Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years (original) (raw)
References
Ammann CM, Genton MG, Li B (2010) Technical note: correcting for signal attenuation from noisy proxy data in climate reconstructions. Clim Past 6(2):273–279. doi:10.5194/cp-6-273-2010 Article Google Scholar
Anchukaitis KJ, Breitenmoser P, Briffa KR, Buchwal A, Büntgen U, Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Esper J, Evans MN, Frank D, Grudd H, Gunnarson BE, Hughes MK, Kirdyanov AV, Körner C, Krusic PJ, Luckman B, Melvin TM, Salzer MW, Shashkin AV, Timmreck C, Vaganov EA, Wilson RJS (2012) Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nat Geosci 5(12):836–837. doi:10.1038/ngeo1645 Article Google Scholar
Bergthórsson P (1969) An estimate of drift ice and temperature in Iceland in 1,000 years. Jökull 19:94–101 Google Scholar
Berner KS, Koç N, Godtliebsen F, Divine D (2011) Holocene climate variability of the Norwegian Atlantic current during high and low solar insolation forcing. Paleoceanography 26. doi:10.1029/2010PA002002
Bingham NH, Fry JM (2010) Regression: linear models in statistics. Springer, London Google Scholar
Bonnans JF (2006) Numerical optimization theoretical and practical aspects. Springer, Berlin Google Scholar
Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Cole J, Hughes MK, Osborn TJ (2003) The climate of the last millennium. In: Alverson K, Bradley RS, Pedersen TF (eds) Paleoclimate, global change, and the future. Springer, Berlin, pp 105–141
Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res 111(D12). doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
Calvo E, Grimalt J, Jansen E (2002) High resolution U37K sea surface temperature reconstruction in the Norwegian sea during the Holocene. Quat Sci Rev 21(12–13):1385–1394. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00096-8 Article Google Scholar
Christiansen B, Ljungqvist FC (2011) Reconstruction of the extratropical NH mean temperature over the last millennium with a method that preserves low-frequency variability. J Clim 24(23):6013–6034. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4145.1 Google Scholar
Chylek P, Folland CK, Lesins G, Dubey MK, Wang M (2009) Arctic air temperature change amplification and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 36:5. doi:200910.1029/2009GL038777 Article Google Scholar
Cook ER, Briffa KR, Meko DM, Graybill DA, Funkhouser G (1995) The ‘segment length curse’ in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene 5(2):229–237. doi:10.1177/095968369500500211 Article Google Scholar
Diaz HF, Trigo R, Hughes MK, Mann ME, Xoplaki E, Barriopedro D (2011) Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate in medieval times revisited. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(11):1487–1500. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-10-05003.1 Article Google Scholar
Divine D, Isaksson E, Martma T, Meijer HA, Moore J, Pohjola V, van de Wal RS, Godtliebsen F (2011) Thousand years of winter surface air temperature variations in Svalbard and northern Norway reconstructed from ice-core data. Polar Res 30. doi:10.3402/polar.v30i0.7379
Evans MN, Reichert BK, Kaplan A, Anchukaitis KJ, Vaganov EA, Hughes MK, Cane MA (2006) A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data. J Geophys Res 111(G3):G03,008. doi:10.1029/2006JG000166 Article Google Scholar
Frank DC, Esper J, Raible CC, Büntgen U, Trouet V, Stocker B, Joos F (2010) Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate. Nature 463(7280):527–530. doi:10.1038/nature08769 Article Google Scholar
Goosse H, Crespin E, Dubinkina S, Loutre MF, Mann M, Renssen H, Sallaz-Damaz Y, Shindell D (2012) The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the “Medieval climate anomaly”. Clim Dyn:1–20. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1297-0
Graham N, Ammann C, Fleitmann D, Cobb K, Luterbacher J (2011) Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval climate anomaly”. Clim Dyn 37(5):1217–1245. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0914-z Article Google Scholar
Grootes PM, Stuiver M (1997) Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 10^3- to 10^5-year time resolution. J Geophys Res 102(C12):26455–26470. doi:199710.1029/97JC00880 Google Scholar
