Nikola Schmidt | Charles University, Prague (original) (raw)

Articles by Nikola Schmidt

Acta Astronautica, 2018

Planetary defense is a delicate topic that has inherently sincere intentions – to save the Earth,... more Planetary defense is a delicate topic that has inherently sincere intentions – to save the Earth, biosphere or humankind from an asteroid capable of causing an extinction event. However, the call for action in an exceptional situation that uses scientific knowledge to rationalize exceptional political decisions is an obvious target for criticism by critical security studies scholars. The following article offers a policy framework to avoid the inevitable harsh criticism when any planetary defense policy is thoughtfully designed. The aim is to bring knowledge from political science and international relations theory to the planetary defense community to help build the future planetary defense political and technical architecture that will be desirable, feasible and will sustain. The article argues that it must be ethically desirable for involved actors, politically feasible in the current international system and sustainable in the long-term for the sake of humankind survival and prosperity. The theoretical approach reflects realistic dynamics between nation states but also proposes more visionary cosmopolitan future of humankind; it introduces ethical security studies to argue why, when and how planetary defense can be ethical but also derives from neoliberal thought to propose a policy of technological interdependence. The article combines critical reflections of current technical proposals, anticipate the criticism and proposes the least complicated way through the maze of international relations. The planetary defense has potential to unite people around the world in the Ulrich Beck's cosmopolitan vision, but it must take into consideration that rational solutions focused on effectivity enabled by engineered technology do not necessarily bring the desirable future.

New Space, 2017

Planetary defense (PD) falls into the field of security studies in international relations becaus... more Planetary defense (PD) falls into the field of security studies in international relations because its principal problem is a threat to our security. When any threat cannot be realistically placed on a reasonable scale showing its importance, then a securitization process known from the critical security studies in international relations is an approach to analyze it. Analysis of the securitization process is usually used to unveil real intentions behind legitimization of exceptional politics, but it can also be used to justify its credibility. In other words, the way how we talk, argue and discuss the threat constructs our perception of its severity, magnitude and relevance. PD has one significant advantage: it deals with easily scientifically confirmable threat that can help to justify the securitization move. Despite the hard science behind PD, additional interests of the involved actors may contribute to related policy decisions: national prestige, commercial boost multiplier, advancement of scientific research or simply the demand for a more responsible global governance. I introduce the reader into the realm of securitization theory and assess the special case of PD in the its light. Later, I argue why rather a cosmopolitan mindset than a cosmopolitan actor is the key how to reach PD readiness without global security concerns. This mindset can be enabled by global commercial actors as they can play a significant and a good role in our realm of nation states that usually share consensus over a need of good global governance. In the final part, this paper provides a brief policy architecture based on a cosmopolitan mindset including a roadmap for reaching it. The resulting commercial infrastructure with a PD capability can serve commerce, science and national prestige at once while representing a giant leap to space and an unprecedented advance to human collective behavior.

Politologická revue, 2017

The article analyses perspectives on global governance of planetary defence against asteroids und... more The article analyses perspectives on global governance of planetary defence against asteroids under the circumstances of its current conceivable technological solution, namely the relation between technological requirements for such a project and four ideal global governance models. Th e author first analyses the principles of orbital mechanics and technological solutions of asteroid deflection; he argues that we do not have much chance of dealing with the asteroid threat without the authority of democratic cosmopolitan character responsible for technological development and in-space asteroid deflection infrastructure operation. The topic is studied prevalently on the theoretical level; however, the analysis is also supported by current dynamics and dilemmas of international cooperation of national space agencies and other actors. The article concludes that the discussion of the fundamental threat of asteroid collision with Earth has the potential to stimulate the emergence of an internationally respected cosmopolitan authority focused on particular global threats – it may have a constitutive effect on the emergence of international organizations or other political entities or regimes. This can have an impact on the current international system of nation states in the so-called semi-cosmopolitan model as the authority has higher chances to emerge in territories not under control of states – in the outer space. We talk about an environment in which any solutions related to security threats are solvable only in the setting of perfect cooperation. The article argues that to avoid anarchy, the current development of commercial space infrastructure will need a solid regime with global overseeing authority without erratic national governments. Finally, the strategic interests of nation states to participate and avoid exclusion from the elite club will slowly push them to support the semi-cosmopolitan model as it is the only way how to avoid hegemonic government of one powerful nation state.

