Global and societal implications of the diabetes epidemic (original) (raw)

References

  1. Zimmet, P. Globalization, coca-colonization and the chronic disease epidemic: can the doomsday scenario be averted? J. Intern. Med. 247, 301–310 (2000).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  2. Amos, A., McCarty, D. & Zimmet, P. The rising global burden of diabetes and its complications: estimates and projections to the year 2010. Diabetic Med. 14, S1–S85 (1997).
    Article PubMed Google Scholar
  3. King, H., Aubert, R. & Herman, W. Global burden of diabetes, 1995–2025. Prevalence, numerical estimates and projections. Diabetes Care 21, 1414–1431 (1998).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  4. Astrup, A. & Finer, N. Redefining type 2 diabetes: 'diabesity' or 'obesity dependent diabetes mellitus'? Obesity Rev. 1, 57–59 (2000).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  5. Shafrir, E. Development and consequences of insulin resistance: lessons from animals with hyperinsulinaemia. Diabetes Metab. 22, 131–148 (1997).
    Google Scholar
  6. World Health Organization. Definition, Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes mellitus and its Complications. Part 1: Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes Mellitus (Department of Noncommunicable Disease Surveillance, Geneva, 1999).
  7. Zimmet, P. Diabetes epidemiology as a trigger to diabetes research. Diabetologia 42, 499–518 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  8. Hennekens, G. & Buring, J. Epidemiology in Medicine (Little, Brown, Boston, 1987).
    Google Scholar
  9. American Diabetes Association. Economic consequences of diabetes mellitus in the U.S. in 1997. Diabetes Care 21, 296–309 (1998).
  10. Fagot-Gampagna, A. et al. Type 2 diabetes among North American children and adolescents: an epidemiologic review and a public health perspective. J. Pediatr. 136, 664–672 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
  11. Fagot-Campagna, A. & Narayan, K. Type 2 diabetes in children. Br. Med. J. 322, 377–387 (2001).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  12. Songer, T. The economic costs of NIDDM. Diabetes/Metabol. Rev. 8, 389–404 (1992).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  13. Diabetes Control and Complications Trial Research Group. The effect of intensive treatment of diabetes on the development and progression of long-term complications in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. N. Engl. J. Med. 329, 977–986 (1993).
  14. United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Group (UKPDS). Intensive blood-glucose control with sulfonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with Type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33). Lancet 352, 837–853 (1998).
  15. Reichard, P., Nilsson, B.-Y. & Rosenqvist, U. The effect of long-term intensified insulin treatment on the development of microvascular complications of diabetes mellitus. N. Engl. J. Med. 329, 304–309 (1993).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  16. Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE) Study. Effects of ramipril on cardiovascular and microvascular outcomes in people with diabetes mellitus: results of the HOPE study and MICRO-HOPE substudy. Lancet 355, 253–259 (2000).
  17. Ohkubo, Y. et al. Intensive insulin therapy prevents the progression of diabetic microvascular complications in Japanese patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus: a randomized prospective 6-year study. Diabetes Res. Clin. Pract. 28, 103–117 (1995).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  18. Pyörälä, K., Pedersen, T., Kjeksus, J., Faergerman, O. & Olsson, A. Cholesterol lowering with simvastatin improves prognosis of diabetic patients with coronary heart disease. A subgroup analysis of the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S). Diabetes Care 20, 614–620 (1997).
    Article PubMed Google Scholar
  19. Sacks, F., Pfeffer, M. & Moye, L. The effect of pravastatin on coronary events after myocardial infarction in patients with average cholesterol levels. Cholesterol and Recurrent Events Trial Investigators. N. Engl. J. Med. 335, 1001–1009 (1996).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  20. Zimmet, P. The pathogenesis and prevention of diabetes in adults. Genes, autoimmunity, and demography. Diabetes Care 18, 1050–1064 (1995).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  21. Pan, X. et al. Effects of diet and exercise in preventing NIDDM in people with impaired glucose tolerance. The Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study. Diabetes Care 20, 537–544 (1997).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  22. Tuomilehto, J. et al. Prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus by changes in lifestyle among subjects with impaired glucose tolerance. N. Engl. J. Med. 344, 1343–1350 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  23. Eastman, R., Javitt, J., Herman, W., Dasbach, E. & Harris, M. in Diabetes Mellitus: A Fundamental and Clinical Text (eds Le-Roith, D., Taylor, S. & Olefsky, J.) 621–630 (Lippincott-Raven, New York, 1996).
    Google Scholar
  24. World Health Organization. Diabetes Mellitus: Report of a WHO Study Group (WHO, Geneva, 1985).
  25. Harris, M. & Zimmet, P. in International Textbook of Diabetes Mellitus 2nd edn (eds Alberti, K., Zimmet, P. & DeFronzo, R.) 9–23 (Wiley, Chichester, 1997).