Grudd H (2008) Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers. Clim Dyn 31:843–857. doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0358-2 Article Google Scholar
Gunnarson BE, Linderholm HW, Moberg A (2010) Improving a tree-ring reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia: 900 years of warm-season temperatures. Clim Dyn 36:97–108. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0783-5 Article Google Scholar
Haltia-Hovi E, Saarinen T, Kukkonen M (2007) A 2000-year record of solar forcing on varved lake sediment in eastern Finland. Quat Sci Rev 26(5–6):678–689. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.11.005 Article Google Scholar
Helama S, Fauria MM, Mielikäinen K, Timonen M, Eronen M (2010) Sub-milankovitch solar forcing of past climates: mid and late Holocene perspectives. Geol Soc Am Bull 122(11–12):1981–1988. doi:10.1130/B30088.1 Article Google Scholar
Isaksson E, Divine D, Kohler J, Martma T, Pohjola V, Motoyama H, Watanabe O (2005) Climate oscillations as recorded in Svalbard ice core omega18O records between AD 1200 and 1997. Geografiska Annaler Ser A 87:203–214. doi:10.1111/j.0435-3676.2005.00253.x Article Google Scholar
Jiang H, Eiriksson J, Schulz M, Knudsen KL, Seidenkrantz MS (2005) Evidence for solar forcing of sea-surface temperature on the north Icelandic shelf during the late Holocene. Geology 33(1):73–76. doi:10.1130/G21130.1 Article Google Scholar
Kaspi Y, Sayag R, Tziperman E (2004) A “triple sea-ice state” mechanism for the abrupt warming and synchronous ice sheet collapses during Heinrich events. Paleoceanography 19:12. doi:200410.1029/2004PA001009 Article Google Scholar
Kaufman DS, Schneider DP, McKay NP, Ammann CM, Bradley RS, Briffa KR, Miller GH, Otto-Bliesner BL, Overpeck JT, Vinther BM, Abbott M, Axford Y, Bird B, Birks HJB, Bjune AE, Briner J, Cook T, Chipman M, Francus P, Gajewski K, Geirsdottir A, Hu FS, Kutchko B, Lamoureux S, Loso M, MacDonald G, Peros M, Porinchu D, Schiff C, Seppa H, Thomas E (2009) Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling. Science 325(5945):1236–1239. doi:10.1126/science.1173983 Article Google Scholar
Kirchhefer AJ (2001) Reconstruction of summer temperatures from tree-rings of scots pine (pinus sylvestris l.) in coastal northern Norway. Holocene 11(1):41–52. doi:10.1191/095968301670181592 Article Google Scholar
Korhola A, Weckström J, Holmström L, Erästö P (2000) A quantitative Holocene climatic record from diatoms in northern Fennoscandia. Quat Res 54(2):284–294. doi:10.1006/qres.2000.2153 Article Google Scholar
Kotlyakov V, Arkhipov S, Henderson K, Nagornov O (2004) Deep drilling of glaciers in Eurasian Arctic as a source of paleoclimatic records. Quat Sci Rev 23(11–13):1371–1390. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.12.013 Article Google Scholar
Lamb HH (1995) Climate, history and the modern world. Routledge, London Google Scholar
Li C, Battisti DS, Schrag DP, Tziperman E (2005) Abrupt climate shifts in Greenland due to displacements of the sea ice edge. Geophys Res Lett 32:4. doi:200510.1029/2005GL023492 Google Scholar
Linge H, Lauritzen SE, Andersson C, Hansen JK, Skoglund RO, Sundqvist HS (2009) Stable isotope records for the last 10,000 years from Okshola cave (Fauske, northern Norway) and regional comparisons. Clim Past 5:667–682. doi:10.5194/cp-5-667-2009 Article Google Scholar
Ljungqvist FC (2010) A new reconstruction of the temperature variability in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millenia. Geografiska Ann Ser A Phys Geogr 92(3):339–351. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x Article Google Scholar
Luoto TP, Sarmaja-Korjonen K, Nevalainen L, Kauppila T (2009) A 700 year record of temperature and nutrient changes in a small eutrophied lake in southern Finland. Holocene 19(7):1063–1072. doi:10.1177/0959683609341002 Article Google Scholar
Maidment D (1993) Handbook of hydrology, 1st edn. McGraw-Hill Professional, New York Google Scholar
Mann ME, Rutherford S, Wahl E, Ammann C (2007) Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods. J Geophys Res 112(D12). doi:10.1029/2006JD008272
