A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (original) (raw)

References

1. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
2. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. in Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al) (World Meterological Organization, 2018).
3. Winkler, H., Boyd, A., Torres Gunfaus, M. & Raubenheimer, S. Reconsidering development by reflecting on climate change. Int. Environ. Agreem. P. 15, 369–385 (2015).
   Article Google Scholar
4. Shukla, P. R., Dhar, S. & Mahapatra, D. Low-carbon society scenarios for India. Clim. Policy 8, 156–176 (2008).
   Article Google Scholar
5. Sachs, J. D., Schmidt-Traub, G. & Williams, J. Pathways to zero emissions. Nat. Geosci. 9, 799–801 (2016).
   Article CAS Google Scholar
6. Rockström, J. et al. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science 355, 1269–1271 (2017).
   Article Google Scholar
7. Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010).
   Article CAS Google Scholar
8. O’Neill, B. C. et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change 122, 387–400 (2014).
   Article Google Scholar
9. O’Neill, B. C. et al. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environ. Chang. 42, 169–180 (2017).
   Article Google Scholar
10. von Stechow, C. et al. 2 °C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall? Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 034022 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
11. Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
12. Calvin, K. et al. The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise. Energ. Econ. 34, S251–S260 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
13. van der Zwaan, B., Calvin, K. & Clarke, L. Climate mitigation in Latin America: implications for energy and land use. Preface to the special section on the findings of the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. Energy. Econ. 56, 495–498 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
14. Stern, N. Current climate models are grossly misleading. Nature 530, 407–409 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
15. Pindyck, R. S. Climate change policy: what do the models tell us? J. Econ. Lit. 51, 1–23 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
16. Chan, G., Carraro, C., Edenhofer, O., Kolstad, C. & Stavins, R. Reforming the IPCC’s assessment of climate change economics. Clim. Chang. Econ. 7, 1–16 (2016).
    Google Scholar
17. Geels, F. W., Berkhout, F. & van Vuuren, D. P. Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 576–583 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
18. Staub-Kaminski, I., Zimmer, A., Jakob, M. & Marschinski, R. Climate policy in practice: a typology of obstacles and implications for integrated assessment modeling. Clim. Chang. Econ. 5, 1440004 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
19. Ackerman, F., DeCanio, S. J., Howarth, R. B. & Sheeran, K. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Climatic Change 95, 297–315 (2009).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
20. Scrieciu, S. Ş., Barker, T. & Ackerman, F. Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis. Ecol. Econ. 85, 155–165 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
21. Van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °c target reduce the need for negative emission technologies. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 391–397 (2018).
    Article Google Scholar
22. Weyant, J. Some contributions of integrated assessment models of global climate change. Rev. Env. Econ. Policy 11, 115–137 (2017).
    Article Google Scholar
23. Pye, S. & Bataille, C. Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts. Clim. Policy 16, S27–S46 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
24. Chen, W., Wu, Z., He, J., Gao, P. & Xu, S. Carbon emission control strategies for China: a comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model. Energy 32, 59–72 (2007).
    Article Google Scholar
25. Jiang, K., Zhuang, X., Miao, R. & He, C. China’s role in attaining the global 2°C target. Clim. Policy 13, 55–69 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
26. Smith, J. B. et al. Development and climate change adaptation funding: coordination and integration. Clim. Policy 11, 37–41 (2011).
    Article Google Scholar
27. Shukla, P. R. & Chaturvedi, V. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: analysis of targets approach. Energ. Econ. 34, S487–S495 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
28. Fujino, J. et al. Back-casting analysis for 70% emission reduction in Japan by 2050. Clim. Policy 8, 108–124 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
29. Grottera, C., Pereira, A. O. & La Rovere, E. L. Impacts of carbon pricing on income inequality in Brazil. Clim. Dev. 5529, 1–14 (2015).
