions future is challenged by the uncertainties of India's development transitions, including its pathway through a demographic and urban transition within a rapidly changing policy context. Model-based scenario analyses provide widely varying projections, in part because they make differing assumptions, often implicit, about these transitions. To address the uncertainty in India's energy and emissions future, this letter applies a novel interpretive approach to existing scenario studies. First, we make explicit the implied development, technology and policy assumptions underlying model-based analysis in order to cluster and interpret results. In a second step, we analyse India's current policy landscape and use that as a benchmark against which to judge scenario assumptions and results. Using this interpretive approach, we conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India's CO 2 energy-related emissions from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound for its 2030 emissions and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India's Paris emissions intensity pledge. Because of its low emissions starting point, even after a doubling, India's 2030 per capita emissions will be below today's global average and absolute emissions will be less than half of China's 2015 emissions from the same sources. The analysis of recent policy trends further suggests a lower than expected electricity demand and a faster than expected transition from coal to renewable electricity. The letter concludes by making an argument for interpretive approaches as a necessary complement to scenario analysis, particularly in rapidly changing development contexts.

Research paper thumbnail of Development challenge around multiple objectives: Rethinking India’s energy policy

Development challenge around multiple objectives: Rethinking India’s energy policy

Economic and Political Weekly, Aug 8, 2020

An energy supply approach is inadequate to India’s energy requirements at a time when multiple ob... more An energy supply approach is inadequate to India’s energy requirements at a time when multiple objectives need to be addressed. The state of play in energy supply and demand is examined, and the recovery of an older tradition of attention to energy demand patterns in addition to energy supply is argued for. The gains from an explicit attention to the fact that India has to address multiple and simultaneous objectives in shaping energy policymaking are laid out, and emerging methodologies to serve this goal are discussed. Shifts in governance patterns are a necessary part of transitioning to a broader, and more development-focused approach to energy policy

Research paper thumbnail of Development and climate policy synergies: insights from global modelling studies

Research paper thumbnail of India's Energy and Emissions Future: A Synthesis of Recent Scenarios

Social Science Research Network, 2017

Global perceptions of India's climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that... more Global perceptions of India's climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that Indian energy needs could jeopardise climate futures, India is increasingly seen as a forerunner of a low carbon future. This Perspective synthesizes scenario studies to more accurately delineate India's future energy and carbon trajectory and explores the conditions that will shape alternative futures. We conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India's CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound, and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India's Paris emissions intensity pledge. Policy scenarios suggest scope for reduced emissions growth, but this scope is more limited in national development-based scenarios than pure decarbonisation scenarios. Conditions that will drive future emissions include the energy-intensive nature of India's future job creation, the ability to lock-in energy efficient measures, and the sustainability of recent renewable energy price trends.

Research paper thumbnail of Informing India's energy and climate debate: policy lessons from modelling studies

What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or 'Intend... more What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution (or 'Intended Nationally Determined Contribution' (INDC))? Since energy accounts for 77% of India's greenhouse gas emissions, this question can only be answered as one part of a larger discussion about India's energy future. To inform this discussion, models provide one potentially useful tool, if used appropriately. It is important that assumptions are clear, relevant policy questions are credibly explored and that results are clearly explained. This study conducts a comparative review of seven recent Indiafocused (not global) modelling studies that cover CO 2 emissions from the energy and industry sectors to explore Indian energy and emissions futures until 2030, with the explicit intention of informing several policy salient questions. The analysis focuses on the substantive results and bases of the reference scenarios that project the effect of current policies, and comments on the construction and comparability of the various low-carbon policy scenarios. How do studies inform the multiple sustainable development objectives of energy policy? India's 12 th Five Year Plan, and National Action Plan on Climate Change, promote a sustainable development approach to achieving multiple development objectives, highlighting energy for growth, energy security, inclusion, local environmental goals and addressing climate change. At the moment, however, available modelling approaches provide a limited analytical base to inform such multiple objective-based decision-making. Key gaps include: Energy demand and hence energy efficiency potential is comprehensively discussed by fewer than half the studies. There is also very limited coverage of non-commercial biomass use; Energy security is addressed by three studies, but with limited effect, since they do not fully internalize future production, world energy prices, or reserves; Income distribution is included in the analysis by one study, but with limited insights for policy; Local environmental issues, such as air quality are considered, but not presented, by two studies, although none examine land or water implications. Incorporating multiple policy dimensions into models requires significant additional effort. Nevertheless, filling these gaps in the future would make modelling studies more relevant for policy. What are the future trajectories of Indian energy demand and supply? Energy demand Despite its significance for understanding the scope for energy efficiency, several studies (more than half) do not provide comprehensive data on final energy demand. Based on the limited available data (3 out of 7 studies), transport and industry are projected to increase their share of total demand in reference scenarios, while the buildings sector share declines considerably, and agriculture reduces to a lesser extent. Notably, in comparison to recent growth rates in these sectors, these projections imply that growth in the buildings sector (including cooking) would slow down considerably and growth in agriculture would increase marginally. The basis for these latter trends is not explained, though likely driven in part by shifts from inefficient biomass to LPG for cooking. Fossil fuel energy supply and energy security Energy supply trends diverge considerably across studies, even in reference cases that seek to project the effects of current policies. However, a few policy relevant aspects of India's fossil energy supply future can be discerned: By 2030, coal use is projected in reference cases to be 2.5-3 times current levels. Even under additional energy/climate policy scenarios, coal use is projected by all but one study to be more than 2 times current levels;