The following article perceives selected conflicts from the perspective of hybrid warfare and its... more The following article perceives selected conflicts from the perspective of hybrid warfare and its component of information operations and analyzes consequent impacts on international security. We are witnessing rising number of cyber incidents and related discussion over a cyber war under the light of doom scenarios without taking into consideration the term “net war” despite the fact it was discerned from “cyber war” in 1993. In net war information manipulation emanating from decentralized sources matters, however, we are still living in a situation where a strategy of influencing minds of public or elite are neither appropriately addressed by politicians, nor by national security strategies. Nevertheless, China and Russia are having information operations as a military component included in their doctrines and their highly effective consequences are evidently visible as late as today. The hybrid campaigns might be easily conducted by circumventing international law through attribution problem in cyberspace through current modern communication technologies. We would face a rising, silent, but highly effective hybrid warfare if any defensive measures such as “mental resilience” are not adopted. We would face it preferably without being aware of it. Finally, the result would undermine credibility, or legitimacy, of the Western democratic governments not only in the eyes of their own citizens.

The following article presents an alternative critical perspective of the cyber security research... more The following article presents an alternative critical perspective of the cyber security research agenda. The article opens with criticism of the securitization discourse that uses analogies of historical events with events in cyber space. The author argues that such an approach is inappropriate, and that events of such impact are very unlikely to take place. The events that have already shaped our way of thinking – such as the Estonian attacks – caused significant damage to the respective country; nevertheless, the very same attack today would not do the same harm, thanks to the different level of critical infrastructure in Estonia. Another example, Stuxnet, is also an event of high impact, but with alow probability of happening in the future. Due to the complexity of the supporting operation of the attack, it would not lead to a cyber world war. The future will bring more complex, less visible, completely covered and precise operations that will take advantage of all cyber space features, rather than a cybergeddon comparable to some historical event or a nuclear scenario. The author proposes three directions of desired research agenda in the cyber security field. Firstly, the development of normative framework aimed at a better understanding of cyber events; secondly, a thorough research of cyber space leading to appropriate space conceptualization; and thirdly, the reevaluation of cyber warfare concept in the light of the cyber space novelty.

Chapters by Nikola Schmidt

Planetary Defense is a complex problem, not well understood by policy makers and the general publ... more Planetary Defense is a complex problem, not well understood by policy makers and the general public. The recent Chelyabinsk incident in Russia created temporary international attention but has failed to effectively stimulate public action. The lack of long-term attention to cosmic hazards has resulted in limited funding to defend our planet. Hence, it is hard to realistically address this challenge and achieve the high test and operational readiness needed for an effective Planetary Defense strategy. To address this problem, we have created a set of recommendations for the development of a Planetary Defense Program, for the purpose of contributing to the protection of Earth from asteroids and comets. The SSP15 READI Project focused on threats for which there is only a short-term warning, specifically a warning of two years or less from detection of the object to impact. We have provided recommendations in five areas of Planetary Defense including detection and tracking, deflection techniques, global collaboration, outreach and education, and evacuation and recovery. We have applied this set of recommendations in a narrative scenario to make our report more impactful and engaging. We contrast optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for a comet threat, differing from each other in terms of the level of readiness achieved during the years leading up to the discovery of the threat. In our optimistic scenario, the deflection system has achieved high test and operational readiness. The world’s governments have realized the importance of being prepared against cosmic hazards and put in place all of the necessary measures for a successful defense, leading to a positive deflection of the comet. In contrast, in the pessimistic scenario no preparation is done before the detection, and the comet strikes a heavily populated area releasing energy equivalent to 80 times the most powerful nuclear bomb ever detonated. The recommendations that we have identified in this report constitute a roadmap to avoid this horrible outcome, and we believe they should be taken seriously and swiftly implemented.

