Origination and extinction components of taxonomic diversity: General problems | Paleobiology | Cambridge Core (original) (raw)

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of cladogenesis and fossil preservation is used to explore the expected behavior of commonly used measures of taxonomic diversity and taxonomic rates with respect to interval length, quality of preservation, position of interval in a stratigraphic succession, and taxonomic rates themselves. Particular attention is focused on the independent estimation of origination and extinction rates. Modeling supports intuitive and empirical arguments that single-interval taxa, being especially sensitive to variation in preservation and interval length, produce many undesirable distortions of the fossil record. It may generally be preferable to base diversity and rate measures on estimated numbers of taxa extant at single points in time rather than to adjust conventional interval-based measures by discarding single-interval taxa.

A combination of modeling and empirical analysis of fossil genera supports two major trends in marine animal evolution. (1) The Phanerozoic decline in taxonomic rates is unlikely to be an artifact of secular improvement in the quality of the fossil record, a point that has been argued before on different grounds. (2) The post-Paleozoic rise in diversity may be exaggerated by the essentially complete knowledge of the living fauna, but this bias is not the principal cause of the pattern. The pattern may partly reflect a secular increase in preservation nevertheless.

Apparent temporal variation in taxonomic rates can be produced artificially by variation in preservation rate. Some empirical arguments suggest, however, that much of the short-term variation in taxonomic rates observed in the fossil record is real. (1) For marine animals as a whole, the quality of the fossil record of a higher taxon is not a good predictor of its apparent variability in taxonomic rates. (2) For a sample data set covering a cross-section of higher taxa in the Ordovician, most of the apparent variation in origination and extinction rates is not statistically attributable to independently measured variation in preservation rates. (3) Previous work has shown that standardized sampling to remove effects of variable preservation and sampling yields abundant temporal variation in estimated taxonomic rates. While modeling suggests which rate measures are likely to be most accurate in principle, the question of how best to capture true variation in taxonomic rates remains open.

References

Allmon, W. D., Rosenberg, G., Portell, R. W., and Schindler, K. S. 1993. Diversity of Atlantic Coastal Plain mollusks since the Pliocene. Science 260:1626–1629.Google Scholar

Alroy, J. 1992. Conjunction among taxonomic distributions and the Miocene mammalian biochronology of the Great Plains. Paleobiology 18:326–343.Google Scholar

Alroy, J. 1996a. Four methods of correcting diversity curves for sampling effects: which is best? Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 28:A107.Google Scholar

Alroy, J. 1996b. Constant extinction, constrained diversification, and uncoordinated stasis in North American mammals. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 127:285–311.Google Scholar

Alroy, J. 1998. Equilibrial diversity dynamics in North American mammals. Pp. 233–287 in McKinney, M. L. and Drake, J. A., eds. Biodiversity dynamics: turnover of populations, taxa and communities. Columbia University Press, New York.Google Scholar

Alroy, J. 1999. Putting North America's end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in context: large scale analyses of spatial patterns, extinction rates, and size distributions. Pp. 105–143 in MacPhee, R. D. E., ed. Extinctions in near time: causes, contexts, and consequences. Plenum, New York.Google Scholar

Alroy, J., Koch, P. L., and Zachos, J. C. 2000. In Erwin, D. H. and Wing, S. L., eds. Deep time: _Paleobiology'_s perspective. Paleobiology 26(Suppl. to No. 4):259–288.Google Scholar

Bambach, R. K. 1999. Energetics in the global marine fauna: a connection between terrestrial diversification and change in the marine biosphere. Geobios 32:131–144.Google Scholar

Barry, J. C., Morgan, M. E., Flynn, L. J., Pilbeam, D., Jacobs, L. L., Lindsay, E. H., Raza, S. M., and Solounias, N. 1995. Patterns of faunal turnover and diversity in the Neogene Siwaliks of northern Pakistan. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 115:209–226.Google Scholar

Benton, M. J. 1994. Palaeontological data and identifying mass extinctions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 9:181–185.Google Scholar

Bowring, S. A., and Erwin, D. H. 1998. A new look at evolutionary rates in deep time: uniting paleontology and high-precision geochronology. GSA Today 8(9):1–8.Google Scholar

Budd, A. F., and Johnson, K. G. 1999. Origination preceding extinction during late Cenozoic turnover of Caribbean reefs. Paleobiology 25:188–200.Google Scholar

