Jairo R Coronado-Hernández | Universidad de la Costa (original) (raw)

Papers by Jairo R Coronado-Hernández

Entropy, 2024

Complexity management in manufacturing systems is crucial for the economic growth of countries, a... more Complexity management in manufacturing systems is crucial for the economic growth of countries, as efficient management can significantly improve business performance and ensure competitiveness in globalized markets. This research aims to develop a complexity management configurator that identifies critical effects, proposes solution strategies, and optimizes processes through a Lean Production and Industry 4.0 approach. To this end, its systematic design integrates the key stages of management: planning, organization, management and control. The research was structured as an applied study, implementing three main panels: general information, application of a diagnostic tool at each stage of the administrative process, and results focused on measuring the complexity and implementation of advanced technological solutions. The tool enables manufacturing companies not only to diagnose sources of complexity, but also to optimize their operations by adopting Lean methodologies and Industry 4.0 technologies. The findings show how the integration of these strategies contributes to reducing both static and dynamic complexity, resulting in greater operational efficiency and improved performance in an increasingly competitive industrial environment. In conclusion, the proposed configurator is positioned as a key tool to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of manufacturing companies by offering a comprehensive approach to complexity management that is tailored to the demands of modern industry.

OPSEARCH , 2024

Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions asso... more Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions associated with business rules and containerisation strategies, in order to make decisions in a more holistic model and to seek an improvement in the planning process. This paper proposes a mathematical MRP-C model with containerisation constraints based on mixed integer linear programming, whose objective is to minimise total operating costs. The methodology structures a decision-making system with an integrated supply chain approach, which means that decisions impact on the different agents. The findings show a comparative result with data from a real system and a sensitivity analysis with other scenarios. The research suggests future avenues by including uncertainty and nervousness analysis, service level constraints and lost sales costs in the model and the robust optimization approach.

OPSEARCH , 2024

Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions asso... more Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions associated with business rules and containerisation strategies, in order to make decisions in a more holistic model and to seek an improvement in the planning process. This paper proposes a mathematical MRP-C model with containerisation constraints based on mixed integer linear programming, whose objective is to minimise total operating costs. The methodology structures a decision-making system with an integrated supply chain approach, which means that decisions impact on the different agents. The findings show a comparative result with data from a real system and a sensitivity analysis with other scenarios. The research suggests future avenues by including uncertainty and nervousness analysis, service level constraints and lost sales costs in the model and the robust optimization approach.

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2024

The need for more and better information for decision making is fundamental in modern organizatio... more The need for more and better information for decision making is fundamental in modern organizations, especially in the financial industry. One type of this information is time series, which allow prediction and estimation of different scenarios, but are difficult to obtain for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This research presents the design and validation of a generative adversarial network (GAN) capable of generating synthetic data for daily sales of Chilean SME. The problem that needs to be resolved is the lack of this kind of data within a Chilean fintech company called Dank. This data can be useful in developing an automatic risk evaluation model and, therefore, in reducing business process time, since risk evaluation is currently being carried out by people. The solution allows maintaining the anonymity of the data and using GAN to obtain different synthetic time series, increasing the data by 10%. It uses images from a vector of random numbers that are in temporal coherence and equal distribution. This research allows SMEs to obtain a greater amount of data, with a simple solution, to make better decisions.

Applied Sciences, 2024

In the everchanging landscape of human mobility and commerce, efficient route planning has become... more In the everchanging landscape of human mobility and commerce, efficient route planning has become paramount. This paper addresses the open vehicle routing problem (OVRP), a major logistical challenge in route optimization for a fleet of vehicles serving geographically dispersed customers. Using a heuristic approach, we explore the complexities of OVRP, comparing the results with advanced optimization methods. This study not only highlights the effectiveness of mathematical modeling, but also explores the practicality of heuristic algorithms such as Greedy, Nearest Neighbor and 2-opt to provide quality solutions. The findings highlight the nuanced interplay between solution quality and computational efficiency, providing valuable insights for addressing real-world logistics challenges. Recommendations delve into optimization opportunities and the integration of emerging technologies, ensuring adaptable solutions to the intricate the problem of open vehicle routing.

Procedia computer science, 2024

In this research work, a discrete event simulation model (DES) is developed as a digital twin of ... more In this research work, a discrete event simulation model (DES) is developed as a digital twin of the supply chain of Antarctic campaigns in a navy ship. This simulation aims to describe the system with all its details and complexity and, through this, support decision-making that identifies a supply chain configuration that significantly improves efficiency based on costs and operating times. For this, the Anylogistix simulation tool generates scenarios and visualizes results through charts and key performance indicators.