The following chapter does not have an ambition to thoroughly explore all the cyber security-rela... more The following chapter does not have an ambition to thoroughly explore all the cyber security-related topics. However, I chose a way to open the hottest topics from the national security perspective. All the parts do not have any deep conclusions, but should serve the reader as a guide for further reading. In each part I provide you with some further references that are the most discussed and cited papers in the academic debate. However, as cyber security is an explosive topic today, we can assume that considerable amount of articles are accidentally omitted. The current securitization wave of cyber threats as one of the most serious national security issue contributes to the production of a huge amount of literature, making the finding of a wisely compiled literature not an easy task. This is the reason why the articles mentioned in the following chapter are chosen from those that are the most debated ones.

Various academics have tried to develop the best definition of cyberspace, but almost all lack th... more Various academics have tried to develop the best definition of cyberspace, but almost all lack the most important character of cyberspace – its fluidity. It means that rules, principles, usage habits, services provided and then the influence of physical world are continuously changing the shape of cyberspace during the time by our use of it. This article stands on several interlinked theoretical perspectives: a common approach in constructivism introduced by Berger and Luckmann, a structuration theory developed by Anthony Giddens in sociology and an addition from the second wave of constructivism represented by Bruno Latour who added fluid character to a social construction of reality. The application of these theories is made along with empirically observable characteristics especially of technology development and thus constantly changing the way of interaction between human beings and the technology. We have been shocked by particular changes in our lives during the last decade repeatedly and we have been convinced that this is an advancement of civilization whereas the cyberspace has been changing our perception of norms and rules that have been stable for centuries; norms that have provided stability, certainty and trust. These conditions developed social structures as a reflection and vice versa. The article proposes a perspective why the above drafted conceptualization of cyberspace as a fluid entity along with several variety of emerging dilemmas may never develop into a stable regime where states define rules of the game. However, states may be motivated in exercitation of their interests such as smooth intelligence gathering gaining them strategic advantage and they do that apparently. The article concludes with a variety of implications to cyberspace security based on the conceptualization of cyberspace in the light of constructivist and structurationist theory. The proposed implications for international security are to be used as a reflection tool for possible cyberspace regime theorization where concepts such as stability, certainty and trust have be understood differently.

Conferences by Nikola Schmidt

This paper is meant to provide a comprehensible insight into the desirability, feasibility and su... more This paper is meant to provide a comprehensible insight into the desirability, feasibility and sustainability of the planetary defense endeavor in its current form through the lens of critical security studies in political science in general and international relations in particular. Our objective is to discuss possible implications and desirable policy architecture of planetary defense within the framework of current theoretical research. Critical security studies are a useful approach to studying planetary defense as involved scientists and engineers tend to understand their efforts as normatively good because the outcome of these efforts is about our very survival. However, their and our, efforts have the potential to cause undesirable political effects on the international level when they can do good instead. A credible and reliable Planetary Defense strategy should propose solutions to a global threat similar to those being evolved to combat pandemics or climate change. In the unavoidable event of an asteroid impact, the strategy should also propose quick and effective recovery based on the best practices employed by natural disaster relief organizations around the world. If efforts are not coordinated at the global level, hasty and unprepared response can have potential to cause undesirable political effects on the international stage. A carefully constructed response strategy might even do good instead. The policy architecture discussing the involvement of various actors along with the selection of technologies will have implications on the international affairs; the purpose of this article is to show what might be the imaginable implications and how to steer them towards the general good. Planetary defense is a delicate topic; it is generally defensive and refers to the fate of humanity and the whole biosphere in enlightened cosmopolitan fashion but also seeks technology that could have latent aggressive, offensive potential despite the general tendency to talk about a deflection method what in fact can be an ultimate weapon of war.
The most intriguing concern is the use of nuclear weapons against asteroids which will not be in the interest of all nation states. We need to reflect the fact that we do not live in a cosmopolitan society but still in an international system consisting of sovereign nation states. Planetary defenders tend to forget this fact that defines how power is distributed worldwide – power that has the potential to poison any globalist efforts by denouncing discourse to preserve the principle of national sovereignty, the principle under which holding power in the hands of individuals is more easily achievable than being globally respected as an inspirational mind worthy of being followed. However, the agenda of planetary defense presents more importantly the path-defining potential to establish a cosmopolitan approach to various additional fundamental questions of humankind’s survival and, moreover, to humankind’s flourishing in general. Therefore, it has the chance to become a path-dependent policy agenda for other global questions influencing our well-being and the development of humanity as a whole.
Planetary defense is a very cosmopolitan agenda due to its global character. Nevertheless, we still live in an international system of nation states that requires a careful approach and strong argument. This conviction is the initial point of the following analysis. The vision of a cosmopolitan society is the very end of our efforts as well as a necessity for sustainable planetary defense.

