Probabilistic approach to risk analysis of chemical spills at sea (original) (raw)

Abstract

Risk analysis of chemical spills at sea and their consequences for sea environment are discussed. Mutual interactions between the process of the sea accident initiating events, the process of the sea environment threats, and the process of the sea environment degradation are investigated. To describe these three particular processes, the separate semi-Markov models are built. Furthermore, these models are jointed into one general model of these processes interactions. Moreover, some comments on the method for statistical identification of the considered models are proposed.

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References

  1. F. Grabski. Semi-Markov Models of System Reliability and Operations. Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, 2002. (in Polish)
  2. M. Bogalecka, M. Rutkowska. The tree of threats — the analysis of causes and results of the sea environment pollution. In Proceedings of Safety and Reliability International Conference (KONBiN 2001). Air Force Institute of Technology Press, Warsaw, vol. 3, pp. 17–27, 2001. (in Polish)
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  3. M. Bogalecka, K. Kolowrocki. Preliminary approach to risk analysis of chemical spills at sea. In Proceedings of Safety and Reliability International Conference — (KONBiN 2003). Air Force Institute of Technology Press, Warsaw, vol. 1, no 3, pp. 37–44, 2003. (in Polish)
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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, 81-225, Poland
    Magda Bogalecka & Krzysztof Kolowrocki

Authors

  1. Magda Bogalecka
  2. Krzysztof Kolowrocki

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Correspondence toMagda Bogalecka.

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Magda Bogalecka is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Chemistry and Industrial Commodity Science at the Faculty of Business Administration of Gdynia Maritime University. Her research interests include the transport of dangerous chemicals, sea accidents, and emergency response processes at sea. She has published more than 40 papers in journals and conference proceedings.

Krzysztof Kolowrocki is a Professor and the Head of the Mathematics Department at the Faculty of Navigation of Gdynia Maritime University. His research interests include mathematical modelling of safety and reliability of complex systems and processes. He has published more than 190 books, reports and papers in journals and conference proceedings. He is the Vice-President of the Polish Safety and Reliability Association.

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Bogalecka, M., Kolowrocki, K. Probabilistic approach to risk analysis of chemical spills at sea.Int J Automat Comput 3, 117–124 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11633-006-0117-6

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