Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960–2010: decomposition of determining factors (original) (raw)

Abstract

This paper analyses factors that contributed to the evolution of SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions in Europe from 1960 to 2010. Historical energy balances, along with population and economic growth data, are used to quantify the impacts of major determinants of changing emission levels, including energy intensity, conversion efficiency, fuel mix, and pollution control. Time series of emission levels are compared for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, throwing light on differences in the importance of particular emission-driving forces. Three quarters of the decline in SO2 emissions in Western Europe resulted from a combination of reduced energy intensity and improved fuel mix, while dedicated end-of-pipe abatement measures played a dominant role in the reduction of NOx emissions. The increase in atmospheric emissions in Eastern Europe through the mid-1990s was associated with the growth of energy-intensive industries, which off-setted the positive impact of better fuel quality and changes in fuel mix. A continuous decrease in energy intensity and higher conversion efficiencies have been the main factors responsible for the moderate rate of growth of European CO2 emissions.

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Notes

  1. Ammonia emissions originate mainly from agricultural activities, such that temporal changes are driven by different forces than for more energy-related pollutants. Economic output of the agricultural sector, levels of primary agricultural production (e.g., livestock numbers), and the structural composition of livestock are used in the decomposition analysis.
  2. WEU thus includes 17 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom; EEU comprises 22 countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine.
  3. SO2 and NOx emission data from EMEP comprise gap-filled and gridded data based, for reasons of consistency, on official reported data supplemented by expert estimates for missing and/or low quality measurements.
  4. For the further discussion on the role of technological progress behind emission reductions and the effectiveness of international environmental treaties see, e.g., Barrett et al. (2006) and Dekker et al. (2012).

Abbreviations

Bln:

Billion

CAP:

Capita, person

CLRTAP:

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

CO:

Carbon monoxide

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide

EEU:

Eastern Europe

EKC:

Environmental Kuznets curve

EMEP:

European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme

EU:

European Union

FGD:

Flue gas desulphurisation

GAINS:

Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions And Synergies model

GDP:

Gross domestic product

GHG:

Greenhouse gas

Gt:

Giga tonnes

IEA:

International Energy Agency

J:

Joule (M Mega 106, G Giga 109, P Peta 1015)

Mt:

Mega tonnes

NOx :

Nitrogen oxides

PM:

Particulate matter

PPP:

Purchasing power parity

RAINS:

Regional Air pollution Information and Simulation model

SO2 :

Sulfur dioxide

UNFCCC:

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

US-$:

US dollar

VOCs:

Volatile organic compounds

WEU:

Western Europe

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Acknowledgments

The authors benefited from insights and discussions with J. Cofala and W. Schoepp from IIASA’s Mitigation of Air Pollution & Greenhouse Gases (MAG). We thank the reviewers for valuable comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria
    Peter Rafaj, Markus Amann & José Siri
  2. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Martin-Luther-King-Str. 8, 53175, Bonn, Germany
    Henning Wuester

Authors

  1. Peter Rafaj
  2. Markus Amann
  3. José Siri
  4. Henning Wuester

Corresponding author

Correspondence toPeter Rafaj.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on "Third International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories" edited by Jean Ometto and Rostyslav Bun.

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Rafaj, P., Amann, M., Siri, J. et al. Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960–2010: decomposition of determining factors.Climatic Change 124, 477–504 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0826-0

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