Budd, A. F., Stemann, T., and Johnson, K. G. 1994. Stratigraphic distributions of genera and species of Neogene to Recent Caribbean reef corals. Journal of Paleontology 68:951–977.Google Scholar

Buzas, M. A., and Culver, S. J. 1994. Species pool and dynamics of marine paleocommunities. Science 264:1439–1441.Google Scholar

Buzas, M. A., and Culver, S. J. 1998. Assembly, disassembly, and balance in marine communities. Palaios 13:263–275.Google Scholar

Buzas, M. A., Koch, C. F., Culver, S. J., and Sohl, N. F. 1982. On the distribution of species occurrence. Paleobiology 8:143–150.Google Scholar

Cheetham, A. H., and Jackson, J. B. C. 1998. The fossil record of cheilostome Bryozoa in the Neogene and Quaternary of tropical America. Pp. 227–242 in Donovan, S. K. and Paul, C. R. C., eds. The adequacy of the fossil record. Wiley, Chichester, England.Google Scholar

Collins, L. S. 1989. Evolutionary rates of a rapid radiation: the Paleogene planktic foraminifera. Palaios 4:251–263.Google Scholar

Foote, M. 1994. Temporal variation in extinction risk and temporal scaling of extinction metrics. Paleobiology 20:424–444.Google Scholar

Foote, M. 1997. Estimating taxonomic durations and preservation probability. Paleobiology 23:278–300.Google Scholar

Foote, M. 1999. Morphological diversity in the evolutionary radiation of Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic crinoids. Paleobiology Memoirs No. 1. Paleobiology 25(Suppl. to No. 2).Google Scholar

Foote, M. 2000. Origination and extinction components of taxonomic diversity: Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic dynamics. Paleobiology 26:578–605.Google Scholar

Foote, M. In press a. Evolutionary rates and the age distributions of living and extinct taxa. In Jackson, J. B. C., McKinney, F. K., and Lidgard, S., eds. Evolutionary patterns: growth, form, and tempo in the fossil record. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar

Foote, M. In press b. Estimating completeness of the fossil record. In Briggs, D. E. G. and Crowther, P. R., eds. Paleobiology II. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.Google Scholar

Foote, M., and Raup, D. M. 1996. Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa. Paleobiology 22:121–140.Google Scholar

Foote, M., and Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1999. Absolute measures of the completeness of the fossil record. Nature 398:415–417.Google Scholar

Gilinsky, N. L. 1991. The pace of taxonomic evolution. In Gilinsky, N. L. and Signor, P. W., eds. Analytical paleobiology. Short Courses in Paleontology 4:157–174. Paleontological Society, Knoxville, Tenn.Google Scholar

Gilinsky, N. L., and Bambach, R. K. 1987. Asymmetrical patterns of origination and extinction in higher taxa. Paleobiology 13:427–445.Google Scholar

Gingerich, P. D. 1987. Extinction of Phanerozoic marine families. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 19:677.Google Scholar

Harland, W. B., Armstrong, R. L., Cox, A. V., Craig, L. E., Smith, A. G., and Smith, D. G. 1990. A geologic time scale 1989. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar

Harper, C. W. Jr. 1975. Standing diversity of fossil groups in successive intervals of geologic time: a new measure. Journal of Paleontology 49:752–757.Google Scholar

Harper, C. W. Jr. 1996. Patterns of diversity, extinction, and origination in the Ordovician-Devonian Stropheodontacea. Historical Biology 11:267–288.Google Scholar

Hessler, R. R., and Sanders, H. L. 1967. Faunal diversity in the deep sea. Deep-Sea Research 14:65–78.Google Scholar

Holland, S. M. 1995. The stratigraphic distribution of fossils. Paleobiology 21:92–109.Google Scholar

Holland, S. M., and Patzkowsky, M. E. 1999. Models for simulating the fossil record. Geology 27:491–494.Google Scholar

Holman, E. W. 1985. Gaps in the fossil record. Paleobiology 11:221–226.Google Scholar

Jackson, J. B. C., Jung, P., Coates, A. G., and Collins, L. S. 1993. Diversity and extinction of tropical American mollusks and emergence of the Isthmus of Panama. Science 260:1624–1626.Google Scholar

Johnson, K. G. 1998. A phylogenetic test of accelerated turnover in Neogene Caribbean brain corals (Scleractinia: Faviidae). Palaeontology 41:1247–1267.Google Scholar

Kendall, D. G. 1948. On the generalized “birth-and-death” process. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 19:1–15.Google Scholar

