Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets (original) (raw)

References

1. Allen, M. R. et al. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 458, 1163–1166 (2009).
   Google Scholar
2. Matthews, H., Gillett, N., Stott, P. & Zickfeld, K. The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Nature 459, 829–832 (2009).
   Google Scholar
3. Meinshausen, M. et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature 458, 1158–1162 (2009).
   Article Google Scholar
4. Raupach, M. R. The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 31–49 (2013).
   Google Scholar
5. Raupach, M. R. et al. The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system. Tellus B 63, 145–164 (2011).
   Google Scholar
6. Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Matthews, H. & Weaver, A. Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 16129–16134 (2009).
   Google Scholar
7. Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Matthews, D. & Allen, M. R. Constraining the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions using CMIP5 simulations. J. Clim. 26, 6844–6858 (2013).
   Google Scholar
8. van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 15258–15262 (2008).
   Google Scholar
9. Matthews, H. D., Solomon, S. & Pierrehumbert, R. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 370, 4365–4379 (2012).
   Google Scholar
10. Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K. & Gillett, N. P. Is the climate response to CO2 emissions path dependent? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L05703 (2012).
    Google Scholar
11. Joos, F. et al. Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 2793–2825 (2013).
    Google Scholar
12. IPCC in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1–29 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
13. Maier-Reimer, E. & Hasselmann, K. Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean — an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model. Clim. Dynam. 2, 63–90 (1987).
    Google Scholar
14. Friedlingstein, P. et al. Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. J. Clim. 19, 3337–3353 (2006).
    Google Scholar
15. Caldeira, K. & Kasting, J. F. Insensitivity of global warming potentials to carbon-dioxide emission scenarios. Nature 366, 251–253 (1993).
    Google Scholar
16. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 12, 1029–1136 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    Google Scholar
17. Ciais, P. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 6, 465–570 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    Google Scholar
18. Knutti, R. & Hegerl, G. The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nature Geosci. 1, 735–743 (2008).
    Google Scholar
19. Gregory, J. M., Jones, C. D., Cadule, P. & Friedlingstein, P. Quantifying carbon cycle feedbacks. J. Clim. 22, 5232–5250 (2009).
    Google Scholar
20. Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 8, 659–740 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    Google Scholar
21. Bowerman, N. H. A. et al. The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals. Nature Clim. Change 3, 1021–1024 (2013).
    Google Scholar
22. Smith, S. M. et al. Equivalence of greenhouse-gas emissions for peak temperature limits. Nature Clim. Change 2, 535–538 (2012).
    Google Scholar
23. Pierrehumbert, R. T. Short-lived climate pollution. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet Sci. 42, 341–379 (2014).
    Google Scholar
24. Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 6 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
    Google Scholar
25. Rogelj, J. et al. Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways. Nature Clim. Change 4, 446–450 (2014).
    Google Scholar
26. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 12, 1029–1136 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
    Google Scholar
27. Anderson, K., Bows, A. & Mander, S. From long-term targets to cumulative emission pathways: Reframing UK climate policy. Energy Policy 36, 3714–3722 (2008).
    Google Scholar
28. Anderson, K. & Bows, A. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 20–44 (2011).
    Google Scholar
29. Allen, M. R. & Stocker, T. F. Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Clim. Change 4, 23–26 (2014).
    Google Scholar
30. Stocker, T. F. The closing door of climate targets. Science 339, 280–282 (2013).
    Google Scholar
31. Andres, R. J. et al. A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion. Biogeosciences 9, 1845–1871 (2012).
    Google Scholar
32. Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A. & Higdon, D. A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission. Tellus B 66, 23616 (2014).
    Google Scholar
33. Francey, R. J. et al. Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends. Nature Clim. Change 3, 520–524 (2013).
    Google Scholar
34. Raupach, M. R., Quéré, C. L., Peters, G. P. & Canadell, J. G. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nature Clim. Change 3, 603–604 (2013).
    Google Scholar
35. Francey, R. J. et al. Reply to 'Anthropogenic CO2 emissions'. Nature Clim. Change 3, 604–604 (2013).
    Google Scholar
36. Raupach, M. R. et al. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 10288–10293 (2007).
    Google Scholar
37. Pielke R. Jr The Climate Fix (Basic Books, 2010).
    Google Scholar
38. Le Quéré, C . et al. Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geosci. 2, 831–836 (2009).
    Google Scholar
39. Friedlingstein, P. et al. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geosci. 3, 811–812 (2010).
    Google Scholar
40. Peters, G. P. et al. Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Nature Clim. Change 2, 2–4 (2012).
    Google Scholar
41. Peters, G. P. et al. The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nature Clim. Change 3, 4–6 (2013).
    Google Scholar
42. Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2013. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 6, 235–263 (2014).
    Google Scholar
43. Davis, S. J. & Caldeira, K. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 5687–5692 (2010).
