Patrick Foley | California State University, Sacramento (original) (raw)

Papers by Patrick Foley

Research paper thumbnail of Rapid Assessment and Stochastic Modeling to Avert Extinction in the Endangered Amargosa Vole

Wildlife Biology in Practice, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of Flea (Siphonaptera) Burdens on the Endangered San Joaquin Kit Fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica (Carnivora, Canidae)) Inhabiting Urban and Nonurban Environments in Central Valley, California

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 13, 2018

The San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica Merriam (Carnivora, Canidae)) is an endangered sm... more The San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica Merriam (Carnivora, Canidae)) is an endangered small carnivore endemic to the San Joaquin Valley of California. Commercial and agricultural land expansion has contributed to the species' decline and invasion of more cosmopolitan species, providing means for potential ecological shifts in disease vector and host species. Fleas are common ectoparasites that can serve as important indicators of cross-species interactions and disease risk. We compared flea load and species composition on kit foxes inhabiting urban and nonurban habitats to determine how urbanization affects flea diversity and potential disease spillover from co-occurring species. We identified Echidnophaga gallinacea (Westwood) (Siphonaptera, Pulicidae) and Pulex spp. (L.) in both urban and nonurban populations, and Ctenocephalides felis (Bouche) (Siphonaptera, Pulicidae) only in the urban population. Flea load scores differed significantly across capture sites and with...

Research paper thumbnail of Rodent-Pika Parasite Spillover in Western North America

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 15, 2017

Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological nich... more Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological niche reduction of pikas, which are now increasingly under threat as their habitat degrades under global climate change, while some rodents expand their ranges and overlap with pikas. Range overlap carries the possibility of disease spillover. Contemporary North American pikas are cold-adapted and relegated primarily to alpine environments where they subsist on relatively low-quality herbaceous diet. Yet their evolutionary ancestors were distributed geographically even into the subtropics. Here we examine historical and contemporary records of fleas on pikas (Ochotona princeps) from sites at different elevations in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. We calculated indices of diversity from each site and spillover fraction, i.e., the proportion of fleas on pikas that have a preference for rodents. Across this range there are four pika specialist flea species, with...

Research paper thumbnail of Diversity of rickettsiae in a rural community in northern California

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, 2017

Far northern California forests are highly biodiverse in wildlife reservoirs and arthropod vector... more Far northern California forests are highly biodiverse in wildlife reservoirs and arthropod vectors that may propagate rickettsial pathogens in nature. The proximity of small rural communities to these forests puts people and domestic animals at risk of vector-borne infection due to spillover from wildlife. The current study was conducted to document exposure to rickettsial pathogens in people and domestic animals in a rural community, and identify which rickettsiae are present in sylvatic and peri-domestic environments near this community. Blood samples from people, domestic animals (dogs, cats, and horses) and wild carnivores were tested for Rickettsia spp. antibodies and DNA (people and domestic animals only) by serology and real time (RT)-PCR, respectively. Ectoparasites were collected from dogs, wild carnivores and from vegetation by flagging, and tested for Rickettsia spp. DNA by RT-PCR. DNA sequencing of the rickettsial 17kDa protein gene or the ompA gene was used for species identification. Despite a seroprevalence of 3% in people, 42% in dogs, 79% in cats, 33% in gray foxes, and 83% in bobcats, RT-PCR on blood was consistently negative, likely because the sensitivity of this test is low, as Rickettsia spp. do not often circulate in high numbers in the blood. Rickettsia spp. DNA was found in four flea species collected from bobcats and Ctenocephalides felis collected from domestic dogs. All amplicons sequenced from fleas were R. felis. Ixodes pacificus collected by flagging were commonly infected with a Rickettsia sp. endosymbiont. Rickettsia rhipicephali DNA was found in Dermacentor variabilis from dogs, black bears, a gray fox, and a D. occidentalis collected by flagging. Dermacentor variabilis from dogs and black bears also contained R. montanensis DNA. Multiple Rickettsia spp. (including species with zoonotic and pathogenic potential) were found among human biting arthropod vectors of both wild and domestic carnivores and on flags. Knowledge of the diversity of Rickettsia spp. that are present within arthropod vectors to which people and domestic animals are exposed is an essential first step is making an accurate diagnosis and in better understanding the epidemiology of these potential pathogens. Within-host and vector interaction among these species may play a role in spillover into human and domestic animals.

