Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production (original) (raw)

References

  1. The State of Food Insecurity in The World: How Does International Price Volatility Affect Domestic Economies and Food Security? (FAO, 2011).
  2. Funk, C. C. & Brown, M. E. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security. Food Sec. 1, 271–289 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  3. Report of the FAO Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050 (FAO, 2009).
  4. IPCC Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).
  5. Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (FAO, 2013); available at http://www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm.
  6. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS, 2012); available at http://www.fews.net/Pages/default.aspx.
  7. Ravallion, M., Chen, S. & Sangraula, P. New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty (World Bank, 2007).
    Google Scholar
  8. Ruel, M. T., Garrett, J. L., Hawkes, C. & Cohen, M. J. The food, fuel, and financial crises affect the urban and rural poor disproportionately: A review of the evidence. J. Nutr. 140, 170S–176S (2010).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  9. Rosegrant, M. W., Msangi, S., Sulser, T. & Valmonte-Santos, R. Biofuels and the Global Food Balance. 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2006).
    Google Scholar
  10. Headey, D. & Fan, S. Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices. Agric. Econ. 39, 375–391 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
  11. Stringer, L. C. et al. Adaptations to climate change, drought and desertification: Local insights to enhance policy in southern Africa. Environ. Sci. Policy 12, 748–765 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  12. Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C. & Foley, J. A. Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Commun. 3, 1293 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
  13. Hansen, J. W., Mason, S. J., Sun, L. & Tall, A. Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Exp. Agric. 47, 205–240 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  14. Lenton, T. M. What early warning systems are there for environmental shocks? Environ. Sci. Policy 24, S60–S75 (2012).
    Google Scholar
  15. Cane, M. A., Eshel, G. & Buckland, R. W. Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature 370, 204–205 (1994).
    Article Google Scholar
  16. Hansen, J. W., Challinor, A. J., Ines, A. V. M., Wheeler, T. R. & Moron, V. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: Advances and challenges. Clim. Res. 33, 27–41 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
  17. World Water Assessment Programme The United Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2012).
  18. Hawkins, E. et al. Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 937–947 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
  19. Wilks, D. S. & Godfrey, C. M. Diagnostic verification of the IRI net assessment forecasts, 1997–2000. J. Clim. 15, 1369–1377 (2002).
    Article Google Scholar
  20. Luo, J-J., Masson, S., Behera, S., Shingu, S. & Yamagata, T. Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J. Clim. 18, 4474–4497 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  21. Sacks, W. J., Deryng, D., Foley, J. A. & Ramankutty, N. Crop planting dates: An analysis of global patterns. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19, 607–620 (2010).
    Google Scholar
  22. Funk, C. New satellite observations and rainfall forecasts help provide earlier warning of drought in Africa. Earth Observer. 21, 23–27 (2009).
    Google Scholar
  23. Welton, G. The Impact of Russia’s 2010 Grain Export Ban (Oxfam, 2011); available at http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/rr-impact-russias-grain-export-ban-280611-en.pdf.
  24. Vogel, C. & O’Brien, K. Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Clim. Res. 33, 111–122 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
  25. Challinor, A. J., Ewert, F., Arnold, S., Simelton, E. & Fraser, E. Crops and climate change: Progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2775–2789 (2009).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  26. Iizumi, T., Yokozawa, M. & Nishimori, M. Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of a large-scale crop model for paddy rice: Application of a Bayesian approach. Agr. For. Meteorol. 149, 333–348 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  27. Easterling, W. E. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L. et al.) Ch. 5 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    Google Scholar
  28. Vermeulen, S. J. et al. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 8357–8362 (2013).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
  29. Onogi, K. et al. The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 85, 369–432 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar

Download references