Various interests lay behind the call for planetary defense (PD) against asteroids and comets. PD... more Various interests lay behind the call for planetary defense (PD) against asteroids and comets. PD certainly falls into the field of security studies, because its principal problem is the ability to assess the threat; however, PD lacks convincing statistics that can be used by politicians whether they should or should not address it. When any threat cannot be realistically placed on a reasonable timescale, then the securitization process can be used to justify its credibility. At this point, interests of the involved actors might be various: national prestige, commercial boost multiplier, advancement of scientific research or simply the demand for a more responsible global governance. In the first half, this paper assesses perspectives of these four stakeholders arguing that the fourth one is the least plausible, but the most desirable. First, yearn for the national prestige can be visible when a particular nation develops its own PD office to organize other relevant governments in this global endeavor, which can be called the strategy of the shining city on the hill that others want to emulate. Second, when it comes to particular technology usage, specific business might rise up to provide its services, knowledge and products without any regard to rationale or effect on global cooperation. Third, the vision of future ability to deflect big asteroids or comets certainly drives scientific research and technology development, but without a working policy it is much more isolated in laboratories rather than tested in space and with limited prospects on PD sustainability. Fourth, a handover of decision making powers to a cosmopolitan authority concerning PD is certainly the most desirable goal; it gives the new decision making body enough power to act in the preparation and development phases while the trigger can stay in hands of a wider world authority. In the second half, this paper provides perspectives on possible policy architecture of such a cosmopolitan body including a roadmap for reaching it. It focuses on a normative perspective through a proposition of a new uniting norm of Responsibility to Defend Earth based on the experience with Responsibility to Protect. I argue that the cosmopolitan policy for PD can unite commercial and scientific goals in a sustainable manner. The resulting Moon base on the far side with a PD capability can serve commerce, science and national prestige at once while representing a giant leap to space and an unprecedented advance to human collective behavior.

Planetary Defense (PD) entails the technical means for mitigating asteroid impact threat and buil... more Planetary Defense (PD) entails the technical means for mitigating asteroid impact threat and building a viable political framework to arrive at a reliable state of readiness to defend Earth from extraterrestrial impactors. This is an advocacy paper combining pragmatic arguments based on current, effective and reliable technologies. Short and long-term scenarios to create the essential global defense structures are discussed. Based on such a premise, an acceptable policy solution for all states might be possible. In the first step, we propose to identify existing systems within the nuclear-military-industrial complex as well as those in the civilian domain that might be deployed immediately to set up and conduct a series of exercises showcasing the limits of our current capabilities for PD. Next, we propose and visualize a near-term goal in setting up a globally responsive PD network (fire-station analogue) based on an intergovernmental model under the current political institutional umbrella of the United Nations International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). Each nation with a PD office would take cooperative action under UN coordination. In this model, a network of PD sites are deployed around the world; based on Earth in the respective territories of participating states. Such a model contributes to Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBM) through cooperation on technology development, data sharing, specialists exchange and mitigation infrastructure. In the following step, we propose and visualize to evolve a multipurpose facility on the far side of the Moon, which benefits from the intergovernmental experience and the well rooted confidence from TCBM foundations laid earlier. The base could be used for a variety of applications across scientific, commercial, transportation and defense sectors. Such an installation would thrive only when built and operated by an authority respected globally by all states without exception. A gargantuan task, which is achievable if enough confidence is achieved among nations. We also base the political architecture on recent historical experience in international relations and cooperation. In particular, it is based on the will of sovereign states to cooperate on environmental issues, collaborate on complex projects like the international space station, CERN, ITER and to further develop the Responsibility to Protect paradigm toward achieving perpetual peace and to enhance the long term survivability of our species and the biosphere. PD offers a clear argument why the future outer space regime has to be based on a renewed determination for global cooperation.