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller SK, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105(36):13252–13257. doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105 Article Google Scholar
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Rutherford S, Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Shindell D, Ammann C, Faluvegi G, Ni F (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly. Science 326(5957):1256–1260. doi:10.1126/science.1177303 Article Google Scholar
Mann ME, Fuentes JD, Rutherford S (2012a) Reply to ‘Tree rings and volcanic cooling’. Nature Geosci 5(12):837–838. doi:10.1038/ngeo1646 Article Google Scholar
Mann ME, Fuentes JD, Rutherford S (2012b) Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures. Nat Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo1394
Marquardt DW (1963) An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. SIAM J Appl Math 11(2):431. doi:10.1137/0111030 Article Google Scholar
Marshall J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P, Czaja A, Dickson R, Hurrell J, McCartney M, Saravanan R, Visbeck M (2001) North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int J Climatol 21(15):1863–1898. doi:10.1002/joc.693 Article Google Scholar
McDermott F, Mattey DP, Hawkesworth C (2001) Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem δ18O record from SW Ireland. Science 294(5545):1328–1331. doi:10.1126/science.1063678 Article Google Scholar
McKay NP, Kaufman DS, Michelutti N (2008) Biogenic silica concentration as a high-resolution, quantitative temperature proxy at Hallet lake, south-central Alaska. Geophys Res Lett 35:6. doi:200810.1029/2007GL032876 Article Google Scholar
Miller G, Brigham-Grette J, Alley R, Anderson L, Bauch H, Douglas M, Edwards M, Elias S, Finney B, Fitzpatrick J, Funder S, Herbert T, Hinzman L, Kaufman D, MacDonald G, Polyak L, Robock A, Serreze M, Smol J, Spielhagen R, White J, Wolfe A, Wolff E (2010) Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic. Quat Sci Rev 29(15–16):1679–1715. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.001 Article Google Scholar
Moberg A, Sonechkin DM, Holmgren K, Datsenko NM, Karlen W (2005) Highly variable northern hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433(7026):613–617. doi:10.1038/nature03265 Article Google Scholar
O’Brien SR, Mayewski PA, Meeker LD, Meese DA, Twickler MS, Whitlow SI (1995) Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core. Science 270(5244):1962–1964. doi:10.1126/science.270.5244.1962 Article Google Scholar
Ojala AE, Alenius T (2005) 10000 years of interannual sedimentation recorded in the lake Nautajärvi (finland) clastic-organic varves. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 219:285–302. doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.01.002 Article Google Scholar
Overpeck J, Hughen K, Hardy D, Bradley R, Case R, Douglas M, Finney B, Gajewski K, Jacoby G, Jennings A, Lamoureux S, Lasca A, MacDonald G, Moore J, Retelle M, Smith S, Wolfe A, Zielinski G (1997) Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries. Science 278(5341):1251–1256. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1251 Article Google Scholar
Patterson WP, Dietrich KA, Holmden C, Andrews JT (2010) Two millennia of north Atlantic seasonality and implications for Norse colonies. Proc Nat Acad Sci 107(12):5306–5310. doi:10.1073/pnas.0902522107 Article Google Scholar
Pflaumann U, Duprat J, Pujol C, Labeyrie LD (1996) SIMMAX: a modern analog technique to deduce atlantic sea surface temperatures from planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments. Paleoceanography 11(1):15. doi:10.1029/95PA01743 Article Google Scholar
Schneider T (2001) Analysis of incomplete climate data: estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values. J Clim 14:853–871 Article Google Scholar
Schwager M (1999) Ice core analysis on the spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation during the late Holocene in north Greenland. PhD thesis, Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Sicre MA, Hall IR, Mignot J, Khodri M, Ezat U, Truong MX, Eiríksson J, Knudsen KL (2011) Sea surface temperature variability in the subpolar Atlantic over the last two millennia. Paleoceanography. doi:10.1029/2011PA002169