Water losses in water distribution systems are typically analysed using extended period simulatio... more Water losses in water distribution systems are typically analysed using extended period simulations, where its numerical resolution is commonly achieved using the gradient method. These models assume that adjustments to regulating valves occur, either manually or automatically, over an extended period of time, then the system inertia can be neglected. This research introduces the development of a rigid water column model for analysing water leakages in single pipelines, which can be employed to account for regulation valve adjustments in shorter time periods, thereby providing greater accuracy when assessing water losses. The application to a case study is presented to analyse pressure variations and leakage flow patterns over 30, 60, and 180 s. A comparison between the extended period simulation and rigid water column model is presented in order to note the order of magnitude on leakages when the system inertia is not considered. The results confirm that is crucial for water utilit...

Procedia Computer Science

The distribution process for thermolabile medicines requires special transportation conditions to... more The distribution process for thermolabile medicines requires special transportation conditions to maintain the necessary cold chain. Given the geography of Chile, the transportation times between and towards the di↵erent regions, usually located on extreme sides of the country, generate a logistical problem for pharmacies and drugstores. This work aims to evaluate an alternative type of container for thermolabile medicines transportation, to optimize the logistic process, lower costs, and increase the lifetime and capacity of the containers. An experimental model was made with the container to be evaluated where measurements were made in a controlled environment to identify its thermal stability. The results showed that the thermal container evaluated has high-level thermal stability and, regardless of its high cost compared to the standard thermal units. In the short term, the use of the container improves the unit acquisition costs, the thermal performance, and reduces the costs associated with the transport logistics operator and the drugstore.

Procedia Computer Science

Queuing theory allows simulating scenarios applied to requirements of events of stochastic origin... more Queuing theory allows simulating scenarios applied to requirements of events of stochastic origin to solve problems in the attention service of electrical networks. Regarding emergency reactions, companies may experience response time delays due to incorrect sizing of the number of crew members, among other parameters. So is the case for a company in the Chilean energy sector called Enel, which is currently experiencing response delay issues. A complete formulation is presented, which can be easily used for planning the crews required for attention to the response to electrical distribution system faults. The formulation is applied to an electrical distribution company located in Chile.

Water

The study of draining processes without admitting air has been conducted using only steady fricti... more The study of draining processes without admitting air has been conducted using only steady friction formulations in the implementation of governing equations. However, this hydraulic event involves transitions from laminar to turbulent flow, and vice versa, because of the changes in water velocity. In this sense, this research improves the current mathematical model considering unsteady friction models. An experimental facility composed by a 4.36 m long methacrylate pipe was configured, and measurements of air pocket pressure oscillations were recorded. The mathematical model was performed using steady and unsteady friction models. Comparisons between measured and computed air pocket pressure patterns indicated that unsteady friction models slightly improve the results compared to steady friction models.

Water

Emptying processes are typical maneuvers that should be performed by water distribution companies... more Emptying processes are typical maneuvers that should be performed by water distribution companies for operation purposes. These processes involve a complex numerical analysis, since a set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations needs to be solved for the intricacy of hydraulic and thermodynamic formulations for two analyzed phases (liquid and gas). This research provides an implicit equation to compute exactly the final conditions in water emptying operations in single pipelines without an air valve (or admitted air). The implicit expression was developed by considering that for all final conditions, the water velocity is null, and thus, the water column length and air pocket pressure can be computed. The friction factor, internal pipe diameter, and opening maneuvers of drain valves do not disturb the final conditions in draining processes. The developed implicit formulation was validated using experimental measurements in a pipeline with a total length of 4.36 m. The equat...

Water

The time of concentration is the time it takes a drop of water in a basin to travel from the most... more The time of concentration is the time it takes a drop of water in a basin to travel from the most distant point to the outlet, and is one of the most important parameters, along with the morphometric characteristics, for determining the design flow rate in rainfall-runoff models. This study aims to determine the sensitivity of the parameters included in different equations for the calculation of the time of concentration. A case study was conducted on small, urbanized watersheds in the city of Montería, Colombia. The study uses information obtained through field work using GPS equipment and electronic total station, supplemented by geographic information contained in the city drawings of the local sewage company, which includes data on elevations above sea level with sub-metric precision. The time of concentration determined by the 12 empirical equations was compared to the results obtained from the equation proposed by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), which was co...

