Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing (original) (raw)

• Twomey, S. Aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Atmos. Environ. A 25, 2435–2442 (1991)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Forster, P. et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 129–234 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)
• Lohmann, U. & Feichter, J. Global indirect aerosol effects: a review. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 715–737 (2005)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Stevens, B. & Feingold, G. Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system. Nature 461, 607–613 (2009)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D. & Cox, P. J. Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Nature 435, 1187–1190 (2005)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Quaas, J. et al. Aerosol indirect effects—general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 8697–8717 (2009)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Lohmann, U. & Ferrachat, S. Impact of parametric uncertainties on the present-day climate and on the anthropogenic aerosol effect. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 11373–11383 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Pan, W. W., Tatang, M. A., McRae, G. J. & Prinn, R. G. Uncertainty analysis of indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 3815–3823 (1998)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Andreae, M. O. Aerosols before pollution. Science 315, 50–51 (2007)
  Article CAS Google Scholar
• Andreae, M. O. & Rosenfeld, D. Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. Part 1. The nature and sources of cloud-active aerosols. Earth Sci. Rev. 89, 13–41 (2008)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Penner, J. E., Xu, L. & Wang, M. H. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 13404–13408 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Hoose, C. et al. Constraining cloud droplet number concentration in GCMs suppresses the aerosol indirect effect. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12807 (2009)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Adams, P. J. & Seinfeld, J. H. Predicting global aerosol size distributions in general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res. 107 4370 10.1029/2001JD001010 (2002)
  Article Google Scholar
• Liu, X., Penner, J. E. & Herzog, M. Global modeling of aerosol dynamics: model description, evaluation, and interactions between sulfate and nonsulfate aerosols. J. Geophys. Res. 110 D18206 10.1029/2004JD005674 (2005)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Spracklen, D. V. et al. A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics. I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 2227–2252 (2005)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Mann, G. W. et al. Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model. Geosci. Model Dev. 3, 519–551 (2010)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Dentener, F. et al. Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 4321–4344 (2006)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Lee, L. A. et al. The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 8879–8914 (2013)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Lee, L. A., Carslaw, K. S., Pringle, K. J. & Mann, G. W. Mapping the uncertainty in global CCN using emulation. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 9739–9751 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S. & Chan, K. P.-S. A quantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output. Technometrics 41, 39–56 (1999)
  Article Google Scholar
• Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Morcrette, J.-J. & Boucher, O. Estimates of aerosol radiative forcing from the MACC re-analysis. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 2045–2062 (2013)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Woodhouse, M. T. et al. Low sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei to changes in the sea-air flux of dimethyl-sulphide. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 7545–7559 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Schmidt, A. et al. Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 7321–7339 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geosci. 6, 415–416 (2013)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Manktelow, P. T., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W. & Spracklen, D. V. Variable CCN formation potential of regional sulfur emissions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 3253–3259 (2009)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Penner, J. E., Zhou, C. & Xu, L. Consistent estimates from satellites and models for the first aerosol indirect forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L13810 (2012)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Neelin, J. D., Bracco, A., Luo, H., McWilliams, J. C. & Meyerson, J. E. Considerations for parameter optimization and sensitivity in climate models. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 21349–21354 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Jones, A. et al. Indirect sulphate aerosol forcing in a climate model with an interactive sulphur cycle. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 20293–20310 (2001)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Edwards, J. M. & Slingo, A. Studies with a flexible new radiation code. I. Choosing a configuration for a large scale model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 689–719 (1996)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Rossow, W. B. &. Schiffer, R. A. Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 2261–2287 (1999)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Rap, A. et al. Natural aerosol direct and indirect radiative effects. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3297–3301 (2013)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Mann, G. W. et al. Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol microphysics representations within the same 3-D global chemical transport model. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 4449–4476 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Spracklen, D. V. et al. Explaining global surface aerosol number concentrations in terms of primary emissions and particle formation. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 4775–4793 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Reddington, C. L. et al. Primary versus secondary contributions to particle number concentrations in the European boundary layer. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 12007–12036 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Korhonen, H. et al. Influence of oceanic dimethyl sulfide emissions on cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and seasonality over the remote Southern Hemisphere oceans: a global model study. