Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback (original) (raw)
IPCC. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1535 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013)
Brown, J. & Romanovsky, V. E. Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century. Permafr. Periglac. Process.19, 255–260 (2008) Article Google Scholar
Romanovsky, V. E. et al. Thermal state of permafrost in Russia. Permafr. Periglac. Process.21, 136–155 (2010) Article Google Scholar
Zimov, S. A., Schuur, E. A. G. & Chapin, F. S. Permafrost and the global carbon budget. Science312, 1612–1613 (2006) ArticleCASPubMed Google Scholar
Tarnocai, C. et al. Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles23, GB2023 (2009) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Schuur, E. A. G. et al. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle. Bioscience58, 701–714 (2008) Article Google Scholar
Whiteman, G., Hope, C. & Wadhams, P. Climate science: vast costs of Arctic change. Nature499, 401–403 (2013) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
National Research Council. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (The National Academies Press, 2013)
Schädel, C. et al. Short communication on network related activities: research coordination network on the vulnerability of permafrost carbon. Frozen Ground37, 7 (2013) Google Scholar
Schuur, E. A. G. et al. Research coordination network on the vulnerability of permafrost carbon. Frozen Ground35, 6 (2011) Google Scholar
Hugelius, G. et al. Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps. Biogeosciences11, 6573–6593 (2014)Revised and updated current state of knowledge on permafrost soil organic carbon stocks at circumpolar scales. ArticleADS Google Scholar
Zimov, S. A. et al. Permafrost carbon: stock and decomposability of a globally significant carbon pool. Geophys. Res. Lett.33, L20502 (2006) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Ping, C.-L. et al. High stocks of soil organic carbon in the North American Arctic region. Nature Geosci.1, 615–619 (2008) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Harden, J. W. et al. Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Geophys. Res. Lett.39, L15704 (2012)Provides cumulative distributions of active layer thickness under current and future climates and estimates the amounts of newly thawed carbon and nitrogen. ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Strauss, J. et al. The deep permafrost carbon pool of the yedoma region in Siberia and Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett.40, 6165–6170 (2013)Quantifies the organic carbon pool for yedoma deposits and thermokarst deposits in Siberia and Alaska. ArticleADSCASPubMedPubMed Central Google Scholar
Grosse, G. et al. Distribution of late Pleistocene ice-rich syngenetic permafrost of the Yedoma Suite in east and central Siberia, Russia. US Geol. Surv. Open File Rep.2013–1078, 1–37 (2013) Google Scholar
Walter Anthony, K. M. et al. A shift of thermokarst lakes from carbon sources to sinks during the Holocene epoch. Nature511, 452–456 (2014) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Mishra, U. et al. Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges. Environ. Res. Lett.8, 035020 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Hugelius, G. et al. The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database: spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions. Earth Syst. Sci. Data5, 3–13 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Jobbágy, E. G. & Jackson, R. B. The vertical distribution of soil organic carbon and its relation to climate and vegetation. Ecol. Appl.10, 423–436 (2000) Article Google Scholar
Schirrmeister, L. et al. Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental records from the western Lena Delta, Arctic Siberia. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol.299, 175–196 (2011) Article Google Scholar
Kanevskiy, M., Shur, Y., Fortier, D., Jorgenson, M. T. & Stephani, E. Cryostratigraphy of late Pleistocene syngenetic permafrost (yedoma) in northern Alaska, Itkillik River exposure. Quat. Res.75, 584–596 (2011) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Schirrmeister, L. et al. Fossil organic matter characteristics in permafrost deposits of the northeast Siberian Arctic. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.116, G00M02 (2011) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Hugelius, G. et al. High-resolution mapping of ecosystem carbon storage and potential effects of permafrost thaw in periglacial terrain, European Russian Arctic. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.116, G03024 (2011) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Brosius, L. S. et al. Using the deuterium isotope composition of permafrost meltwater to constrain thermokarst lake contributions to atmospheric CH4 during the last deglaciation. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.117, G01022 (2012) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
McGuire, A. D. et al. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecol. Monogr.79, 523–555 (2009) Article Google Scholar
Walter, K. M., Edwards, M. E., Grosse, G., Zimov, S. A. & Chapin, F. S. Thermokarst lakes as a source of atmospheric CH4 during the last deglaciation. Science318, 633–636 (2007) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Romanovskii, N. N., Hubberten, H. W., Gavrilov, A. V., Eliseeva, A. A. & Tipenko, G. S. Offshore permafrost and gas hydrate stability zone on the shelf of East Siberian seas. Geo-Mar. Lett.25, 167–182 (2005) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Nicolsky, D. J. et al. Modeling sub-sea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf: the Laptev Sea region. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.117, F03028 (2012) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Dutta, K., Schuur, E. A. G., Neff, J. C. & Zimov, S. A. Potential carbon release from permafrost soils of Northeastern Siberia. Glob. Change Biol.12, 2336–2351 (2006) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Knoblauch, C., Beer, C., Sosnin, A., Wagner, D. & Pfeiffer, E.-M. Predicting long-term carbon mineralization and trace gas production from thawing permafrost of Northeast Siberia. Glob. Change Biol.19, 1160–1172 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Elberling, B. et al. Long-term CO2 production following permafrost thaw. Nature Clim. Change3, 890–894 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Kirschbaum, M. U. F. Will changes in soil organic carbon act as a positive or negative feedback on global warming? Biogeochemistry48, 21–51 (2000) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Kätterer, T., Reichstein, M., Andren, O. & Lomander, A. Temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition: a critical review using literature data analyzed with different models. Biol. Fertil. Soils27, 258–262 (1998) Article Google Scholar