Water

Previous soil moisture conditions play an important role in the design of hydraulic structures be... more Previous soil moisture conditions play an important role in the design of hydraulic structures because they are directly related to the runoff threshold associated with a return period. These represent one of the main determinants of the runoff response of a drainage basin. One of the main difficulties facing hydrologists in Colombia lies in the time spent gathering and analyzing information related to the selection of antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, complete records from 19 rainfall stations located in the Atlántico region, Colombia, were used to analyze the cumulative precipitation during the 5 days prior to the annual maximum daily precipitation associated with different return periods using the Gev, Gumbel, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson Type III probability distributions. Different interpolation methods (IDW, kriging and spline) were applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of the antecedent moisture conditions. The main contribution of this research is est...

Proceedings of the 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education, and Technology: Engineering, Integration, And Alliances for A Sustainable Development” “Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on A Knowledge-Based Economy”, 2020

Production in large quantities of different varieties of products creates issues in finding an op... more Production in large quantities of different varieties of products creates issues in finding an optimal planning solution. Adhesive tapes companies face that challenge. A multi-phased methodology is proposed to minimize production costs. In this it is considered different production variables. First phase divided a problem into subproblems to minimize computational complexity through an incidence matrix. Second phase formulated a linear programming model to determine production optimal batch sizes. Consequently, model is applied in a real company. Results showed a decrease in production costs in a range of 14%-43% for the different manufactured groups of components. In this way it is expected that more companies can apply similar models to improve their production indicators.

Computer Information Systems and Industrial Management, 2020

Chemical industries usually involve continuous and large-scale production processes that require ... more Chemical industries usually involve continuous and large-scale production processes that require demanding inventory control systems. This paper aims to show the results of the implementation of a mixed-integer programming model (MIP) based on the Generic Materials and Operations Planning Problem (GMOP) for optimizing the inventory turnover in a fertilizer company. Results showed significant improvements for Inventory Turnover Ratios and overall costs when compared with an empirical production planning method.

Additional file. Input data. Article: Assessment of organizational policies in a retail store bas... more Additional file. Input data. Article: Assessment of organizational policies in a retail store based on a simulation model.

Table 6. Observed time for stopwatch time study.

Procedia Computer Science, 2022

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate several machine learning models under the CRISP-DM metho... more The purpose of this paper is to evaluate several machine learning models under the CRISP-DM methodology in order to determine, through its metrics, the best model for predicting the performance of high school students in the Colombian Caribbean region in the Saber 11º test, while proposing a new methodology for evaluating the results of the test by regions in order to take into account the socioeconomic particularities of each one of them. The CRISP-DM methodology is taken as a basis due to its maturity, this methodology allows the extraction of business and data knowledge, offers a guide for data preparation, modeling and validation of the models; it is expected that the proposed methodology will be implemented by the Colombian Institute for the Promotion of Higher Education (ICFES), departmental education secretariats and educational institutions. A variety of techniques and tools were used to develop ETL processes to obtain a data set with the most relevant attributes, in order to evaluate four machine learning models developed with the J48 (C4.5), LMT, PART and Multilayer Perceptron algorithms; obtaining that the best data set and the best learning model is obtained using the InfoGain attribute selection method and the LMT decision tree algorithm, respectively. Therefore, this project will facilitate the actors of the National Education System to make decisions for the benefit of students and the quality of education in the country, especially in the Caribbean region.

Inventive Computation Technologies, 2019

Boletín de Innovación, Logística y Operaciones, 2019

Objetivo: Generar escenarios de demandas simulando el ciclo de vida del producto, cuando este no ... more Objetivo: Generar escenarios de demandas simulando el ciclo de vida del producto, cuando este no tiene información histórica o registro de ventas. Métodos: Se utilizan los modelos de difusión de la Curva Logística, Gompertz y Bass, junto con simulación de Montecarlo. Resultados: Se obtienen diferentes escenarios de demanda dado el comportamiento de los parámetros según su distribución de probabilidad. Conclusiones: Se utilizan los modelos de difusión para la generación de escenarios de demanda, como aproximación del potencial de realización de la demanda. Implicaciones prácticas: Los escenarios obtenidos se tomarán como entradas a modelos de programación matemática para la planificación de cadenas de suministro rápidas para productos de innovación.