    Google Scholar
  26. Shaw, J., Hodge, A., de Courten, M., Chitson, P. & Zimmet, P. Isolated post-challenge hyperglycaemia confirmed as a risk factor for mortality. Diabetologia 42, 1050–1054 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  27. DECODE Study Group. Will new diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus change phenotype of patients with diabetes? Reanalysis of European epidemiological data. Br. Med. J. 317, 371–375 (1998).
  28. Tominaga, M. et al. Impaired glucose tolerance is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but not impaired fasting glucose. The Funagata Diabetes Study. Diabetes Care 22, 920–924 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  29. Perry, R. & Baron, A. Impaired glucose tolerance. Why is it not a disease? Diabetes Care 22, 883–884 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  30. Zimmet, P. & Alberti, K. The changing face of macrovascular disease in non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in different cultures: an epidemic in progress. Lancet 350, S1–S4 (1997).
    Article Google Scholar
  31. Alberti, K. G. M. M. Impaired glucose tolerance—fact or fiction. Diabetic Med. 13, 6–8 (1996).
    Article Google Scholar
  32. American Diabetes Association Expert Committee. Report of the Expert Committee. Diabetes Care 20, 1183–1197 (1997).
  33. Shaw, J. et al. Impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance. What best predicts future diabetes in Mauritius. Diabetes Care 22, 399–402 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  34. Groop, L. The molecular genetics of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus. J. Intern. Med. 241, 95–110 (1997).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  35. Haffner, S. M., Stern, M. P., Hazuda, H. P., Mitchell, B. D. & Patterson, J. K. Cardiovascular risk factors in confirmed prediabetic individuals. Does the clock for coronary heart disease start ticking before the onset on clinical diabetes? J. Am. Med. Assoc. 263, 2893–2898 (1990).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  36. Reaven, G. Role of insulin resistance in human disease. Diabetes 37, 1595–1607 (1988).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  37. Zimmet, P., Boyko, E., Collier, G. & de Courten, M. in The Metabolic Syndrome X Vol. 892 (eds Hansen, B., Saye, J. & Wennogle, L.) 25–44 (New York Academy of Sciences, New York, 1999).
    Google Scholar
  38. Isomaa, B. et al. Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality associated with the metabolic syndrome. Diabetes Care 24, 683–689 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  39. Rosenbloom, A., Joe, J., Young, R. & Winter, W. Emerging epidemic of Type 2 diabetes in youth. Diabetes Care 22, 345–354 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  40. American Diabetes Association. Type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents. Diabetes Care 23, 381–389 (2000).
  41. Ehtisham, S., Barrett, T. & Shaw, N. Type 2 diabetes mellitus in UK children—an emerging problem. Diabetic Med. 17, 867–871 (2000).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  42. Kitagawa, T., Owada, M., Urakami, T. & Yamanchi, K. Increased incidence of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus among Japanese school children correlates with an increased intake of animal protein and fat. Clin. Pediatr. 37, 111–116 (1998).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  43. Dowse, G., Zimmet, P., Finch, C. & Collins, V. Decline in incidence of epidemic glucose intolerance in Nauruans: implications for the thrifty genotype. Am. J. Epidemiol. 133, 1093–1104 (1991).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  44. Zimmet, P., Turner, R., McCarty, D., Rowley, M. & Mackay, I. Crucial points at diagnosis—NIDDM or slow IDDM. Diabetes Care 22, B59–B64 (1999).
    PubMed Google Scholar
  45. de Courten, M., Bennett, P. H., Tuomilehto, J. & Zimmet, P. in International Textbook of Diabetes Mellitus 2nd edn (eds Alberti, K. G. M. M., Zimmet, P., DeFronzo, R. A. & Keen, H.) 143–170 (Wiley, Chichester, 1997).
    Google Scholar
  46. Ramachandran, A., Snehalatha, C., Latha, E., Vijay, V. & Viswanathan, M. Rising prevalence of NIDDM in an urban population in India. Diabetologia 40, 232–237 (1997).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  47. O'Dea, K. Westernisation, insulin resistance and diabetes in Australian Aborigines. Med. J. Aust. 155, 258–264 (1991).
    CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  48. Zimmet, P., Dowse, G., Finch, C., Serjeantson, S. & King, H. The epidemiology and natural history of NIDDM—lessons from the South Pacific. Diabetes/Metabol. Rev. 6, 91–124 (1990).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  49. Tan, C., Emmanuel, S., Tan, B.-Y. & Jacob, E. Prevalence of diabetes and ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk factors. Diabetes Care 22, 241–247 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  50. Chou, P., Chen, H. & Hsiao, K. Community-based epidemiological study on diabetes in Pu-Li, Taiwan. Diabetes Care 15, 81–89 (1992).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  51. Pan, X.-R., Yang, W.-Y., Li, G.-W. & Liu, J. Prevalence of diabetes and its risk factors in China. National Diabetes Prevention and Control Cooperative Group. Diabetes Care 20, 1664–1669 (1997).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  52. Zimmet, P. Kelly West Lecture 1991. Challenges in diabetes epidemiology—from West to the Rest. Diabetes Care 15, 232–252 (1992).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  53. Neel, J. Diabetes mellitus: a thrifty genotype rendered detrimental by “progress”? Am. J. Hum. Genet. 14, 353–362 (1962).
