Ramesh Chokkanhalli | Central Water and Power Research Station, Pun, India (original) (raw)

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Papers by Ramesh Chokkanhalli

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado Rive... more The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950-1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected 'business-as-usual' (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into

Journal of The American Water Resources Association, Jan 1, 1999

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climat... more ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.

Water Resources Research, Jan 1, 1994

A distributed hydrology-vegetation model is described that includes canopy interception, evaporat... more A distributed hydrology-vegetation model is described that includes canopy interception, evaporation, transpiration, and snow accumulation and melt, as well as runoff generation via the saturation excess mechanisms. Digital elevation data are used to model topographic controls on incoming solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, and downslope water movement. Canopy evapotranspiration is represented via a two-layer Penman-Monteith formulation that incorporates local net solar radiation, surface meteorology, soil characteristics and moisture status, and species-dependent leaf area index and stomatal resistance. Snow accumulation and ablation are modeled using an energy balance approach that includes the effects of local topography and vegetation cover. Saturated subsurface flow is modeled using a quasi three-dimensional routing scheme. The model was applied at a 180-m scale to the Middle Fork Flathead River basin in northwestern Montana. This 2900-km2, snowmelt-dominated watershed ranges in elevation from 900 to over 3000 m. The model was calibrated using 2 years of recorded precipitation and streamflow. The model was verified against 2 additional years of runoff and against advanced very high resolution radiometer based spatial snow cover data at the 1-km2 scale. Simulated discharge showed acceptable agreement with observations. The simulated areal patterns of snow cover were in general agreement with the remote sensing observations, but were lagged slightly in time.

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado Rive... more The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950-1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected 'business-as-usual' (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a control climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamflow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into

Journal of The American Water Resources Association, Jan 1, 1999

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climat... more ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.

Water Resources Research, Jan 1, 1994

A distributed hydrology-vegetation model is described that includes canopy interception, evaporat... more A distributed hydrology-vegetation model is described that includes canopy interception, evaporation, transpiration, and snow accumulation and melt, as well as runoff generation via the saturation excess mechanisms. Digital elevation data are used to model topographic controls on incoming solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, and downslope water movement. Canopy evapotranspiration is represented via a two-layer Penman-Monteith formulation that incorporates local net solar radiation, surface meteorology, soil characteristics and moisture status, and species-dependent leaf area index and stomatal resistance. Snow accumulation and ablation are modeled using an energy balance approach that includes the effects of local topography and vegetation cover. Saturated subsurface flow is modeled using a quasi three-dimensional routing scheme. The model was applied at a 180-m scale to the Middle Fork Flathead River basin in northwestern Montana. This 2900-km2, snowmelt-dominated watershed ranges in elevation from 900 to over 3000 m. The model was calibrated using 2 years of recorded precipitation and streamflow. The model was verified against 2 additional years of runoff and against advanced very high resolution radiometer based spatial snow cover data at the 1-km2 scale. Simulated discharge showed acceptable agreement with observations. The simulated areal patterns of snow cover were in general agreement with the remote sensing observations, but were lagged slightly in time.