Schädel, C. et al. Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data. Glob. Change Biol.20, 641–652 (2014)Synthesizes the decomposability of permafrost organic matter using incubation data and calculates potential carbon loss for high-latitude soils. ArticleADS Google Scholar
Treat, C. et al. A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations. Glob.Change Biol. doi:10.1111/gcb.12875. (in the press) ArticleADSPubMed Google Scholar
Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 659–740 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013)
Verville, J. H., Hobbie, S. E., Iii, F. S. C. & Hooper, D. U. Response of tundra CH4 and CO2 flux to manipulation of temperature and vegetation. Biogeochemistry41, 215–235 (1998) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Olefeldt, D., Turetsky, M. R., Crill, P. M. & McGuire, A. D. Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones. Glob. Change Biol.19, 589–603 (2013)Synthesis of data on growing-season CH4emissions from terrestrial ecosystems across permafrost zones. ArticleADS Google Scholar
Treat, C. C. et al. Temperature and peat type control CO2 and CH4 production in Alaskan permafrost peats. Glob. Change Biol.20, 2674–2686 (2014) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Ström, L., Tagesson, T., Mastepanov, M. & Christensen, T. R. Presence of Eriophorum scheuchzeri enhances substrate availability and methane emission in an Arctic wetland. Soil Biol. Biochem.45, 61–70 (2012) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., Romanovsky, V. E. & Nicolsky, D. J. Sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.113, F02011 (2008) ADS Google Scholar
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J. & Stern, A. Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 Earth system models. J. Clim.26, 1877–1900 (2013)Analysis of Earth system models projections of permafrost change in response to climate change scenarios. ArticleADS Google Scholar
Koven, C. D. et al. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA108, 14769–14774 (2011) ArticleADSPubMed Google Scholar
Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Bruhwiler, L. & Barrett, A. P. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus B63, 165–180 (2011) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Schneider von Deimling, T. et al. Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming. Biogeosciences9, 649–665 (2012) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
MacDougall, A. H., Avis, C. A. & Weaver, A. J. Significant contribution to climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature Geosci.5, 719–721 (2012) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Burke, E. J., Jones, C. D. & Koven, C. D. Estimating the permafrost-carbon climate response in the CMIP5 climate models using a simplified approach. J. Clim.26, 4897–4909 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Schaphoff, S. et al. Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget. Environ. Res. Lett.8, 014026 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Burke, E. J., Hartley, I. P. & Jones, C. D. Uncertainties in the global temperature change caused by carbon release from permafrost thawing. Cryosphere6, 1063–1076 (2012) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Zhuang, Q. et al. CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett.33, L17403 (2006) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Schuur, E. A. G. & Abbott, B. &. the Permafrost Carbon Network. Climate change: high risk of permafrost thaw. Nature480, 32–33 (2011) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Schuur, E. A. G. et al. Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change. Clim. Change119, 359–374 (2013)State of knowledge on changes in permafrost distribution and soil organic carbon stocks in response to climate warming based on expert survey. ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Schaefer, K., Lantuit, H., Romanovsky, V. E., Schuur, E. A. G. & Witt, R. The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. Environ. Res. Lett.9, 085003 (2014) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G. & Swenson, S. C. Simulation of present-day and future permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions in CCSM4. J. Clim.25, 2207–2225 (2012) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Slater, A. G. & Lawrence, D. M. Diagnosing present and future permafrost from climate models. J. Clim.26, 5608–5623 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Shaver, G. R. et al. Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: a conceptual framework for analysis. Bioscience50, 871–882 (2000) Article Google Scholar
Sistla, S. A. et al. Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage. Nature497, 615–618 (2013) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Qian, H., Joseph, R. & Zeng, N. Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the northern high latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections. Glob. Change Biol.16, 641–656 (2010) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Krieger, K. E. The topographic form and evolution of thermal erosion features: A first analysis using airborne and ground-based LiDAR in Arctic Alaska. MSc thesis, Idaho State Univ. (2012)