    CAS PubMed PubMed Central Google Scholar
  54. Dowse, G. & Zimmet, P. The thrifty genotype in non-insulin-dependent diabetes. The hypothesis survives. Br. Med. J. 306, 532–533 (1993).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  55. Collier, G. et al. Beacon: A novel gene involved in the regulation of energy balance. Diabetes 49, 1766–1771 (2000).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  56. Hales, C. N. & Barker, D. J. P. Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: the thrifty phenotype hypothesis. Diabetologia 35, 595–601 (1992).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  57. Harding, J. The nutritional basis of the fetal origins of adult disease. Int. J. Epidemiol. 30, 15–23 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  58. Hattersley, A. & Tooke, J. The fetal insulin hypothesis: an alternative explanation of the association of low birthweight with diabetes and vascular disease. Lancet 353, 1789–1792 (1999).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  59. Joseph, K. & Kramer, M. Review of the evidence on fetal and early childhood antecedents of adult chronic disease. Epidemiol. Rev. 18, 158–174 (1996).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  60. Zimmet, P. & Lefebvre, P. The global NIDDM epidemic. Treating the disease and ignoring the symptom. Diabetologia 39, 1247–1248 (1996).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  61. Zimmet, P. & Chitson, P. Non-Communicable Diseases in Health in the Commonwealth 74–80 (Kensington Publications, London, 2000).
    Google Scholar
  62. The Diabetes Prevention Program. Design and methods for a clinical trial in the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 22, 623–634 (1999).
  63. Larkin, M. Diet and exercise delay onset of type 2 diabetes, say US experts. Lancet 358, 565 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  64. UKPDS. Overview of 6 years' therapy of type II diabetes: a progressive disease (UKPDS 16). Diabetes 44, 1249–1258 (1995).
  65. Sicree, R., Zimmet, P., King, H. & Coventry, J. Plasma insulin response among Nauruans: prediction of deterioration in glucose tolerance over 6 yrs. Diabetes 36, 179–186 (1987).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  66. Mann, J. Stemming the tide of diabetes mellitus. Lancet 356, 1454–1455 (2000).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  67. Bloom, B. Public-health priorities in the industrialised world. Lancet 356 (Suppl. 1), 50–51 (2000).
    Article Google Scholar
  68. Bonetta, L. Scientists battle obesity overload. Nature Med. 7, 387 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  69. McKinlay, J. & Marceau, L. US public health and the 21st century: diabetes mellitus. Lancet 356, 757–761 (2000).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  70. Harrison, L., Kay, T., Colman, P. & Honeyman, M. in Diabetes in the New Millennium (eds Turtle, J. & Osato, S.) 85–100 (The Endocrinology and Diabetes Research Foundation of the University of Sydney, Sydney, 1999).
    Google Scholar
  71. Atkinson, M. & Maclaren, N. The pathogenesis of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. N. Engl. J. Med. 331, 1428–1436 (1994).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  72. Karvonen, M., Tuomilehto, J., Libman, I. & LaPorte, R. A review of the recent epidemiological data on the worldwide incidence of Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. Diabetologia 36, 883–892 (1993).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  73. Tuomilehto, J. et al. Epidemiology of childhood diabetes mellitus in Finland—background of a nationwide study of type 1 diabetes (insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus. Diabetologia 36, 70–76 (1992).
    Article Google Scholar
  74. Tuomilehto, J. et al. Comparison of the incidence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus among five Baltic populations during 1983–1988. Int. J. Epidemiol. 21, 518–527 (1992)
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  75. Tuomilehto, J. et al. Comparison of incidence of IDDM in childhood between Estonia and Finland, 1980–1988. Diabetes Care 14, 982–988 (1991).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  76. Tuomilehto, J., Tuomilehto-Wolf, E., Zimmet, P., Alberti, K. & Knowler, W. in International Textbook of Diabetes Mellitus 2nd edn (eds Alberti, K., Zimmet, P., DeFronzo, R. & Keen, H.) 1799–1827 (Wiley, Chichester, 1997).
    Google Scholar
  77. Myers, M., Mackay, I., Rowley, M. & Zimmet, P. Dietary microbial toxins and Type 1 diabetes—a new meaning for seed and soil. Diabetologia 44, 1199–1200 (2001).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar
  78. Herold, K., Bloch, T., Vezys, V. & Sun, Q. Diabetes induced with low doses of streptozotocin is mediated by V beta 8.2+ cells. Diabetes 44, 354–359 (1995).
    Article CAS PubMed Google Scholar

Download references