A sequential-decision strategy for abating climate change (original) (raw)

Nature volume 357, pages 315–318 (1992) Cite this article

Abstract

CURRENT debate on policies for limiting climate change due to greenhouse-gas emissions focuses on whether to take action now or later, and on how stringent any emissions reductions should be in the near and long term. Any reductions policies implemented now will need to be revised later as scientific understanding of climate change improves. Here we consider the effects of a sequential-decision strategy (Fig. 1) consisting of a near-term period (1992–2002) during which either moderate emissions reductions (achieved by energy conservation only) or aggressive reductions (energy conservation coupled with switching to other fuel sources) are begun, and a subsequent long-term period during which a least-cost abatement policy is followed to limit global mean temperature change to an optimal target Δ_T_*. For each policy we calculate the global mean surface temperature change Δ_T_(t) using a simple climate/ocean model for climate sensitivities Δ_T_2_x_. (the response to doubled CO2, concentrations) of 4.5,2.5,1.5 and 0.5 °C. The policy beginning with moderate reductions is less expensive than that with aggressive reductions if Δ_T_*>2.9, 2.1, 1.5 and 0.9 °C respectively; otherwise, the aggressive-reductions policy is cheaper. We suggest that this approach should assist in choosing realistic targets and in determining how best to implement emissions reductions in the short and long term.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 52 print issues and online access

$199.00 per year

only $3.83 per issue

Buy this article

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Additional access options:

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Rijsberman, F. R. & Swart, R. J. Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change (Stockholm Environment Institute, 1990).
    Google Scholar
  2. Wirth, D. A. & Lashof, D. A. Ambio 19, 305–310 (1990).
    Google Scholar
  3. Hammitt, J. K. & Lempert, R. J. in Proc. Conf. Global Climate Change: Los Alamos National Laboratory, October 21–24, 1991 (eds Rosen, L. & Glasser, R.) (Am. Inst. Phys., in the press).
    Google Scholar
  4. Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J. & Ephraums, J. J. (eds) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
  5. Hafele, W. (ed.) Energy in a Finite World: A Global Systems Analysis (Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1981).
  6. Fisher, J. C. & Pry, R. H. Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change, General Electric Co. Res. Dev. Center Rep. 70-C-215 (Schenectady, New York, 1970).
  7. Maier-Reimer, E. & Hasselmann, K. Clim. Dynam. 2, 63–90 (1987).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  8. Schlesinger, M. E. & Jiang, X. Nature 350, 219–221 (1991).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  9. Lindzen, R. S. Bull. Am. met. Soc. 71, 288–299 (1990).
    Article Google Scholar
  10. Hansen, J. & Lebedeff, S. J. geophys. Res. 92, 13345–13372 (1987).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  11. Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L. & Wright, P. B. Nature 322, 430–434 (1986).
    Article ADS Google Scholar
  12. National Academy of Sciences Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming (National Academy, Washington, DC, 1991).
  13. Office of Technology Assessment, US Congress Changing by Degrees: Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gases. OTA-O-482 (Washington, DC, 1991).
  14. Fickett, A. P., Gellings, C. W. & Lovins, A. B. Scient. Am. 263, 64–74 (1990).
    Article Google Scholar
  15. Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress New Electric Power Technologies, OTA-E-246 (Washington, DC, 1985).
  16. Manne, A. S. & Richels, R. G. Energy J. 12, 87–108 (1991).
    Article Google Scholar
  17. Nordhaus, W. D. Energy J. 12, 37–65 (1991).
    Article Google Scholar
  18. Ausubel, J. H. Nature 350, 649–652 (1991).
    Article ADS Google Scholar

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California, 90407-2138, USA
    James K. Hammitt & Robert J. Lempert
  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 105 South Gregory Avenue, Urbana, Illinois, 61801, USA
    Michael E. Schlesinger

Authors

  1. James K. Hammitt
  2. Robert J. Lempert
  3. Michael E. Schlesinger

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hammitt, J., Lempert, R. & Schlesinger, M. A sequential-decision strategy for abating climate change.Nature 357, 315–318 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1038/357315a0

Download citation

This article is cited by