Koch, C. F. 1991. Species extinctions across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary: observed patterns versus predicted sampling effects, stepwise or otherwise? Historical Biology 5:355–361.Google Scholar

Koch, C. F., and Morgan, J. P. 1988. On the expected distribution of species’ ranges. Paleobiology 14:126–138.Google Scholar

Maas, M. C., Anthony, M. R. L., Gingerich, P. D., Gunnell, G. F., and Krause, D. W. 1995. Mammalian generic diversity and turnover in the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene of the Bighorn and Crazy Mountains Basins, Wyoming and Montana (USA). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 115:181–207.Google Scholar

Mark, G. A., and Flessa, K. W. 1977. A test for evolutionary equilibria: Phanerozoic brachiopods and Cenozoic mammals. Paleobiology 3:17–22.Google Scholar

Markwick, P. J. 1998. Crocodilian diversity in space and time: the role of climate in paleoecology and its implications for understanding K/T extinctions. Paleobiology 24:470–497.Google Scholar

Marshall, C. R. 1990. Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges. Paleobiology 16:1–10.Google Scholar

Marshall, C. R. 1994. Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges: partial relaxation of the assumption of randomly distributed fossil horizons. Paleobiology 20:459–469.Google Scholar

Marshall, C. R., J. Alroy, and the NCEAS Phanerozoic Diversity Working Group. 1999. Towards a sample-standardized Phanerozoic diversity curve. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 31:A336.Google Scholar

McGhee, G. R. Jr. 1996. The Late Devonian mass extinction. Columbia University Press, New York.Google Scholar

Meldahl, K. H. 1990. Sampling, species abundance, and the stratigraphic signature of mass extinction: a test using Holocene tidal flat molluscs. Geology 18:890–893.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I. 1997a. Dissecting global diversity patterns: examples from the Ordovician Radiation. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28:85–104.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I. 1997b. A new look at age and area: the geographic and environmental expansion of genera during the Ordovician Radiation. Paleobiology 23:410–419.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I. 1998. Biotic transitions in global marine diversity. Science 281:1157–1160.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I., and Foote, M. 1996. Calibrating the Ordovician Radiation of marine life: implications for Phanerozoic diversity trends. Paleobiology 22:304–309.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I., and Mao, S. G. 1995. Association of orogenic activity with the Ordovician Radiation of marine life. Geology 23:305–308.Google Scholar

Miller, A. I., and Mao, S. G. 1998. Scales of diversification and the Ordovician Radiation. Pp. 288–310 in McKinney, M. L. and Drake, J. A., eds. Biodiversity dynamics: turnover of populations, taxa, and communities. Columbia University Press, New York.Google Scholar

Norell, M. A. 1992. Taxic origin and temporal diversity: the effect of phylogeny. Pp. 89–118 in Novacek, M. A. and Wheeler, Q. D., eds. Extinction and phylogeny. Columbia University Press, New York.Google Scholar

Patzkowsky, M. E., and Holland, S. M. 1997. Patterns of turnover in Middle and Upper Ordovician brachiopods of the eastern United States: a test of coordinated stasis. Paleobiology 23:420–443.Google Scholar

Paul, C. R. C. 1982. The adequacy of the fossil record. Pp. 75–117 in Joysey, K. A. and Friday, A. E., eds. Problems of phylogenetic reconstruction. Academic Press, London.Google Scholar

Paul, C. R. C. 1998. Adequacy, completeness and the fossil record. Pp. 1–22 in Donovan, S. K. and Paul, C. R. C., eds. The adequacy of the fossil record. Wiley, Chichester, England.Google Scholar

Pearson, P. N. 1992. Survivorship analysis of fossil taxa when real-time extinction rates vary: the Paleogene planktonic foraminifera. Paleobiology 18:115–131.Google Scholar

Pearson, P. N. 1996. Cladogenetic, extinction, and survivorship patterns from a lineage phylogeny: the Paleogene planktonic foraminifera. Micropaleontology 42:179–188.Google Scholar

Pease, C. M. 1985. Biases in the durations and diversities of fossil taxa. Paleobiology 11:272–292.Google Scholar

Pease, C. M. 1988a. Biases in the total extinction rates of fossil taxa. Journal of Theoretical Biology 130:1–7.Google Scholar

Pease, C. M. 1988b. Biases in the per-taxon origination and extinction rates of fossil taxa. Journal of Theoretical Biology 130:9–30.Google Scholar