Planetary defense is a complex problem, not well understood by policy makers and the general publ... more Planetary defense is a complex problem, not well understood by policy makers and the general public. The recent Chelyabinsk incident in Russia created temporary international attention but has failed to effectively stimulate public action. The lack of long-term attention to cosmic hazards has resulted in limited funding to defend our planet. Hence, it is hard to realistically address this challenge and achieve the high test and operational readiness needed for an effective Planetary Defense strategy. To address this problem, we have created a set of recommendations for the development of a Planetary Defense Program. The SSP15 Roadmap for Earth Defense Initiatives (READI) Project focused on threats for which there is only a short warning period, specifically, two years or less from detection of the object to impact. We have provided recommendations in five areas of Planetary Defense including detection and tracking, deflection techniques, global collaboration, outreach and education, and evacuation and recovery. This paper addresses some critical facets of the problem that we think need immediate attention so we might better prepare to shield Earth from asteroid and cometary impacts. We suggest exploring the use of certain advanced space technologies for threat mitigation, propose new models for global cooperation and present innovative approaches to public education and outreach.

The concept of non-state actors and their ability and power to push through their interests has b... more The concept of non-state actors and their ability and power to push through their interests has been studied especially since 9/11. In the meantime, we have been witnessing a growing dependence of our society on cyberspace including all cyber-related threats. This trend is visible in any newly adopted strategy of national security. However, most of the strategies are defence- oriented and tend to focus on empowering core and wide capabilities of a nation state to secure national cyberspace. This paper asserts that cyberspace is a domain in which offense dominates the defence and where critical knowledge is more important for success than powerful forces. Additionally, given the fluid nature of cyberspace, threats are fluid as well; espionage has never been more effective and centralisation has become a dominant design of critical infrastructures. That said, the paper will fundamentally argue that all these characteristics raise the potential of so- called super-empowered non-state actors. This diffusion of state power is shadowed by a curtain of argumentation that strong defences would avert state-sponsored attacks. This contribution attempts to emphasize that the strategic threat lies predominantly in these super-empowered individuals, and conceptualizes the dynamics of their emergence and activity.

Policy Papers by Nikola Schmidt

It is my pleasure to introduce the first piece in a the Deutsch Security Square new series of occ... more It is my pleasure to introduce the first piece in a the Deutsch Security Square new series of occassional exchanges
on topical security issues of the day. In this pioneering conversation, Nikola Schmidt and Bohumil Dobos, both with
the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University discuss the future of European astropolitics. The exchange was
stimulated by Dobos’ article ‘Geopolitics of the Moon: A European Perspective’ published by Astropolitics 13(2015):1.
Schmidt challenges Dobos’ case for desirability of ‘colonising’ the Moon to prevent access denial of space exploration
by potentially hostile actors by pointing to several political, legal and technical issues that problematise this position,
leading to dialectical development of Dobos’ argument and situating it in a broader context of EU’s strategy.
Ondrej Ditrych, D.SQ Coordinator

News articles / CZ by Nikola Schmidt

Posters by Nikola Schmidt

While it is well established that the first and critical pillar of an economically viable and rel... more While it is well established that the first and critical pillar of an economically viable and reliable Planetary Defense architecture is timely detection, it is also clear that until such time observatories and networks with enough capability and redundancies are fully functional, the threat of a small, low albedo short warning period “city killer” type impactor appearing along a terminal trajectory is still possible. This is also a reason the IAA/PDC group continues to build awareness and refine impactor exercises. In the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA) is also fully aware that certain aspects of Planetary Defense may be still inadequate and that we need to be prepared for recovery options in the aftermath of such a natural disaster brought on by an extraterrestrial impactor.

A High Energy Laser(HEL) Directed Energy(DE) system A High Energy Laser(HEL) Directed Energy(DE) ... more A High Energy Laser(HEL) Directed Energy(DE) system A High Energy Laser(HEL) Directed Energy(DE) system Complex for Planetary Defense on the far-side of the Complex for Planetary Defense on the far-side of the Moon for mitigating an emergency short warning Moon for mitigating an emergency short warning threat posed by potential " city killer " asteroids (<0.1 km threat posed by potential " city killer " asteroids (<0.1 km across) and cometary fragments that we now know across) and cometary fragments that we now know happen more often than previous estimations. happen more often than previous estimations.