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D15204 (2008)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Spracklen, D. V., Carslaw, K. S., Poschl, U., Rap, A. & Forster, P. M. Global cloud condensation nuclei influenced by carbonaceous combustion aerosol. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 9067–9087 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Spracklen, D. V. et al. Aerosol mass spectrometer constraint on the global secondary organic aerosol budget. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 12109–12136 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Browse, J., Carslaw, K. S., Arnold, S. R., Pringle, K. & Boucher, O. The scavenging processes controlling the seasonal cycle in Arctic sulphate and black carbon aerosol. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 6775–6798 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Schmidt, A. et al. Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 15710–15715 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Pringle, K. J. et al. A multi-model assessment of the impact of sea spray geoengineering on cloud droplet number. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 11647–11663 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Chipperfield, M. P. New version of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT off-line chemical transport model: intercomparison of stratospheric tracer experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 1179–1203 (2006)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Bellouin, N. et al. Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 3027–3044 (2013)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Manktelow, P. T., Carslaw, K. S., Mann, G. W. & Spracklen, D. V. The impact of dust on sulfate aerosol, CN and CCN during an East Asian dust storm. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 365–382 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Arnold, S. R., Chipperfield, M. P. & Blitz, M. A. A three-dimensional model study of the effect of new temperature-dependent quantum yields for acetone photolysis. J. Geophys. Res. 110 D22305 10.1029/2005JD005998 (2005)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Lamarque, J.-F. et al. Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 7017–7039 (2010)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Fountoukis, C. & Nenes, A. Continued development of a cloud droplet formation parameterization for global climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D11212 (2005)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Morales, R. & Nenes, A. Characteristic updrafts for computing distribution-averaged cloud droplet number, autoconversion rate and effective radius. J. Geophys. Res. 115 D18220 10.1029/2009JD013233 (2010)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Peng, Y., Lohmann, U. & Leaitch, R. Importance of vertical velocity variations in cloud droplet nucleation process of marine stratus clouds. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 110 D21213 10.1029/2004JD004922 (2005)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Lu, M. & Seinfeld, J. H. Study of the aerosol indirect effect by large-eddy simulation of marine stratocumulus. J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 3909–3932 (2005)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Hill, A. A., Feingold, G. & Jiang, H. The influence of entrainment and mixing assumption on aerosol-cloud interactions in marine stratocumulus. J. Atmos. Sci. 66, 1450–1464 (2009)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Guo, H., Liu, Y. & Daum, P. H. Senum, G. I. & Tao, W.-K. Characteristics of vertical velocity in marine stratocumulus: comparison of large eddy simulations with observations. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 045020 (2008)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Ackerman, A. S. et al. The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect climate forcing. Nature 432, 1014–1017 (2004)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Wilson, J., Cuvelier, C. & Raes, F. A modeling study of global mixed aerosol fields. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 34081–34092 (2001)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Stocks, B. J. et al. Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. J. Geophys. Res. 107 8149 10.1029/2001JD000484 (2002)
  Article Google Scholar
• Luo, G. & Yu, F. Sensitivity of global cloud condensation nuclei concentrations to primary sulfate emission parameterizations. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1949–1959 (2011)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Stevens, R. G. et al. Nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol in coal-fired power plant plumes: sensitivity to background aerosol and meteorology. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 189–206 (2012)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Andres, R. J. & Kasgnoc, A. D. A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 25251–25262 (1998)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Kettle, A. J. & Andreae, M. O. Flux of dimethylsulfide from the oceans: a comparison of updated data sets and flux models. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 26793–26808 (2000)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Nightingale, P. D. et al. In situ evaluation of air-sea gas exchange parameterizations using novel conservative and volatile tracers. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 14, 373–387 (2000)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Woodhouse, M. T. et al. Sensitivity of cloud condensation nuclei to regional changes in dimethyl-sulphide emissions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 2723–2733 (2013)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Bastos, L. & O’Hagan, A. Diagnostics for Gaussian process emulators. Technometrics 4, 425–438 (2011)
  MathSciNet Google Scholar
• Cofala, J., Amann, M., Klimont, Z. & Schopp, W. Scenarios of World Anthropogenic Emissions of SO2, NOx and CO up to 2030. Internal report of the Transboundary Air Pollution Programme (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2005)
  Google Scholar
• Bond, T. C. et al. A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion. J. Geophys. Res. 109 D14203 10.1029/2003JD003697 (2004)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Collatz, G. J. & Giglio, L. Carbon emissions from fires in tropical and subtropical ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 547–562 (2003)
  Article ADS Google Scholar
• Gong, S. A parameterization of sea-salt aerosol source function for sub and super-micron particles. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 17 1097 10.1029/2003GB002079 (2003)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar
• Guenther, A. et al. A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 8873–8892 (1995)
  Article CAS ADS Google Scholar