Entropy, 2024

Complexity management in manufacturing systems is crucial for the economic growth of countries, a... more Complexity management in manufacturing systems is crucial for the economic growth of countries, as efficient management can significantly improve business performance and ensure competitiveness in globalized markets. This research aims to develop a complexity management configurator that identifies critical effects, proposes solution strategies, and optimizes processes through a Lean Production and Industry 4.0 approach. To this end, its systematic design integrates the key stages of management: planning, organization, management and control. The research was structured as an applied study, implementing three main panels: general information, application of a diagnostic tool at each stage of the administrative process, and results focused on measuring the complexity and implementation of advanced technological solutions. The tool enables manufacturing companies not only to diagnose sources of complexity, but also to optimize their operations by adopting Lean methodologies and Industry 4.0 technologies. The findings show how the integration of these strategies contributes to reducing both static and dynamic complexity, resulting in greater operational efficiency and improved performance in an increasingly competitive industrial environment. In conclusion, the proposed configurator is positioned as a key tool to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of manufacturing companies by offering a comprehensive approach to complexity management that is tailored to the demands of modern industry.

OPSEARCH , 2024

Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions asso... more Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions associated with business rules and containerisation strategies, in order to make decisions in a more holistic model and to seek an improvement in the planning process. This paper proposes a mathematical MRP-C model with containerisation constraints based on mixed integer linear programming, whose objective is to minimise total operating costs. The methodology structures a decision-making system with an integrated supply chain approach, which means that decisions impact on the different agents. The findings show a comparative result with data from a real system and a sensitivity analysis with other scenarios. The research suggests future avenues by including uncertainty and nervousness analysis, service level constraints and lost sales costs in the model and the robust optimization approach.

OPSEARCH , 2024

Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions asso... more Standard material requirement planning (MRP) systems do not include the purchasing decisions associated with business rules and containerisation strategies, in order to make decisions in a more holistic model and to seek an improvement in the planning process. This paper proposes a mathematical MRP-C model with containerisation constraints based on mixed integer linear programming, whose objective is to minimise total operating costs. The methodology structures a decision-making system with an integrated supply chain approach, which means that decisions impact on the different agents. The findings show a comparative result with data from a real system and a sensitivity analysis with other scenarios. The research suggests future avenues by including uncertainty and nervousness analysis, service level constraints and lost sales costs in the model and the robust optimization approach.

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2024

The need for more and better information for decision making is fundamental in modern organizatio... more The need for more and better information for decision making is fundamental in modern organizations, especially in the financial industry. One type of this information is time series, which allow prediction and estimation of different scenarios, but are difficult to obtain for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This research presents the design and validation of a generative adversarial network (GAN) capable of generating synthetic data for daily sales of Chilean SME. The problem that needs to be resolved is the lack of this kind of data within a Chilean fintech company called Dank. This data can be useful in developing an automatic risk evaluation model and, therefore, in reducing business process time, since risk evaluation is currently being carried out by people. The solution allows maintaining the anonymity of the data and using GAN to obtain different synthetic time series, increasing the data by 10%. It uses images from a vector of random numbers that are in temporal coherence and equal distribution. This research allows SMEs to obtain a greater amount of data, with a simple solution, to make better decisions.

Applied Sciences, 2024

In the everchanging landscape of human mobility and commerce, efficient route planning has become... more In the everchanging landscape of human mobility and commerce, efficient route planning has become paramount. This paper addresses the open vehicle routing problem (OVRP), a major logistical challenge in route optimization for a fleet of vehicles serving geographically dispersed customers. Using a heuristic approach, we explore the complexities of OVRP, comparing the results with advanced optimization methods. This study not only highlights the effectiveness of mathematical modeling, but also explores the practicality of heuristic algorithms such as Greedy, Nearest Neighbor and 2-opt to provide quality solutions. The findings highlight the nuanced interplay between solution quality and computational efficiency, providing valuable insights for addressing real-world logistics challenges. Recommendations delve into optimization opportunities and the integration of emerging technologies, ensuring adaptable solutions to the intricate the problem of open vehicle routing.

Procedia computer science, 2024

In this research work, a discrete event simulation model (DES) is developed as a digital twin of ... more In this research work, a discrete event simulation model (DES) is developed as a digital twin of the supply chain of Antarctic campaigns in a navy ship. This simulation aims to describe the system with all its details and complexity and, through this, support decision-making that identifies a supply chain configuration that significantly improves efficiency based on costs and operating times. For this, the Anylogistix simulation tool generates scenarios and visualizes results through charts and key performance indicators.

