Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate (original) (raw)

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 472–475 (2011) Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Humans have modified the Earth’s climate through emissions of greenhouse gases and through land-use and land-cover change (LULCC)1. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the mid-latitudes more than the tropics, in part owing to a reduced snow–albedo feedback as snow cover decreases2. Higher concentration of carbon dioxide also increases precipitation in many regions1, as a result of an intensification of the hydrological cycle2. The biophysical effects of LULCC since pre-industrial times have probably cooled temperate and boreal regions and warmed some tropical regions3. Here we use a climate model to show that how snow and rainfall change under increased greenhouse gases dominates how LULCC affects regional temperature. Increased greenhouse-gas-driven changes in snow and rainfall affect the snow–albedo feedback and the supply of water, which in turn limits evaporation. These changes largely control the net impact of LULCC on regional climate. Our results show that capturing whether future biophysical changes due to LULCC warm or cool a specific region therefore requires an accurate simulation of changes in snow cover and rainfall geographically coincident with regions of LULCC. This is a challenge to current climate models, but also provides potential for further improving detection and attribution methods.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 12 print issues and online access

$259.00 per year

only $21.58 per issue

Buy this article

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Additional access options:

Figure 1: The change in the impact of LULCC on surface air temperature due to increased CO2.

The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Figure 2: How LULCC affects key near-surface and surface variables at 1×CO2 and 2×CO2.

The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
  2. Meehl, G. A. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 747–845 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    Google Scholar
  3. Lawrence, P. J. & Chase, T. N. Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 2066–2087 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  4. Bonan, G. B. Effects of land use on the climate of the United States. Climatic Change 37, 449–486 (1997).
    Google Scholar
  5. Feddema, J. J. et al. The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science 310, 1674–1678 (2005).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  6. Findell, K. L., Pitman, A. J., England, M. H. & Pegion, P. J. Regional and global impacts of land cover change and sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Clim. 22, 3248–3269 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  7. Pitman, A. J. et al. Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L14814 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  8. Hasler, N., Werth, D. & Avissar, R. Effects of tropical deforestation on global hydroclimate: A multimodel ensemble analysis. J. Clim. 22, 1124–1141 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  9. Forster, P. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 129–234 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    Google Scholar
  10. Betts, R. A. Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature 408, 187–190 (2000).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  11. Wang, Y-P. et al. Diagnosing errors in a land surface model (CABLE) in the time and frequency domain. J. Geophys. Res. 116, G01034 (2011).
    Google Scholar
  12. Abramowitz, G., Leuning, R., Clark, M. & Pitman, A. J. Evaluating the performance of land surface models. J. Clim. 21, 5468–5481 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
  13. Mao, J. et al. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model v1.0 coupled to the CABLE land surface scheme v1.4b: valuation of the control climatology. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 4, 1611–1642 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  14. Phipps, S. J. et al. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 - Part 1: Description and evaluation. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 1–27 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  15. Seneviratne, S. I. et al. Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Sci. Rev. 99, 125–161 (2010).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  16. Teuling, A. J. et al. Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves. Nature Geosci. 3, 722–727 (2010).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  17. Arora, V. K. & Montenegro, A. Small temperature benefits provided by realistic afforestation efforts. Nature Geosci. 4, 514–518 (2011).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  18. Bonfils, C., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Guiot, J. & Bartlein, P. Some mechanisms of mid-Holocene climate change in Europe, inferred from comparing PMIP models to data. Clim. Dyn. 23, 79–98 (2004).
    Article Google Scholar
  19. Christidis, N. et al. Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett 32, L20716 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  20. Boville, B.A. Sensitivity of simulated climate to model resolution. J. Clim. 4, 469–485 (1991).
    Article Google Scholar
  21. Davin, E. L. & de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. Climatic impact of global-scale deforestation: Radiative versus nonradiative processes. J. Clim. 23, 97–112 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  22. Sitch, S. et al. Impacts of future land cover changes on atmospheric CO2 and climate. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 19, GB2013 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  23. Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J. A. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 13, 997–1027 (1999).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  24. Hurtt, G. C. et al. The underpinnings of land-use history: Three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 1208–1229 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
  25. Findell, K. R., Knutson, T. R. & Milly, P. C. D. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation. J. Clim. 19, 2835–2850 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of the Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
    A. J. Pitman, F. B. Avila, G. Abramowitz & S. J. Phipps
  2. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
    Y. P. Wang
  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France
    N. de Noblet-Ducoudré

Authors

  1. A. J. Pitman
  2. F. B. Avila
  3. G. Abramowitz
  4. Y. P. Wang
  5. S. J. Phipps
  6. N. de Noblet-Ducoudré

Contributions

A.J.P. designed the study. F.B.A. conducted the experiments and managed the data. S.J.P. contributed the Mk3L model. A.J.P., F.B.A., G.A., Y.P.W. S.J.P. and N. de N-D. assisted with the analysis and wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toA. J. Pitman.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pitman, A., Avila, F., Abramowitz, G. et al. Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate.Nature Clim Change 1, 472–475 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1294

Download citation

This article is cited by