Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change (original) (raw)

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1. Passed away in 2011 while this work was being carried out

Authors and Affiliations

1. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA
   S. Asseng, J. W. Jones & D. Cammarano
2. Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, 53115, Germany
   F. Ewert & C. Angulo
3. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA
   C. Rosenzweig, A. C. Ruane & R. Goldberg
4. National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Ames, Iowa 50011, USA
   J. L. Hatfield
5. Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611-0500, USA
   K. J. Boote
6. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102, Australia
   P. J. Thorburn
7. Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-50100 Mikkeli, Finland
   R. P. Rötter & T. Palosuo
8. INRA, UMR0211 Agronomie, F-78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France
   N. Brisson
9. AgroParisTech, UMR0211 Agronomie, F-78 750 Thiverval-Grignon, France
   N. Brisson
10. Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 48823, USA
    B. Basso & I. Shcherbak
11. INRA, UMR1095 Genetic, Diversity and Ecophysiology of Cererals (GDEC), F-63 100 Clermont-Ferrand, France
    P. Martre
12. Blaise Pascal University, UMR1095 GDEC, F-63 170 Aubière, France
    P. Martre
13. CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, New Delhi 12, India
    P. K. Aggarwal
14. INRA, US1116 AgroClim, F-84 914 Avignon, France
    P. Bertuzzi & D. Ripoche
15. Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, D-85764, Germany
    C. Biernath & E. Priesack
16. Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
    A. J. Challinor
17. CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), A.A. 6713, Cali, Colombia
    A. J. Challinor
18. Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA), 39600 Muriedas, Spain
    J. Doltra
19. WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, University of Tübingen, 72074 Tübingen, Germany
    S. Gayler
20. Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E3, Canada
    R. Grant
21. IAEA, Vienna, Austria
    L. Heng
22. Agriculture Department, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
    J. Hooker
23. Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada
    L. A. Hunt
24. Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany
    J. Ingwersen & T. Streck
25. Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
    R. C. Izaurralde
26. Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
    K. C. Kersebaum & C. Nendel
27. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
    C. Müller & K. Waha
28. Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi 110 012, India
    S. Naresh Kumar
29. Department of Primary Industries, Landscape and Water Sciences, Horsham 3400, Australia
    G. O’Leary
30. Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, 8830, Tjele, Denmark
    J. E. Olesen
31. NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
    T. M. Osborne
32. Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, UK
    M. A. Semenov & P. Stratonovitch
33. FAO, Rome, Italy
    P. Steduto
34. Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington 99164-6120, USA
    C. Stöckle
35. Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
    I. Supit & J. Wolf
36. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China
    F. Tao
37. Institute for Climate and Water, INTA-CIRN, 1712 Castelar, Argentina
    M. Travasso
38. INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR), 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France
    D. Wallach
39. Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona 85138, USA
    J. W. White
40. Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas 76502, USA
    J. R. Williams

Authors

1. S. Asseng
2. F. Ewert
3. C. Rosenzweig
4. J. W. Jones
5. J. L. Hatfield
6. A. C. Ruane
7. K. J. Boote
8. P. J. Thorburn
9. R. P. Rötter
10. D. Cammarano
11. N. Brisson
12. B. Basso
13. P. Martre
14. P. K. Aggarwal
15. C. Angulo
16. P. Bertuzzi
17. C. Biernath
18. A. J. Challinor
19. J. Doltra
20. S. Gayler
21. R. Goldberg
22. R. Grant
23. L. Heng
24. J. Hooker
25. L. A. Hunt
26. J. Ingwersen
27. R. C. Izaurralde
28. K. C. Kersebaum
29. C. Müller
30. S. Naresh Kumar
31. C. Nendel
32. G. O’Leary
33. J. E. Olesen
34. T. M. Osborne
35. T. Palosuo
36. E. Priesack
37. D. Ripoche
38. M. A. Semenov
39. I. Shcherbak
40. P. Steduto
41. C. Stöckle
42. P. Stratonovitch
43. T. Streck
44. I. Supit
45. F. Tao
46. M. Travasso
47. K. Waha
48. D. Wallach
49. J. W. White
50. J. R. Williams
51. J. Wolf

Contributions

S.A., F.E., C.R., J.W.J., K.J.B. and J.L.H. motivated the study; S.A. and F.E. coordinated the study; S.A., F.E., D.W., P.M., D.C. and A.C.R. analysed data; D.C., A.C.R., K.J.B., P.J.T., R.P.R., N.B., B.B., D.R., P.B., P.S., L.H., M.A.S., P.S., C.S., G.O.L., P.K.A., S.N.K., R.C.I., J.W.W., L.A.H., R.G., K.C.K., T.P., J.H., T.O., J.W., I.S., J.E.O., J.D., C.N., S.G., J.I., E.P., T.S., F.T., C.M., K.W., R.G., C.A., I.S., C.B., J.R.W. and A.J.C. carried out crop model simulations and discussed the results; M.T. and S.N.K., provided experimental data; S.A., F.E., C.R. and J.W.J. wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toS. Asseng.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C. et al. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change.Nature Clim Change 3, 827–832 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916

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• Received: 14 October 2012
• Accepted: 02 May 2013
• Published: 09 June 2013
• Issue date: September 2013
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916