Acta Astronautica, 2018

New Space, 2017

Politologická revue, 2017

In April 2015 (2) the fourth annual IAA Conference on Planetary Defense occurred at ESRIN, Frasca... more In April 2015 (2) the fourth annual IAA Conference on Planetary Defense occurred at ESRIN, Frascati, Italy. In addition to a global review of progress it included a scenario exercise where participants acted out a partly-successful deflection and recovery event. At IAC 2015 in Jerusalem (3,4,5) three papers dealt with aspects of PD. The NEOWise spacecraft is making infrared detections from orbit, complementing professional and amateur ground observations. Detection and evaluation records are archived at the Minor Planet Canter in Cambridge, USA and ESA’s NEO Coordination Center at ESRIN. IAWN and SMPAG (6) are functioning.
Detection rates, including smaller objects and objects coming from Earth’s dayside, should be increased. Immediate needs include augmented ground-based observations both optical and radar, especially from the southern hemisphere. Additional space infrared observatories such as NEOcam (7) and Sentinel (8) should be launched.
Beyond these measures, work should begin toward building and maintaining intercept and deflection systems. The 2005 Deep Impact mission to Comet Tempel-1 showed that all needed technology is in place. Now, it would be good to mount an early demonstration of deflection, not necessarily to a threatening object. An IAC paper (4) suggested that surplus ICBMs might be used to launch such tests.
Today, nations reluctant to share military information are unlikely to engage in full collaboration. At first, intercept efforts may be pursued independently, but policy discussions of a more coordinated approach should begin. A model for partial international collaboration in military action is the existing arrangement for building and dispatching UN peacekeeping teams. Also on the policy front, inclusion of space nuclear systems should be raised as a future prospect.

The course aims to the very basic technical basis of the cyber space, but also to a thorough anal... more The course aims to the very basic technical basis of the cyber space, but also to a thorough analysis of the consequent influence of the whole new cyber realm on international security. The course will help students understand the dynamics of the actual international regime development which is based on a highly fluid, technical intangible, but very unpredictable new possible domain of future warfare. Students will be able to address threats in cyber space, evaluate them on the basis of international law, understand the dynamics of cyber warfare and other cyber related threats and will be able to draw ideas on the future possible development. Students will be aware about the technical conundrum of cyber security and will be able to actively draw national policy in the cyber security and cyber defense.

The central objective of this course is to introduce the rapidly growing importance of the field ... more The central objective of this course is to introduce the rapidly growing importance of the field of space security. Among the questions raised early on will be how the security and defense policies of leading world powers influence outer space activities. The course will also probe why it is increasingly challenging to ensure the integrity, availability and reliability of space assets and access to them. The dual-use nature of space technologies (i.e. the same technology can be used for civilian and security/military applications), the explosion of private sector space operators (e.g. in the area of launchers and nanosatellites), Western defense requirements and the counterspace measures of global bad actors need to be better understood if civilian space activities are to prosper in the long term. It is also to address how Western supremacy in outer space activities involving security and defense is to be maintained (e.g. the use of satellite communications, Earth observation/meteorology, navigation, weather forecasting, environmental and climate change monitoring, disaster management, missile defense, early warning, space situational awareness, etc.). Space assets are vulnerable and exposed to a multitude of hazards and threats. Such hazards have natural or man-made origin and include space weather, orbital debris, various technical issues (e.g. satellite malfunctions, unintentional interference, and inaccurate orbital prediction), as well as topics such as planetary defense from asteroids and comets, or space resource management. Space debris is the main contributor to what is now often referred to as "congested space". There are also threats posed by the purposeful interference with, or even destruction of, satellites and spacecraft by different types of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons deployed by some space-faring states. These kinds of natural and man-made perils are the basis for space security policies, together with the dynamic interplay between terrestrial and space security. This topic should make for lively student classroom discussions. Students will be provided with an overview of the space security portfolio. They will learn about the technologies enabling access to, and operations in, space, how to differentiate between natural and man-made threats from a policy perspective, and the profound geopolitical consequences of any deliberate degradation, disruption, or destruction of space systems and assets. Students will understand the rather complex link between civilian and military space programs, the current international legal framework that governs space activities, and gain a sense of the short-and medium-term