Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty (original) (raw)

Nature Geoscience volume 5, pages 110–113 (2012) Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space1. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system2. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements3, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 12 print issues and online access

$259.00 per year

only $21.58 per issue

Buy this article

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Additional access options:

Figure 1: 0–700 m upper-ocean warming rates.

The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Figure 2: Variations in TOA radiation and ENSO during the past decade.

The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Figure 3: Comparison of net TOA flux and upper-ocean heating rates.

The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Hansen, J. et al. Earth’s energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431–1435 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  2. Trenberth, K. E. & Fasullo, J. T. Tracking earth’s energy. Science 328, 316–317 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  3. Lyman, J. M. et al. Robust warming of the global upper ocean. Nature 465, 334–337 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  4. Bindoff, N. L. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
    Google Scholar
  5. Wong, T. et al. Reexamination of the observed decadal variability of the Earth radiation budget using altitude-corrected ERBE/ERBS nonscanner WFOV data. J. Clim. 19, 4028–4040 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
  6. Minnis, P. et al. Radiative climate forcing by the Mount Pinatubo eruption. Science 259, 1411–1415 (1993).
    Article Google Scholar
  7. Soden, B. J. et al. Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. J. Clim. 21, 3504–3520 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
  8. Trenberth, K. E. & Fasullo, J. T. Tracking Earth’s energy: From El Niño to global warming. Surv. Geophys. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9150-2 (2011).
  9. Katsman, C. A. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Tracing the upper ocean’s “missing heat”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L14610 (2011).
    Google Scholar
  10. Meehl, G. A., Arbalster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change 1229, 360–364 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  11. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. & von Schuckmann, K. Earth’s energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 13421–13449 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  12. Boyer, T. P. et al. in NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66 (ed. Levitus, S.) (U.S. Gov. Printing Office, 2009) DVDs.
    Google Scholar
  13. Roemmich, D. et al. Argo: The challenge of continuing 10 years of progress. Oceanography 22, 46–55 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  14. Johnson, G. C. et al. Ocean heat content. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, S81–S84 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  15. von Schuckmann, K., Gaillard, F. & Le Traon, P.-Y. Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003–2008. J. Geophys. Res. 114, C09007 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  16. Wielicki, B. et al. Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES): An earth observing system experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 853–868 (1996).
    Article Google Scholar
  17. Kopp, G., Lawrence, G. & Rottman, G. The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science results. Sol. Phys. 230, 129–139 (2005).
    Article Google Scholar
  18. Loeb, N. G. et al. Multi-instrument comparison of top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation. J. Clim. 20, 575–591 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
  19. Loeb, N. G. et al. Toward optimal closure of the earth’s top-of-atmosphere radiation budget. J. Clim. 22, 748–766 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  20. Loeb, N. G. et al. Advances in understanding top-of-atmosphere radiation variability from satellite observations. Surv. Geophys. (in the press, 2011).
  21. Lyman, J. M. Estimating Global Energy Flow from the Global Upper Ocean. Surv. Geophys. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9167-6 (2011).
  22. Purkey, S. G. & Johnson, G. C. Warming of global abyssal and deep southern ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets. J. Clim. 23, 6336–6351 (2010).
    Article Google Scholar
  23. Palmer, M. D., McNeall, D. J. & Dunstone, N. J. Importance of the deep ocean for estimating decadal changes in Earth’s radiation balance. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13707 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  24. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J. & Berrisford, P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
  25. Meehl, G. A. et al. THE WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383–1394 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
  26. Lyman, J. M. & Johnson, G. C. Estimating annual global upper-ocean heat content anomalies despite irregular in situ ocean sampling. J. Clim. 21, 5629–5641 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
  27. Trenberth, K. E. An imperative for climate change planning: Tracking Earth’s global energy. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 1, 19–27 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
  28. Johnson, D. R. et al. in NODC Internal Report 20 (ed. Levitus, S.) (NOAA Printing Office, Available at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOD09/pr_wod09.html (2009).
  29. Levitus, S. et al. Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07608 (2009).
    Google Scholar
  30. Palmer, M. D., Haines, K., Tett, S. F. B. & Ansell, T. J. Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L23610 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the CERES science, algorithm, and data management teams and the NASA Science Mission Directorate for supporting this research. J.M.L. and G.C.J. were funded by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office and NOAA Research. We thank S. Good at the UK Met Office for providing OHCA data from the Hadley Centre.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. NASA Langley Research Center, 21 Langley Boulevard, Hampton, Virginia 23681, USA
    Norman G. Loeb, David R. Doelling & Takmeng Wong
  2. Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA
    John M. Lyman
  3. NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA
    John M. Lyman & Gregory C. Johnson
  4. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, PO Box 243, UK
    Richard P. Allan
  5. Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, Florida 33149, USA
    Brian J. Soden
  6. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109, USA
    Graeme L. Stephens

Authors

  1. Norman G. Loeb
  2. John M. Lyman
  3. Gregory C. Johnson
  4. Richard P. Allan
  5. David R. Doelling
  6. Takmeng Wong
  7. Brian J. Soden
  8. Graeme L. Stephens

Contributions

N.G.L. led the writing and analysis, with writing and analysis contributions from J.M.L., R.P.A., T.W. and B.J.S. and writing contributions from G.C.J.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toNorman G. Loeb.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Loeb, N., Lyman, J., Johnson, G. et al. Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty.Nature Geosci 5, 110–113 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1375

Download citation

This article is cited by