Pease, C. M. 1992. On the declining extinction and origination rates of fossil taxa. Paleobiology 18:89–92.Google Scholar

Rampino, M. R., and Adler, A. C. 1998. Evidence for abrupt latest Permian mass extinction of foraminifera: results of tests for the Signor-Lipps effect. Geology 26:415–418.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1972. Taxonomic diversity during the Phanerozoic. Science 177:1065–1071.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1979. Biases in the fossil record of species and genera. Bulletin of the Carnegie Museum of Natural History 13:85–91.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1985. Mathematical models of cladogenesis. Paleobiology 11:42–52.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1986. Biological extinction in Earth history. Science 231:1528–1533.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1989. The case for extraterrestrial causes of extinction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 325:421–435.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M. 1991. A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species. Paleobiology 17:37–48.Google Scholar

Raup, D. M., and Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1982. Mass extinctions in the marine fossil record. Science 215:1501–1503.Google Scholar

Raymond, A., and Metz, C. 1995. Laurussian land-plant diversity during the Silurian and Devonian: mass extinction, sampling bias, or both? Paleobiology 21:74–91.Google Scholar

Rex, M. A., Stuart, C. T., Hessler, R. R., Allen, J. A., Sanders, H. L., and Wilson, G. D. F. 1993. Global-scale latitudinal patterns of species diversity in the deep-sea benthos. Nature 365:636–639.Google Scholar

Rex, M. A., Etter, R. J., and Stuart, C. T. 1997. Large-scale patterns of species diversity in the deep-sea benthos. Pp. 94–121 in Ormond, R. F. G., Gage, J. D., and Angel, M. V., eds. Marine biodiversity: patterns and processes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar

Sanders, H. L. 1968. Marine benthic diversity: a comparative study. American Naturalist 102:243–282.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1990. The taxonomic structure of periodic extinction. Geological Society of America Special Paper 247:33–44.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1991. Population biology models in macroevolution. In Gilinsky, N. L. and Signor, P. W., eds. Analytical paleobiology. Short Courses in Paleontology 4:136–156. Paleontological Society, Knoxville, Tenn.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1993. Phanerozoic diversity at the genus level: problems and prospects. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 25:A50.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1996. Patterns of Phanerozoic extinctions: a perspective from global databases. Pp. 35–52 in Walliser, O. H., ed. Global events and event stratigraphy. Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1997. Biodiversity: past, present, and future. Journal of Paleontology 71:533–539.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1998. Rates of speciation in the fossil record. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 353:315–326.Google Scholar

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr., and Koch, C. F. 1996. Evaluating paleontologic data relating to bio-events. Pp. 21–34 in Walliser, O. H., ed. Global events and event stratigraphy. Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar

Shaw, A. B. 1964. Time in stratigraphy. McGraw-Hill, New York.Google Scholar

Signor, P. W. III, and Lipps, J. H. 1982. Sampling bias, gradual extinction patterns and catastrophes in the fossil record. Geological Society of America Special Paper 190:291–296.Google Scholar

Solow, A. R., and Smith, W. 1997. On fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa. Paleobiology 23:271–278.Google Scholar

Stanley, S. M., and Yang, X. 1994. A double mass extinction at the end of the Paleozoic Era. Science 266:1340–1344.Google Scholar

Strauss, D., and Sadler, P. M. 1989. Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges. Mathematical Geology 21:411–427.Google Scholar

Tucker, R. D., and McKerrow, W. S. 1995. Early Paleozoic chronology: a review in light of new U-Pb zircon ages from Newfoundland and Britain. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 32:368–379.Google Scholar

Van Valen, L. M. 1984. A resetting of Phanerozoic community evolution. Nature 307:50–52.Google Scholar

Wagner, P. J. 1997. Patterns of morphologic diversification among the Rostroconchia. Paleobiology 23:115–150.Google Scholar

Wei, K.-Y., and Kennett, J. P. 1983. Nonconstant extinction rates of Neogene planktonic foraminifera. Nature 305:218–220.Google Scholar

Wei, K.-Y., and Kennett, J. P. 1986. Taxonomic evolution of Neogene planktonic foraminifera and paleoceanographic relations. Paleoceanography 1:67–84.Google Scholar

Weiss, R. E., and Marshall, C. R. 1999. The uncertainty in the true end point of a fossil's stratigraphic range when stratigraphic sections are sampled discretely. Mathematical Geology 31:435–453.Google Scholar