Water losses in water distribution systems are typically analysed using extended period simulatio... more Water losses in water distribution systems are typically analysed using extended period simulations, where its numerical resolution is commonly achieved using the gradient method. These models assume that adjustments to regulating valves occur, either manually or automatically, over an extended period of time, then the system inertia can be neglected. This research introduces the development of a rigid water column model for analysing water leakages in single pipelines, which can be employed to account for regulation valve adjustments in shorter time periods, thereby providing greater accuracy when assessing water losses. The application to a case study is presented to analyse pressure variations and leakage flow patterns over 30, 60, and 180 s. A comparison between the extended period simulation and rigid water column model is presented in order to note the order of magnitude on leakages when the system inertia is not considered. The results confirm that is crucial for water utilit...

Procedia Computer Science

The distribution process for thermolabile medicines requires special transportation conditions to... more The distribution process for thermolabile medicines requires special transportation conditions to maintain the necessary cold chain. Given the geography of Chile, the transportation times between and towards the di↵erent regions, usually located on extreme sides of the country, generate a logistical problem for pharmacies and drugstores. This work aims to evaluate an alternative type of container for thermolabile medicines transportation, to optimize the logistic process, lower costs, and increase the lifetime and capacity of the containers. An experimental model was made with the container to be evaluated where measurements were made in a controlled environment to identify its thermal stability. The results showed that the thermal container evaluated has high-level thermal stability and, regardless of its high cost compared to the standard thermal units. In the short term, the use of the container improves the unit acquisition costs, the thermal performance, and reduces the costs associated with the transport logistics operator and the drugstore.

Procedia Computer Science

Queuing theory allows simulating scenarios applied to requirements of events of stochastic origin... more Queuing theory allows simulating scenarios applied to requirements of events of stochastic origin to solve problems in the attention service of electrical networks. Regarding emergency reactions, companies may experience response time delays due to incorrect sizing of the number of crew members, among other parameters. So is the case for a company in the Chilean energy sector called Enel, which is currently experiencing response delay issues. A complete formulation is presented, which can be easily used for planning the crews required for attention to the response to electrical distribution system faults. The formulation is applied to an electrical distribution company located in Chile.

Water

The study of draining processes without admitting air has been conducted using only steady fricti... more The study of draining processes without admitting air has been conducted using only steady friction formulations in the implementation of governing equations. However, this hydraulic event involves transitions from laminar to turbulent flow, and vice versa, because of the changes in water velocity. In this sense, this research improves the current mathematical model considering unsteady friction models. An experimental facility composed by a 4.36 m long methacrylate pipe was configured, and measurements of air pocket pressure oscillations were recorded. The mathematical model was performed using steady and unsteady friction models. Comparisons between measured and computed air pocket pressure patterns indicated that unsteady friction models slightly improve the results compared to steady friction models.

Water

Emptying processes are typical maneuvers that should be performed by water distribution companies... more Emptying processes are typical maneuvers that should be performed by water distribution companies for operation purposes. These processes involve a complex numerical analysis, since a set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations needs to be solved for the intricacy of hydraulic and thermodynamic formulations for two analyzed phases (liquid and gas). This research provides an implicit equation to compute exactly the final conditions in water emptying operations in single pipelines without an air valve (or admitted air). The implicit expression was developed by considering that for all final conditions, the water velocity is null, and thus, the water column length and air pocket pressure can be computed. The friction factor, internal pipe diameter, and opening maneuvers of drain valves do not disturb the final conditions in draining processes. The developed implicit formulation was validated using experimental measurements in a pipeline with a total length of 4.36 m. The equat...

Water

The time of concentration is the time it takes a drop of water in a basin to travel from the most... more The time of concentration is the time it takes a drop of water in a basin to travel from the most distant point to the outlet, and is one of the most important parameters, along with the morphometric characteristics, for determining the design flow rate in rainfall-runoff models. This study aims to determine the sensitivity of the parameters included in different equations for the calculation of the time of concentration. A case study was conducted on small, urbanized watersheds in the city of Montería, Colombia. The study uses information obtained through field work using GPS equipment and electronic total station, supplemented by geographic information contained in the city drawings of the local sewage company, which includes data on elevations above sea level with sub-metric precision. The time of concentration determined by the 12 empirical equations was compared to the results obtained from the equation proposed by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), which was co...

