Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability (original) (raw)

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 167–171 (2012) Cite this article

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Abstract

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution humans have released ∼500 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere through fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes1,[2](/articles/nclimate1372#ref-CR2 "Boden, T., Marland, G. & Andres, R. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO 2 Emissions Tech. Rep. http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/00001V2010

             (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, 2010)."). About 30% has been taken up by the oceans[3](/articles/nclimate1372#ref-CR3 "Canadell, J. et al. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 18866–18870 (2007)."). The oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide leads to changes in marine carbonate chemistry resulting in a decrease of seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration, commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is considered a major threat to calcifying organisms[4](/articles/nclimate1372#ref-CR4 "Raven, J. et al. Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 60, Tech. Rep. (The Royal Society, 2005)."),[5](/articles/nclimate1372#ref-CR5 "Kleypas, J. A. et al. Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers: A Guide for Future Research. Tech. Rep. (NSF, NOAA, and the US Geological Survey, 2006)."),[6](/articles/nclimate1372#ref-CR6 "National Research Council Report Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean 152 (National Academy of Science, 2010)."). Detecting its magnitude and impacts on regional scales requires accurate knowledge of the level of natural variability of surface ocean carbonate ion concentrations on seasonal to annual timescales and beyond. Ocean observations are severely limited with respect to providing reliable estimates of the signal-to-noise ratio of human-induced trends in carbonate chemistry against natural factors. Using three Earth system models we show that the current anthropogenic trend in ocean acidification already exceeds the level of natural variability by up to 30 times on regional scales. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the current rates of ocean acidification at monitoring sites in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans exceed those experienced during the last glacial termination by two orders of magnitude.

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Figure 1: Regional signal-to-noise ratio of .

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Figure 2: First year of detectability of anthropogenic trend.

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Figure 3: Current trends in the context of the Last Glacial Termination.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by The Nature Conservancy (www.nature.org) and National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #0902133. AT is supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of the International Pacific Research Center and NSF grant #0902551. We thank S. Lorenz for conducting the MPI-ESM experiments. This is International Pacific Research Center contribution number 829.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), SOEST, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA
    T. Friedrich, A. Timmermann & M. Heinemann
  2. Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine Science and Technology, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan
    A. Abe-Ouchi & M. O. Chikamoto
  3. Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, St George’s, GE 01, Bermuda
    N. R. Bates
  4. Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA
    M. J. Church
  5. Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana 59717, USA
    J. E. Dore
  6. NOAA AOML, Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida 33149, USA
    D. K. Gledhill
  7. Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria 35.017, Spain
    M. González-Dávila & J. M. Santana-Casiano
  8. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 20146, Germany
    T. Ilyina & J. H. Jungclaus
  9. The Nature Conservancy, Hawai’i Field Office, Honolulu, Hawaii 96817, USA
    E. McLeod
  10. Département Astrophysique, Géophysique et Océanographie, Université de Liège, Liège B-4000, Belgium
    A. Mouchet

Authors

  1. T. Friedrich
  2. A. Timmermann
  3. A. Abe-Ouchi
  4. N. R. Bates
  5. M. O. Chikamoto
  6. M. J. Church
  7. J. E. Dore
  8. D. K. Gledhill
  9. M. González-Dávila
  10. M. Heinemann
  11. T. Ilyina
  12. J. H. Jungclaus
  13. E. McLeod
  14. A. Mouchet
  15. J. M. Santana-Casiano

Contributions

The paper was written by T.F. and A.T. Data analysis and interpretation were carried out by T.F., A.T., M.H., D.K.G., N.R.B., M.J.C., J.E.D., M.G-D., J.M.S-C., T.I., J.H.J., M.O.C., E.M. and A.M. Observational data were provided by N.R.B., M.J.C., J.E.D., M.G-D. and J.M.S-C. Data for the Caribbean region were calculated by D.K.G. Last Glacial Maximum modelling data were provided by T.F., M.O.C., A.A-O. and A.M.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence toT. Friedrich or A. Timmermann.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Abe-Ouchi, A. et al. Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability.Nature Clim Change 2, 167–171 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1372

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