Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming (original) (raw)

Nature volume 344, pages 529–531 (1990) Cite this article

Abstract

IN the past few years, many workers have noted that the combined effect on climate of increases in the concentrations of a large number of trace gases could rival or even exceed that of the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide1–3. These trace gases, principally methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, are present at concentrations that are two to six orders of magnitude lower than that of carbon dioxide, but are important because, per molecule, they absorb infrared radiation much more strongly than carbon dioxide. Indeed a recent study4 shows that trace gases are responsible for 43% of the increase in radiative forcing from 1980 to 1990 (Fig. 1). An index to compare the contribution of various 'greenhouse' gas emissions to global warming is needed to develop cost-effective strategies for limiting this warming. Estimates of relative contributions to additional greenhouse forcing during particular periods do not fully take into account differences in atmospheric residence times among the important greenhouse gases. Here we extend recent work on halocarbons5,6 by proposing an index of global warming potential for methane, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide and CFCs relative to that of carbon dioxide. We find, for example, that methane has, per mole, a global warming potential 3.7 times that of carbon dioxide. On this basis, carbon dioxide emissions account for 80% of the contribution to global warming of current greenhouse gas emissions, as compared with 57% of the increase in radiative forcing for the 1980s.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 52 print issues and online access

$199.00 per year

only $3.83 per issue

Buy this article

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Additional access options:

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Lacis, A., Hansen, J., Lee, P., Mitchell, T. & Lebedeff, S. Geophys. Res. Lett. 8, 1035–1038 (1981).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  2. Ramanathan, V., Cicerone, R. J., Singh, H. B. & Kiehl, J. T. J. geophys. Res. 90, 5547–5566 (1985).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  3. Hansen, J. et al. J. geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364 (1988).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  4. Hansen, J., Lacis, A. & Prather, M. J. geophys. Res. 94, 16417–16421 (1989).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  5. Rogers, J. & Stephens, D. J. geophys. Res. 90, 2423–2428 (1988).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  6. Fisher, D. et al. Nature 344, 513–516 (1990).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  7. Swart, R., de Boois, H. & Vellinga, P. in The Full Range of Responses to Anticipated Climatic Change Ch. 9, 137–159 (United Nations Environment Program and The Beijer Institute, Stockholm, 1989).
    Google Scholar
  8. Smith, K. & Ahuja, D. Clim. Change (in the press).
  9. Noordwijk Declaration on Atmospheric Pollution and Climatic Change (Netherlands Ministry of Environment, The Hague, November 1989).
  10. DeLuchi, M., Sperling, D. & Johnston, R. Transportation Fuels and the Greenhouse Effect (University of California. University Energy Research Group, UER-182, 1987).
    Google Scholar
  11. Okken, P. & Kram, T. CH4 / CO-emission from fossil fuels global warming potential ESC-WR-89-12 (ECN, Petten, The Netherlands, June 1989).
    Google Scholar
  12. Dickinson, R. & Cicerone, R. Nature 319, 109–114 (1986).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  13. Wuebbles, D. The Relative Efficiency of a Number of Halocarbons for Destroying Stratospheric Ozone Report UCID-18924 (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 1981).
    Google Scholar
  14. Maier-Reimer, E. & Hasselmann, K. Clim. Dyn. 2, 63–90 (1987).
    Article Google Scholar
  15. Edmonds, J. & Wuebbles, D. A Primer on Greenhouse Gases (US Department of Energy, NBB-0083, Washington, DC, 1988).
    Google Scholar
  16. Lashof, D. Clim. Change 14, 213–242 (1989).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  17. Thompson, A. & Cicerone, R. J. geophys. Res. 91, 10853–10864 (1986).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  18. Lashof, D. & Tirpak, D. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate Draft Report to Congress (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 1989).
    Google Scholar
  19. Cicerone, R. & Oremland, R. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2, 299–328 (1988).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  20. Prather, M. An Assessment Model for Atmospheric Composition NASA Conference Publication 3023 (NASA, Washington, DC, 1989).
    Google Scholar
  21. Thompson, A. et al. Atmos. Envir. 23, 519–532 (1989).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  22. Ramanathan, V. et al. Rev. Geophys. 25, 1441–1482 (1987).
    Article ADS CAS Google Scholar
  23. Okken, P. Energy Policy (in the press).

Download references

Author information

Author notes

  1. Dilip R. Ahuja
    Present address: The Bruce Company, Suite 215, 1100 6th Street, Southwest Washington, DC 20024, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Natural Resources Defense Council, 1350 New York Avenue, Northwest Washington, DC 20005, USA
    Daniel A. Lashof
  2. Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, 110003, India
    Dilip R. Ahuja

Authors

  1. Daniel A. Lashof
  2. Dilip R. Ahuja

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lashof, D., Ahuja, D. Relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming.Nature 344, 529–531 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1038/344529a0

Download citation

This article is cited by