Jorgenson, M. T., Shur, Y. L. & Pullman, E. R. Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett.33, L02503 (2006) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Christensen, T. R. et al. Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: effects on vegetation and methane emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett.31, L04501 (2004) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Johansson, T. et al. Decadal vegetation changes in a northern peatland, greenhouse gas fluxes and net radiative forcing. Glob. Change Biol.12, 2352–2369 (2006) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Osterkamp, T. E. Characteristics of the recent warming of permafrost in Alaska. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.112, F02S02 (2007) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Baltzer, J. L., Veness, T., Chasmer, L. E., Sniderhan, A. E. & Quinton, W. L. Forests on thawing permafrost: fragmentation, edge effects, and net forest loss. Glob. Change Biol.20, 824–834 (2014) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Raynolds, M. K. et al. Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska. Glob. Change Biol.20, 1211–1224 (2014) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Jones, B. M. et al. Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.116, G00M03 (2011) Google Scholar
Smith, L. C., Sheng, Y., MacDonald, G. M. & Hinzman, L. D. Disappearing Arctic lakes. Science308, 1429 (2005) ArticleCASPubMed Google Scholar
Riordan, B., Verbyla, D. & McGuire, A. D. Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950–2002 remotely sensed images. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.111, G04002 (2006) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Roach, J., Griffith, B., Verbyla, D. & Jones, J. Mechanisms influencing changes in lake area in Alaskan boreal forest. Glob. Change Biol.17, 2567–2583 (2011) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Sannel, A. B. K. & Kuhry, P. Warming-induced destabilization of peat plateau/thermokarst lake complexes. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.116, G03035 (2011) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Walter, K. M., Zimov, S. A., Chanton, J. P., Verbyla, D. & Chapin, F. S., III Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature443, 71–75 (2006) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Jones, M. C., Grosse, G., Jones, B. M. & Walter Anthony, K. Peat accumulation in drained thermokarst lake basins in continuous, ice-rich permafrost, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. J. Geophys. Res.117, G00M07 (2012) ADS Google Scholar
Zona, D. et al. Increased CO2 loss from vegetated drained lake tundra ecosystems due to flooding. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles26, GB2004 (2012) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Olefeldt, D. & Roulet, N. T. Permafrost conditions in peatlands regulate magnitude, timing, and chemical composition of catchment dissolved organic carbon export. Glob. Change Biol.20, 3122–3136 (2014) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Feng, X. et al. Differential mobilization of terrestrial carbon pools in Eurasian Arctic river basins. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA110, 14168–14173 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Vonk, J. E. & Gustafsson, O. Permafrost-carbon complexities. Nature Geosci.6, 675–676 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Vonk, J. E. et al. High biolability of ancient permafrost carbon upon thaw. Geophys. Res. Lett.40, 2689–2693 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Cory, R. M., Crump, B. C., Dobkowski, J. A. & Kling, G. W. Surface exposure to sunlight stimulates CO2 release from permafrost soil carbon in the Arctic. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA110, 3429–3434 (2013) ArticleADSPubMed Google Scholar
Vonk, J. E. et al. Activation of old carbon by erosion of coastal and subsea permafrost in Arctic Siberia. Nature489, 137–140 (2012) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Shakhova, N. et al. Geochemical and geophysical evidence of methane release over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans115, C08007 (2010) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Shakhova, N. et al. Ebullition and storm-induced methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Nature Geosci.7, 64–70 (2014)Quantitative assessment of bubble-induced CH4emissions resulting from subsea permafrost degradation in the coastal area. ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Dmitrenko, I. A. et al. Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost instability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans116, C10027 (2011) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Parmentier, F.-J. W. et al. The impact of lower sea-ice extent on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange. Nature Clim. Change3, 195–202 (2013) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Parmentier, F.-J. W. & Christensen, T. R. Arctic: speed of methane release. Nature500, 529–529 (2013) ArticleADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2013. Earth Syst. Sci. Data6, 235–263 (2014) ArticleADS Google Scholar
Avis, C. A., Weaver, A. J. & Meissner, K. J. Reduction in areal extent of high-latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw. Nature Geosci.4, 444–448 (2011) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Todd-Brown, K. E. O. et al. Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations. Biogeosciences10, 1717–1736 (2013) ArticleADS Google Scholar
McGuire, A. D. et al. An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions. Biogeosciences9, 3185–3204 (2012) ArticleADSCAS Google Scholar
Belshe, E. F., Schuur, E. A. G. & Bolker, B. M. Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2 sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle. Ecol. Lett.16, 1307–1315 (2013) ArticleCASPubMed Google Scholar
Ueyama, M. et al. Upscaling terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Alaska with satellite remote sensing and support vector regression. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.118, 1266–1281 (2013) ArticleCAS Google Scholar
Schaefer, K., Lantuit, H., Romanovsky, V. E. & Schuur, E. A. G. Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (United Nations Environment Program, 2012) Google Scholar
IPCC in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon, S. D. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)