Water

Previous soil moisture conditions play an important role in the design of hydraulic structures be... more Previous soil moisture conditions play an important role in the design of hydraulic structures because they are directly related to the runoff threshold associated with a return period. These represent one of the main determinants of the runoff response of a drainage basin. One of the main difficulties facing hydrologists in Colombia lies in the time spent gathering and analyzing information related to the selection of antecedent moisture conditions. In this study, complete records from 19 rainfall stations located in the Atlántico region, Colombia, were used to analyze the cumulative precipitation during the 5 days prior to the annual maximum daily precipitation associated with different return periods using the Gev, Gumbel, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson Type III probability distributions. Different interpolation methods (IDW, kriging and spline) were applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of the antecedent moisture conditions. The main contribution of this research is est...

Proceedings of the 18th LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education, and Technology: Engineering, Integration, And Alliances for A Sustainable Development” “Hemispheric Cooperation for Competitiveness and Prosperity on A Knowledge-Based Economy”, 2020

Production in large quantities of different varieties of products creates issues in finding an op... more Production in large quantities of different varieties of products creates issues in finding an optimal planning solution. Adhesive tapes companies face that challenge. A multi-phased methodology is proposed to minimize production costs. In this it is considered different production variables. First phase divided a problem into subproblems to minimize computational complexity through an incidence matrix. Second phase formulated a linear programming model to determine production optimal batch sizes. Consequently, model is applied in a real company. Results showed a decrease in production costs in a range of 14%-43% for the different manufactured groups of components. In this way it is expected that more companies can apply similar models to improve their production indicators.

Computer Information Systems and Industrial Management, 2020

Chemical industries usually involve continuous and large-scale production processes that require ... more Chemical industries usually involve continuous and large-scale production processes that require demanding inventory control systems. This paper aims to show the results of the implementation of a mixed-integer programming model (MIP) based on the Generic Materials and Operations Planning Problem (GMOP) for optimizing the inventory turnover in a fertilizer company. Results showed significant improvements for Inventory Turnover Ratios and overall costs when compared with an empirical production planning method.

Additional file. Input data. Article: Assessment of organizational policies in a retail store bas... more Additional file. Input data. Article: Assessment of organizational policies in a retail store based on a simulation model.

Table 6. Observed time for stopwatch time study.

Procedia Computer Science, 2022

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate several machine learning models under the CRISP-DM metho... more The purpose of this paper is to evaluate several machine learning models under the CRISP-DM methodology in order to determine, through its metrics, the best model for predicting the performance of high school students in the Colombian Caribbean region in the Saber 11º test, while proposing a new methodology for evaluating the results of the test by regions in order to take into account the socioeconomic particularities of each one of them. The CRISP-DM methodology is taken as a basis due to its maturity, this methodology allows the extraction of business and data knowledge, offers a guide for data preparation, modeling and validation of the models; it is expected that the proposed methodology will be implemented by the Colombian Institute for the Promotion of Higher Education (ICFES), departmental education secretariats and educational institutions. A variety of techniques and tools were used to develop ETL processes to obtain a data set with the most relevant attributes, in order to evaluate four machine learning models developed with the J48 (C4.5), LMT, PART and Multilayer Perceptron algorithms; obtaining that the best data set and the best learning model is obtained using the InfoGain attribute selection method and the LMT decision tree algorithm, respectively. Therefore, this project will facilitate the actors of the National Education System to make decisions for the benefit of students and the quality of education in the country, especially in the Caribbean region.

Inventive Computation Technologies, 2019

Boletín de Innovación, Logística y Operaciones, 2019

Objetivo: Generar escenarios de demandas simulando el ciclo de vida del producto, cuando este no ... more Objetivo: Generar escenarios de demandas simulando el ciclo de vida del producto, cuando este no tiene información histórica o registro de ventas. Métodos: Se utilizan los modelos de difusión de la Curva Logística, Gompertz y Bass, junto con simulación de Montecarlo. Resultados: Se obtienen diferentes escenarios de demanda dado el comportamiento de los parámetros según su distribución de probabilidad. Conclusiones: Se utilizan los modelos de difusión para la generación de escenarios de demanda, como aproximación del potencial de realización de la demanda. Implicaciones prácticas: Los escenarios obtenidos se tomarán como entradas a modelos de programación matemática para la planificación de cadenas de suministro rápidas para productos de innovación.