Research paper thumbnail of Disease dynamics in marine metapopulations: modelling infectious diseases on coral reefs

Journal of Applied Ecology, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial distribution of seropositivity to the causative agent of granulocytic ehrlichiosis in dogs in California

Http Dx Doi Org 10 2460 Ajvr 2001 62 1599, Dec 7, 2005

To assess spatial and temporal patterns of seroprevalence among dogs in California to the causati... more To assess spatial and temporal patterns of seroprevalence among dogs in California to the causative agent of granulocytic ehrlichiosis (GE). Sera of 1,082 clinically normal dogs from 54 of 59 counties in California in 1997 to 1998. Serum-specific IgG reactivity to Ehrlichia equi was assessed by use of an immunofluorescent antibody assay, using E. equi-infected horse neutrophils as substrate. Data were analyzed, using a geographic information system. Spatial analysis of seroprevalence included first order Bayesian analysis of seroprevalence and second order analysis of clustering by K-function and Cuzick-Edwards tests. Monthly seroprevalence among dogs was examined by use of regression on monthly densities of Ixodes pacificus adults and nymphs. Seroprevalence among dogs to E. equi was 8.68%. Data were seasonally bimodal with highest prevalence in winter (when adult ticks were abundant) and a secondary peak in late spring (corresponding to nymphal ticks). Humboldt County had the highest seroprevalence (47.3%), and other northern coast range counties had seroprevalence from 15 to 30%. The patchy distribution of exposure to Ehrlichia organisms is a subset of the distribution of the tick vector. This may reflect enzootic cycles or climatic or historical factors that limited the range of the disease. Dogs, horses, and humans from north coast range counties in California are at increased risk of GE. These data provide a background for assessing risk of infection in horses and dogs, depending on geographic location. Dogs may be sentinels for assessing risk of GE in humans.

Research paper thumbnail of Ectoparasite Diversity and Exposure to Vector-Borne Disease Agents in Wild Rodents in Central Coastal California

Journal of Medical Entomology, Apr 1, 2007

A survey of wild rodents was performed in the Morro Bay area of central coastal California to det... more A survey of wild rodents was performed in the Morro Bay area of central coastal California to determine serological and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum Dumler, Barbet, Bekker, Dasch, Palmer, Ray, Rikihisa, and Rurangirwa, Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmidt, Hyde, Steigerwalt, and Brenner, Francisella tularensis McCoy, and Yersinia pestis Yersin; to describe the ectoparasitic fauna on important vector-borne disease hosts; and to determine whether pathogen exposure was associated with infestation by ectoparasites. We trapped 411 rodents from 10 species in 2004 and 2005. Anaplasma phagocytophilum exposure was detected in 11% of all wild rodents tested, with seropositive animals in eight species. Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA was detected by PCR amplification in Neotoma fuscipes Baird and Reithrodontomys megalotis Baird (0.6% of all rodents). Yersinia spp. exposure was identified in 3.2% of all rodents tested, with highest detected exposure in peridomestic rodents, Mus musculus L. (20%), and Rattus rattus L. (50%). No individuals tested positive for the Y. pestis pla gene by PCR. In total, 338 fleas were identified from each of 10 rodent species examined. The most abundant flea was Malareus telchinus Rothschild. Relative density of flea infestation was highest on Spermophilus beecheyi Richardson and Microtus californicus Peale. Ticks recovered from trapped animals included Ixodes angustus Neumann, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls, Ixodes spinipalpis Hadwen & Nuttall, and Dermacentor occidentalis Marx. Given the moderate climate and diversity of rodents and arthropods in the Morro Bay area, ongoing investigation of this region will be helpful in understanding disease maintenance cycles.