Research paper thumbnail of Will international investment rules obstruct climate protection policies

Rules governing the global environment and the international economy are currently decided in sep... more Rules governing the global environment and the international economy are currently decided in separate arenas. Yet, environmental agreements can have strong economic implications, particularly with the growing use of market mechanisms. Economic liberalization rules, meanwhile, may limit the effectiveness of environmental agreements. This Climate Note assesses the potential interaction between one important market-based environmental mechanism-the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-and the framework of international investment law.

Research paper thumbnail of Growing in the greenhouse : protecting the climate by putting development first

World Resources Institute eBooks, 2005

The many helpful comments and suggestions we received substantially improved the manuscript. Any ... more The many helpful comments and suggestions we received substantially improved the manuscript. Any remaining errors and omissions are, of course, the responsibility of the editors. Not least, we would like to thank those at WRI who were generous with their time and input as this report progressed.

Research paper thumbnail of Political implications of data presentation

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction to the Special Issue: Governing Energy in a Fragmented World

Global Policy, Sep 1, 2011

This special issue brings together leading experts from Asia, Europe and North America to examine... more This special issue brings together leading experts from Asia, Europe and North America to examine the international institutions, national governance mechanisms and financing systems that together will determine the future of the energy sector. The enormous environmental externalities imposed by fossil fuel extraction and consumption, the devastating corruption and human rights abuses that have accompanied this energy system, and the geopolitical vulnerabilities that have arisen because of the uneven natural distribution of these resources, have occasioned enormous handwringing-but not, yet, a shift to a more rational system of providing energy services. Although national governments play the dominant role in energy governance, these challenges are beyond the scope of any single national government to manage, making energy policy a key component of global governance and international relations.

Research paper thumbnail of National climate institutions complement targets and policies

National climate institutions complement targets and policies

Science, Nov 5, 2021

Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

Research paper thumbnail of Who determines transformational change in development and climate finance?

Climate Policy, Apr 18, 2015

The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content.

Research paper thumbnail of Correction to: Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Climatic Change, Mar 15, 2019

The article Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a "right to extr... more The article Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a "right to extract," written by Sivan Kartha, Simon Caney, Navroz K. Dubash, and Greg Muttitt, was originally published electronically on the publisher's internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 24 May 2018 without open access.

Research paper thumbnail of Environmental security as a criterion for decision‐making

Environmental security as a criterion for decision‐making

Conflict, Security & Development, Dec 1, 2004

Michael Renner’s paper on environmental security provides a useful starting point for discussing ... more Michael Renner’s paper on environmental security provides a useful starting point for discussing the relationships among the traditionally defined environment, security, and development policy arenas. The paper’s strengths suggest why it is important to explore these relationships, while its weaknesses exemplify the definitional and conceptual challenges of establishing robust and policy-relevant links. We begin this comment with a brief set of reactions to Renner’s paper, suggesting areas requiring further attention or definition. In subsequent sections, we discuss the problems of defining ‘environmental security’ and an appropriate conceptual framework. Using a framework that has been proposed in the literature, we identify elements of a policy agenda that emerge from a more precise delineation of the realm of environmental security, and suggest high priority avenues of policy research to support that agenda.

Research paper thumbnail of Mapping Global Energy Governance

Global Policy, Sep 1, 2011

The challenges inherent in energy policy form an increasingly large proportion of the great issue... more The challenges inherent in energy policy form an increasingly large proportion of the great issues of global governance. These energy challenges reflect numerous transnational market or governance failures, and their solutions are likely to require a number of global components that can support or constrain national energy policy. Governing energy globally requires approaches that can simultaneously cope with three realities: the highly fragmented and conflictual nature of the current interstate system's efforts to govern energy; the diversity of institutions and actors relevant to energy; and the dominance of national processes of energy decision making that are not effectively integrated into global institutions.

Research paper thumbnail of National climate institutions complement targets and policies ; Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

National climate institutions complement targets and policies ; Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy

Institutions can affect coordination, consensus, and strategy