Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932–2010 (original) (raw)

Abstract

In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932–2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932–2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

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Acknowledgements

This work was carried out within the tripartite cooperation (Africa-Latin America-Europe) on climate changes and their impacts on natural resources. The first author is grateful to IRD for the mobility and training in LOCEAN. We thank the ABHSMD for providing the data. This study benefited also from the support of the ERANETMED (WASA) project.

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Authors and Affiliations

1. Laboratoire de Géologie Appliquée et de Géo-Environnement, Faculté des Sciences d’Agadir, Université Ibn Zohr, Agadir, Morocco
   H. Abahous & L. Bouchaou
2. Université Paris 7-Denis Diderot, UMR LOCEAN, Paris, France
   J. Ronchail
3. Centre IRD France Nord, IRD-Sorbonne Université (IRD, UPMC, CNRS, MNHN) UMR LOCEAN, 32, Avenue Henri Varagant, 93143, Bondy-Cedex, France
   A. Sifeddine
4. LMI PALEOTRACES (IRD, UPMC, CNRS, MNHN), Departamento de Geoquimica, UFF, Niteroi, Brazil
   A. Sifeddine
5. IAV Hassan II, Ait Melloul, Morocco
   L. Kenny

Authors

1. H. Abahous
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2. J. Ronchail
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3. A. Sifeddine
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4. L. Kenny
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5. L. Bouchaou
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Correspondence toH. Abahous.

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Abahous, H., Ronchail, J., Sifeddine, A. et al. Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932–2010.Theor Appl Climatol 134, 1153–1163 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2325-0

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• Received: 05 May 2017
• Accepted: 08 November 2017
• Published: 25 November 2017
• Issue Date: November 2018
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2325-0