Research paper thumbnail of Small populations genetic variability at loci under stabilizing selection

Research paper thumbnail of Ectoparasites of Microtus californicus and Possible Emergence of an Exotic Ixodes Species Tick in California

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 23, 2015

California voles (Microtus californicus Peale) harbor fleas and ticks, may be infected with vecto... more California voles (Microtus californicus Peale) harbor fleas and ticks, may be infected with vector-borne pathogens, and could themselves suffer from disease and serve as a source of infection for people and other animals. Here we summarize publications, museum archives, and recent records of ticks and fleas from California voles. There have been 18 flea species reported on California voles with geographic locations reported for 13. During recent statewide surveys, we found six flea species, with the highest species richness in Humboldt County. We found three of five previously reported tick species as well as a tick resembling the eastern North American tick Ixodes minor Neumann (which we here designate Ixodes "Mojave morphotype") on isolated Amargosa voles and Owens Valley voles (Microtus californicus vallicola Bailey) in Inyo County in 2012 and 2014. Additional incidental observations of this Mojave morphotype tick were on a western harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys megalot...

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling population viability and extinction risk in the presence of parasitism

Extinction times for endangered species at the local and metapopulation level can be strongly, no... more Extinction times for endangered species at the local and metapopulation level can be strongly, nonlinearly affected by the parasite load.

Research paper thumbnail of Initiation and spread of traveling waves of plague, Yersinia pestis, in the western United States

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2007

Yersinia pestis invaded the continental United States in 1900 and subsequently became established... more Yersinia pestis invaded the continental United States in 1900 and subsequently became established in wild rodent populations in several western states, traversing 2,250 km in approximately 40 years. However, the specific path of the eastward expansion of plague into the United States is poorly understood. We directly calculated velocities of disease spread and performed trend-surface analyses on spatio-temporally unique plague cases to clarify the route and speed of the initial spread of plague eastward. Velocities of disease spread were then analyzed using multiple linear regression models to identify environmental features that significantly impacted the rate of spread. Between one and three introductions of plague along the Pacific coast were observed, after which plague traveled from 45 to 87 km/year. In all regression models, the coast ranges of California were associated with slower spread, and the Southern Rockies were associated with a significant increase in the rate of dis...

Research paper thumbnail of Problems in Extinction Model Selection and Parameter Estimation

Environmental management, 2000

It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess populatio... more It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess population viability for habitat conservation plans. Rather than a hypothesis-testing approach, here it is proposed to select population models, estimate extinction parameters, and assess prediction uncertainty using a pragmatic, empirical Bayesian approach. The simplest usable models include the effects of population growth, r; carrying capacity, K; Allee threshold, N(A); and environmental stochasticity, v(r). Analytic predictions of expected extinction times are available for such models. Models that are more complex can be elaborated from this basis. Selection from a hierarchy of nesting population models can often be done through the evaluation of parameters. The estimation of the most important extinction parameters can be undertaken in a variety of ways. Time series can be analyzed to estimate r(d), v(r), rho, and K. Habitat models and individualistic population models may help estimate N(A...

Research paper thumbnail of Eosinophilic enteritis in a cat

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 1991

Research paper thumbnail of Extinction Models for Local Populations

Metapopulation Biology, 1997

ABSTRACT Essentially a summary of Foley (1994, Conservation Biology 8: 124-137), but with some ex... more ABSTRACT Essentially a summary of Foley (1994, Conservation Biology 8: 124-137), but with some extension of the theory.

Research paper thumbnail of Ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western United States

Journal of vector ecology : journal of the Society for Vector Ecology, 2004

We discuss the ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western U.S. ... more We discuss the ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western U.S. These agents, while emerging in the eastern U.S., remain stable or rare in the west. In the western U.S., tick vectors and mammalian hosts for B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum are distinct from those in the eastern U.S. and considerably more variable. Spatial complexity, local extinctions, and low levels of movement among foci may determine the distribution and prevalence of these agents. High-prevalence A. phagocytophilum patches may be transient, possibly as host individuals become immune. Thus, A. phagocytophilum in California could exist in a metapopulation of interacting patches. Local dynamics are sensitive to host population sizes and minimum tick infestation levels. Determining critical values for these key factors and their interactions will be important for predicting the level and distribution of future infections in the western U.S.