    Google Scholar
44. Peters, G. P., Minx, J. C., Weber, C. L. & Edenhofer, O. Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 8903–8908 (2011).
    Google Scholar
45. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14571
46. World Economic Outlook: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven (IMF, 2014); http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29
47. World Economic Outlook Update: An Uneven Global Recovery Continues (IMF, 2014); http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/02
48. Houghton, R. A. et al. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9, 5125–5142 (2012).
    Google Scholar
49. Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2014. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014 (2014).
50. Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T. & van der Werf, G. R. Analysis of daily, monthly, and annual burned area using the fourth-generation global fire emissions database (GFED4). J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 118, 317–328 (2013).
    Google Scholar
51. Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. S. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nature Clim. Change 2, 775–779 (2012).
    Google Scholar
52. Tebaldi, C. & Friedlingstein, P. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 17229–17234 (2013).
    Google Scholar
53. Ricke, K. L. & Caldeira, K. Natural climate variability and future climate policy. Nature Clim. Change 4, 333–338 (2014).
    Google Scholar
54. van Vuuren, D. P. et al. RCP3-PD: Exploring the possibilities to limit global mean temperature change to less than 2 °C. Climatic Change 109, 95–116 (2011).
    Google Scholar
55. Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E. & Mollersten, K. Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass - Costs and potential role in stabilizing the atmosphere. Climatic Change 74, 47–79 (2006).
    Google Scholar
56. Azar, C. et al. The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Climatic Change 100, 195–202 (2010).
    Google Scholar
57. Tavoni, M. & Socolow, R. Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions. Climatic Change 118, 1–14 (2013).
    Google Scholar
58. van Vuuren, D. P. & Riahi, K. The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets. Climatic Change 104, 793–801 (2011).
    Google Scholar
59. Boucher, O. et al. Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 024013 (2012).
    Google Scholar
60. Vichi, M., Navarra, A. & Fogli, P. G. Adjustment of the natural ocean carbon cycle to negative emission rates. Climatic Change 118, 105–118 (2013).
    Google Scholar
61. Long, C. & Ken, C. Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment. Environ. Res. Lett. 5, 024011 (2010).
    Google Scholar
62. Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., Reuster, L., Luderer, G. & Klein, D. Is atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation? Climatic Change 118, 45–57 (2013).
    Google Scholar
63. Kriegler, E. et al. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change 123, 353–367 (2013).
    Google Scholar
64. Luderer, G. et al. Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034033 (2013).
    Google Scholar
65. Riahi, K. et al. in Global Energy Assessment — Toward a Sustainable Future Ch. 17, 1203–1306 (Cambridge Univ. Press and IIASA, 2012).
    Google Scholar
66. Riahi, K. et al. Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technol. Forecas. Soc. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 (2013).
67. Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., O'Neill, B. C. & Riahi, K. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C. Nature Clim. Change 3, 405–412 (2013).
    Google Scholar
68. Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M. & Riahi, K. Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation. Nature 493, 79–83 (2013).
    Google Scholar
69. van Vliet, J. et al. Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2 °C warming. Climatic Change 113, 551–561 (2012).
    Google Scholar
70. World Energy Investment Outlook (IEA, 2014).
71. Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2014).
72. Höhne, N. et al. National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2 °C: comparison of studies. Climate Policy 12, 356–377 (2012).
    Google Scholar
73. The Emissions Gap Report 2012 (UNEP, 2012).
74. The Emissions Gap Report 2013 64 (UNEP, 2013).
75. Kriegler, E. et al. Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy. Technol. Forecas. Soc. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.021 (2014).
76. Kriegler, E. et al. What does the 2 °C target imply for a global climate agreement in 2020? The LIMITS study on Durban Platform scenarios. Clim. Change Econ. 4, 1340008 (2013).
    Google Scholar
77. Schaeffer, M. et al. Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios. Technol. Forecas. Soc. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013 (2013).
78. Johnson, N. et al. Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants. Technol. Forecas. Soc. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.028 (2014).
79. Luderer, G., Bertram, C., Calvin, K., De Cian, E. & Kriegler, E. Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways. Climatic Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0899-9 (2013).
80. Lenton, T. M. et al. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786–1793 (2008).
    Google Scholar
81. Matthews, H. D. & Caldeira, K. Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04705 (2008).
    Google Scholar
82. Raupach, M. R. et al. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2384 (2014).
83. Boden, T. A., Marland, G. & Andres, R. J. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions in Trends (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, 2013); http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.html
84. Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013 (BP, 2013).
85. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2013 (IEA, 2013).
86. AR5 Scenario Database (IIASA, 2014); https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB/

Download references