Severe summertime flooding in Europe (original) (raw)

Climate modelling

Nature volume 421, pages 805–806 (2003) Cite this article

Even as summers become drier, the incidence of severe precipitation could increase.

Abstract

Using a high-resolution climate model, we are able to quantify the influence of greenhouse-gas-induced global warming upon heavy or extended precipitation episodes that inflict catastrophic flooding. We find that an increase in the amount of precipitation that exceeds the 95th percentile is very likely in many areas of Europe, despite a possible reduction in average summer precipitation over a substantial part of the continent. Our results indicate that episodes of severe flooding may become more frequent, despite a general trend towards drier summer conditions.

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Figure 1: Relative percentage change in precipitation for July–September in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A2 scenario with respect to the present day.

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References

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen Ø, 2100, Denmark
    Jens H. Christensen & Ole B. Christensen

Authors

  1. Jens H. Christensen
  2. Ole B. Christensen

Corresponding author

Correspondence toJens H. Christensen.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Christensen, J., Christensen, O. Severe summertime flooding in Europe.Nature 421, 805–806 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1038/421805a

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