Research paper thumbnail of Ticks and tick-borne disease in Guatemalan cattle and horses

Veterinary Parasitology, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling Susceptible Infective Recovered Dynamics and Plague Persistence in California Rodent–Flea Communities

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Zoonotic Bartonella Species in Fleas Collected on Gray Foxes ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus )

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Molecular clock rates at loci under stabilizing selection

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1987

Research paper thumbnail of Rapid Assessment and Stochastic Modeling to Avert Extinction in the Endangered Amargosa Vole

Wildlife Biology in Practice, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of Flea (Siphonaptera) Burdens on the Endangered San Joaquin Kit Fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica (Carnivora, Canidae)) Inhabiting Urban and Nonurban Environments in Central Valley, California

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 13, 2018

The San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica Merriam (Carnivora, Canidae)) is an endangered sm... more The San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica Merriam (Carnivora, Canidae)) is an endangered small carnivore endemic to the San Joaquin Valley of California. Commercial and agricultural land expansion has contributed to the species' decline and invasion of more cosmopolitan species, providing means for potential ecological shifts in disease vector and host species. Fleas are common ectoparasites that can serve as important indicators of cross-species interactions and disease risk. We compared flea load and species composition on kit foxes inhabiting urban and nonurban habitats to determine how urbanization affects flea diversity and potential disease spillover from co-occurring species. We identified Echidnophaga gallinacea (Westwood) (Siphonaptera, Pulicidae) and Pulex spp. (L.) in both urban and nonurban populations, and Ctenocephalides felis (Bouche) (Siphonaptera, Pulicidae) only in the urban population. Flea load scores differed significantly across capture sites and with...

Research paper thumbnail of Rodent-Pika Parasite Spillover in Western North America

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 15, 2017

Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological nich... more Competition during the Cenozoic expansion of the Rodentia may have contributed to ecological niche reduction of pikas, which are now increasingly under threat as their habitat degrades under global climate change, while some rodents expand their ranges and overlap with pikas. Range overlap carries the possibility of disease spillover. Contemporary North American pikas are cold-adapted and relegated primarily to alpine environments where they subsist on relatively low-quality herbaceous diet. Yet their evolutionary ancestors were distributed geographically even into the subtropics. Here we examine historical and contemporary records of fleas on pikas (Ochotona princeps) from sites at different elevations in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest. We calculated indices of diversity from each site and spillover fraction, i.e., the proportion of fleas on pikas that have a preference for rodents. Across this range there are four pika specialist flea species, with...

Research paper thumbnail of Diversity of rickettsiae in a rural community in northern California

Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases, 2017

Far northern California forests are highly biodiverse in wildlife reservoirs and arthropod vector... more Far northern California forests are highly biodiverse in wildlife reservoirs and arthropod vectors that may propagate rickettsial pathogens in nature. The proximity of small rural communities to these forests puts people and domestic animals at risk of vector-borne infection due to spillover from wildlife. The current study was conducted to document exposure to rickettsial pathogens in people and domestic animals in a rural community, and identify which rickettsiae are present in sylvatic and peri-domestic environments near this community. Blood samples from people, domestic animals (dogs, cats, and horses) and wild carnivores were tested for Rickettsia spp. antibodies and DNA (people and domestic animals only) by serology and real time (RT)-PCR, respectively. Ectoparasites were collected from dogs, wild carnivores and from vegetation by flagging, and tested for Rickettsia spp. DNA by RT-PCR. DNA sequencing of the rickettsial 17kDa protein gene or the ompA gene was used for species identification. Despite a seroprevalence of 3% in people, 42% in dogs, 79% in cats, 33% in gray foxes, and 83% in bobcats, RT-PCR on blood was consistently negative, likely because the sensitivity of this test is low, as Rickettsia spp. do not often circulate in high numbers in the blood. Rickettsia spp. DNA was found in four flea species collected from bobcats and Ctenocephalides felis collected from domestic dogs. All amplicons sequenced from fleas were R. felis. Ixodes pacificus collected by flagging were commonly infected with a Rickettsia sp. endosymbiont. Rickettsia rhipicephali DNA was found in Dermacentor variabilis from dogs, black bears, a gray fox, and a D. occidentalis collected by flagging. Dermacentor variabilis from dogs and black bears also contained R. montanensis DNA. Multiple Rickettsia spp. (including species with zoonotic and pathogenic potential) were found among human biting arthropod vectors of both wild and domestic carnivores and on flags. Knowledge of the diversity of Rickettsia spp. that are present within arthropod vectors to which people and domestic animals are exposed is an essential first step is making an accurate diagnosis and in better understanding the epidemiology of these potential pathogens. Within-host and vector interaction among these species may play a role in spillover into human and domestic animals.

