Extramural Cross–Validation of the Mayo Primary Biliary... : Hepatology (original) (raw)

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Extramural Cross–Validation of the Mayo Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Survival Model Establishes Its Generalizability

Grambsch, Patricia M. Ph.D.*,1; Dickson, Rolland E.1; Kaplan, Marshall1,2; Lesage, Gene1,3; Fleming, Thomas R.1,4; Langworthy, Alice L.1

1_Division of Gastroenterology and Internal Medicine and Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, Minnesota 55905_

2_Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, New England Medical Center Hospitals, Boston, Massachusetts 02111_

3_Department of Gastroenterology, Scott and White Clinic, Temple, Texas 76508_

4_Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195_

* Mayo Clinic, 200 First St. SW, Rochester, Minnesota 55905.

Received: 17 November 1988; Accepted: 17 May 1989

Abstract

The generalizability of the Mayo model for predicting survival in individual primary biliary cirrhosis patients without liver transplantation was tested and confirmed. The model was applied to a data base of patients from the New England Medical Center Hospitals (n = 141) and the Scott and White Clinic (n = 35) and found to predict their survival accurately. It was also shown to be accurate for Mayo primary biliary cirrhosis patients with very advanced disease (n = 30), those with less than a 33% chance of surviving 12 months. The analyses confirmed that the addition of histologic stage did not significantly improve the predictive power of the model (p > 0.10). We suggest that the Mayo model is a practical tool for clinical management and decision making.