Spielhagen RF, Werner K, Sørensen SA, Zamelczyk K, Kandiano E, Budeus G, Husum K, Marchitto TM, Hald M (2011) Enhanced modern heat transfer to the Arctic by warm Atlantic water. Science 331(6016):450–453. doi:10.1126/science.1197397 Article Google Scholar
Sundqvist HS, Zhang Q, Moberg A, Holmgren K, Körnich H, Nilsson J, Brattström G (2010) Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes—part 1: survey of temperature and precipitation proxy data. Clim Past 6(5):591–608. doi:10.5194/cp-6-591-2010 Article Google Scholar
Tiljander M, Saarnisto M, Ojala AEK, Saarinen T (2003) A 3000-year palaeoenvironmental record from annually laminated sediment of lake Korttajärvi, Central Finland. Boreas 32(4):566–577. doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01236.x Article Google Scholar
Timmermann A, An SI, Krebs U, Goosse H (2005) ENSO suppression due to weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 18(16):3122–3139. doi:10.1175/JCLI3495.1 Article Google Scholar
Tingley MP (2012) A Bayesian ANOVA scheme for calculating climate anomalies, with applications to the instrumental temperature record. J Clim 25:777–791. Code is available at ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/softlib/anova
Tingley MP, Huybers P (2010a) A Bayesian algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part I: development and applications to paleoclimate reconstruction problems. J Clim 23(10):2759–2781. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3015.1 Article Google Scholar
Tingley MP, Huybers P (2010b) A Bayesian algorithm for reconstructing climate anomalies in space and time. Part II: comparison with the regularized expectation–maximization algorithm. J Clim 23(10):2782–2800. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3016.1 Article Google Scholar
Tingley MP, Craigmile PF, Haran M, Li B, Mannshardt E, Rajaratnam B (2012) Piecing together the past: statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions. Quat Sci Rev 35:1–22. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.01.012 Article Google Scholar
Tolwinski-Ward SE, Evans MN, Hughes MK, Anchukaitis KJ (2011) An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width. Clim Dyn 36(11–12):2419–2439. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5 Article Google Scholar
Vinther B, Jones P, Briffa K, Clausen H, Andersen K, Dahl-Jensen D, Johnsen S (2010) Climatic signals in multiple highly resolved stable isotope records from Greenland. Quat Sci Rev 29(3–4):522–538. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.002 Article Google Scholar
Vinther BM, Clausen HB, Johnsen SJ, Rasmussen SO, Andersen KK, Buchardt SL, Dahl-Jensen D, Seierstad IK, Siggaard-Andersen ML, Steffensen JP, Svensson A, Olsen J, Heinemeier J (2006) A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene. J Geophys Res 111:11. doi:200610.1029/2005JD006921 Google Scholar
Vinther BM, Clausen HB, Fisher DA, Koerner RM, Johnsen SJ, Andersen KK, Dahl-Jensen D, Rasmussen SO, Steffensen JP, Svensson AM (2008) Synchronizing ice cores from the Renland and Agassiz ice caps to the Greenland ice core chronology. J Geophys Res 113. doi:10.1029/2007JD009143
Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards RL, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly MJ, Dykoski CA, Li X (2005) The Holocene asian monsoon: links to solar changes and north atlantic climate. Science 308(5723):854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296 Article Google Scholar
Wanner H, Beer J, Bütikofer J, Crowley TJ, Cubasch U, Flückiger J, Goosse H, Grosjean M, Joos F, Kaplan JO, Küttel M, Müller SA, Prentice IC, Solomina O, Stocker TF, Tarasov P, Wagner M, Widmann M (2008) Mid- to late holocene climate change: an overview. Quat Sci Rev 27(19–20):1791–1828. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.06.013 Article Google Scholar
Welch P (1967) The use of fast Fourier transform for the estimation of power spectra: a method based on time averaging over short, modified periodograms. IEEE Trans Audio Electroacoust 15(2):70–73. doi:10.1109/TAU.1967.1161901 Article Google Scholar
Wood KR, Overland JE (2010) Early 20th century arctic warming in retrospect. Int J Climatol 30(9):1269–1279. doi:10.1002/joc.1973 Google Scholar