Research paper thumbnail of Disease dynamics in marine metapopulations: modelling infectious diseases on coral reefs

Journal of Applied Ecology, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial distribution of seropositivity to the causative agent of granulocytic ehrlichiosis in dogs in California

Http Dx Doi Org 10 2460 Ajvr 2001 62 1599, Dec 7, 2005

To assess spatial and temporal patterns of seroprevalence among dogs in California to the causati... more To assess spatial and temporal patterns of seroprevalence among dogs in California to the causative agent of granulocytic ehrlichiosis (GE). Sera of 1,082 clinically normal dogs from 54 of 59 counties in California in 1997 to 1998. Serum-specific IgG reactivity to Ehrlichia equi was assessed by use of an immunofluorescent antibody assay, using E. equi-infected horse neutrophils as substrate. Data were analyzed, using a geographic information system. Spatial analysis of seroprevalence included first order Bayesian analysis of seroprevalence and second order analysis of clustering by K-function and Cuzick-Edwards tests. Monthly seroprevalence among dogs was examined by use of regression on monthly densities of Ixodes pacificus adults and nymphs. Seroprevalence among dogs to E. equi was 8.68%. Data were seasonally bimodal with highest prevalence in winter (when adult ticks were abundant) and a secondary peak in late spring (corresponding to nymphal ticks). Humboldt County had the highest seroprevalence (47.3%), and other northern coast range counties had seroprevalence from 15 to 30%. The patchy distribution of exposure to Ehrlichia organisms is a subset of the distribution of the tick vector. This may reflect enzootic cycles or climatic or historical factors that limited the range of the disease. Dogs, horses, and humans from north coast range counties in California are at increased risk of GE. These data provide a background for assessing risk of infection in horses and dogs, depending on geographic location. Dogs may be sentinels for assessing risk of GE in humans.

Research paper thumbnail of Ectoparasite Diversity and Exposure to Vector-Borne Disease Agents in Wild Rodents in Central Coastal California

Journal of Medical Entomology, Apr 1, 2007

A survey of wild rodents was performed in the Morro Bay area of central coastal California to det... more A survey of wild rodents was performed in the Morro Bay area of central coastal California to determine serological and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) prevalence of Anaplasma phagocytophilum Dumler, Barbet, Bekker, Dasch, Palmer, Ray, Rikihisa, and Rurangirwa, Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmidt, Hyde, Steigerwalt, and Brenner, Francisella tularensis McCoy, and Yersinia pestis Yersin; to describe the ectoparasitic fauna on important vector-borne disease hosts; and to determine whether pathogen exposure was associated with infestation by ectoparasites. We trapped 411 rodents from 10 species in 2004 and 2005. Anaplasma phagocytophilum exposure was detected in 11% of all wild rodents tested, with seropositive animals in eight species. Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA was detected by PCR amplification in Neotoma fuscipes Baird and Reithrodontomys megalotis Baird (0.6% of all rodents). Yersinia spp. exposure was identified in 3.2% of all rodents tested, with highest detected exposure in peridomestic rodents, Mus musculus L. (20%), and Rattus rattus L. (50%). No individuals tested positive for the Y. pestis pla gene by PCR. In total, 338 fleas were identified from each of 10 rodent species examined. The most abundant flea was Malareus telchinus Rothschild. Relative density of flea infestation was highest on Spermophilus beecheyi Richardson and Microtus californicus Peale. Ticks recovered from trapped animals included Ixodes angustus Neumann, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls, Ixodes spinipalpis Hadwen & Nuttall, and Dermacentor occidentalis Marx. Given the moderate climate and diversity of rodents and arthropods in the Morro Bay area, ongoing investigation of this region will be helpful in understanding disease maintenance cycles.

Research paper thumbnail of Small populations genetic variability at loci under stabilizing selection

Research paper thumbnail of Ectoparasites of Microtus californicus and Possible Emergence of an Exotic Ixodes Species Tick in California

Journal of medical entomology, Jan 23, 2015

California voles (Microtus californicus Peale) harbor fleas and ticks, may be infected with vecto... more California voles (Microtus californicus Peale) harbor fleas and ticks, may be infected with vector-borne pathogens, and could themselves suffer from disease and serve as a source of infection for people and other animals. Here we summarize publications, museum archives, and recent records of ticks and fleas from California voles. There have been 18 flea species reported on California voles with geographic locations reported for 13. During recent statewide surveys, we found six flea species, with the highest species richness in Humboldt County. We found three of five previously reported tick species as well as a tick resembling the eastern North American tick Ixodes minor Neumann (which we here designate Ixodes "Mojave morphotype") on isolated Amargosa voles and Owens Valley voles (Microtus californicus vallicola Bailey) in Inyo County in 2012 and 2014. Additional incidental observations of this Mojave morphotype tick were on a western harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys megalot...

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling population viability and extinction risk in the presence of parasitism

Extinction times for endangered species at the local and metapopulation level can be strongly, no... more Extinction times for endangered species at the local and metapopulation level can be strongly, nonlinearly affected by the parasite load.

Research paper thumbnail of Initiation and spread of traveling waves of plague, Yersinia pestis, in the western United States

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2007

Yersinia pestis invaded the continental United States in 1900 and subsequently became established... more Yersinia pestis invaded the continental United States in 1900 and subsequently became established in wild rodent populations in several western states, traversing 2,250 km in approximately 40 years. However, the specific path of the eastward expansion of plague into the United States is poorly understood. We directly calculated velocities of disease spread and performed trend-surface analyses on spatio-temporally unique plague cases to clarify the route and speed of the initial spread of plague eastward. Velocities of disease spread were then analyzed using multiple linear regression models to identify environmental features that significantly impacted the rate of spread. Between one and three introductions of plague along the Pacific coast were observed, after which plague traveled from 45 to 87 km/year. In all regression models, the coast ranges of California were associated with slower spread, and the Southern Rockies were associated with a significant increase in the rate of dis...

Research paper thumbnail of Problems in Extinction Model Selection and Parameter Estimation

Environmental management, 2000

It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess populatio... more It is a vexing problem to achieve a consensus about the proper scientific way to assess population viability for habitat conservation plans. Rather than a hypothesis-testing approach, here it is proposed to select population models, estimate extinction parameters, and assess prediction uncertainty using a pragmatic, empirical Bayesian approach. The simplest usable models include the effects of population growth, r; carrying capacity, K; Allee threshold, N(A); and environmental stochasticity, v(r). Analytic predictions of expected extinction times are available for such models. Models that are more complex can be elaborated from this basis. Selection from a hierarchy of nesting population models can often be done through the evaluation of parameters. The estimation of the most important extinction parameters can be undertaken in a variety of ways. Time series can be analyzed to estimate r(d), v(r), rho, and K. Habitat models and individualistic population models may help estimate N(A...

Research paper thumbnail of Eosinophilic enteritis in a cat

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, 1991

Research paper thumbnail of Extinction Models for Local Populations

Metapopulation Biology, 1997

ABSTRACT Essentially a summary of Foley (1994, Conservation Biology 8: 124-137), but with some ex... more ABSTRACT Essentially a summary of Foley (1994, Conservation Biology 8: 124-137), but with some extension of the theory.

Research paper thumbnail of Ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western United States

Journal of vector ecology : journal of the Society for Vector Ecology, 2004

We discuss the ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western U.S. ... more We discuss the ecology of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi in the western U.S. These agents, while emerging in the eastern U.S., remain stable or rare in the west. In the western U.S., tick vectors and mammalian hosts for B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum are distinct from those in the eastern U.S. and considerably more variable. Spatial complexity, local extinctions, and low levels of movement among foci may determine the distribution and prevalence of these agents. High-prevalence A. phagocytophilum patches may be transient, possibly as host individuals become immune. Thus, A. phagocytophilum in California could exist in a metapopulation of interacting patches. Local dynamics are sensitive to host population sizes and minimum tick infestation levels. Determining critical values for these key factors and their interactions will be important for predicting the level and distribution of future infections in the western U.S.

Research paper thumbnail of Ticks and tick-borne disease in Guatemalan cattle and horses

Veterinary Parasitology, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling Susceptible Infective Recovered Dynamics and Plague Persistence in California Rodent–Flea Communities

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Zoonotic Bartonella Species in Fleas Collected on Gray Foxes ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus )

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Molecular clock rates at loci under stabilizing selection

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1987