    Google Scholar
30. La Rovere, E. L., Burle Dubeux, C., Pereira, A. O. & Wills, W. Brazil beyond 2020: from deforestation to the energy challenge. Clim. Policy 13, 70–86 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
31. La Rovere, E. L., Pereira, A. O., Dubeux, C. B. S. & Wills, W. Climate Change mitigation actions in Brazil. Clim. Dev. 6, 25–33 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
32. Zevallos, P., Takahashi, T. P., Cigaran, M. P. & Coetzee, K. A case study of Peru’s efficient lighting nationally appropriate mitigation action. Clim. Dev. 6, 43–48 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
33. Delgado, R., Cadena, A. I., Espinosa, M., Peña, C. & Salazar, M. A case study on Colombian mitigation actions. Clim. Dev. 6, 12–24 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
34. Sanhueza, J. E. & Ladrón de Guevara, F. A. A case study of Chilean mitigation actions. Clim. Dev. 6, 34–42 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
35. Winkler, H. Long Term Mitigation Scenarios. (Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, 2007).
    Google Scholar
36. Tyler, E., Boyd, A. S., Coetzee, K. & Winkler, H. A case study of South African mitigation actions (for the special issue on mitigation actions in five developing countries). Clim. Dev. 6, 49–58 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
37. Mathy, S., Fink, M. & Bibas, R. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France. Energ. Policy 77, 176–190 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
38. Schmid, E. & Knopf, B. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: a participatory approach. Energ. Policy 51, 662–672 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
39. Strachan, N., Pye, S. & Kannan, R. The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy. Energ. Policy 37, 850–860 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
40. Usher, W. & Strachan, N. Critical mid-term uncertainties in long-term decarbonisation pathways. Energ. Policy 41, 433–444 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
41. Pye, S., Sabio, N. & Strachan, N. An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways. Energ. Policy 87, 673–684 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
42. Chiodi, A. et al. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system. Energ. Policy 53, 169–189 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
43. Samadi, S., Terrapon-Pfaff, J., Lechtenböhmer, S. & Knoop, K. Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies for achieving the 1.5 °C target – insights from a comparison of German bottom-up energy scenarios. Carbon Manag. 3004, 1–14 (2018).
    Google Scholar
44. Williams, J. H. et al. The technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: the pivotal role of electricity. Science 335, 53–9 (2012).
    Article CAS Google Scholar
45. McCollum, D., Yang, C., Yeh, S. & Ogden, J. Deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for California - Strategic implications from the CA-TIMES energy-economic systems model. Energy Strateg. Rev. 1, 19–32 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
46. Paltsev, S., Reilly, J. M., Jacoby, H. D. & Morris, J. F. The cost of climate policy in the United States. Energ. Econ. 31, S235–S243 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
47. Ross, M. T., Fawcett, A. A. & Clapp, C. S. U. S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: transition scenarios in ADAGE. Energ. Econ. 31, S212–S222 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
48. Tuladhar, S. D., Yuan, M., Bernstein, P., Montgomery, W. D. & Smith, A. A top-down bottom-up modeling approach to climate change policy analysis. Energ. Econ. 31, S223–S234 (2009).
    Article Google Scholar
49. Bataille, C., Tu, J. J. & Jaccard, M. Permit sellers, permit buyers: China and Canada’s roles in a global low-carbon society. Clim. Policy 8, S93–S107 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
50. Garibaldi, J. A. et al. Comparative analysis of five case studies: commonalities and differences in approaches to mitigation actions in five developing countries. Clim. Dev. 6, 59–70 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
51. Strachan, N., Foxon, T. & Fujino, J. Low-carbon society (LCS) modelling. Clim. Policy 8, 3–4 (2008).
    Article Google Scholar
52. Kainuma, M., Shukla, P. R. & Jiang, K. Framing and modeling of a low carbon society: an overview. Energ. Econ. 34, S316–S324 (2012).
    Article Google Scholar
53. Pye, S. et al. Exploring national decarbonization pathways and global energy trade flows: a multi-scale analysis. Clim. Policy 16, 1–18 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
54. Deep Carbonization Pathways Project Pathways To Deep Decarbonization - 2015 Synthesis Report (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
55. Bataille, C., Waisman, H., Colombier, M., Segafredo, L. & Williams, J. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP): insights and emerging issues. Clim. Policy 16, S1–S6 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
56. Bataille, C. et al. The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy. Clim. Policy 16, 7–26 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
57. Argyriou, M. et al. The impact of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) on domestic decision-making processes – Lessons from three countries (DDPP, IDDRI, 2016).
58. Bataille, C. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (Long Term Strategies, World Resources Institute, 2018).
59. Cherp, A., Vinichenko, V., Jewell, J., Brutschin, E. & Sovacool, B. Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework. Energ. Res. Soc. Sci. 37, 175–190 (2018).
    Article Google Scholar
60. Davis, S. J. et al. Net-zero emissions energy systems. Science 360, eaas9793 (2018).
    Article Google Scholar
61. Lempert, R. J. Shaping the next one hundred years: new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 71, 305–307 (2003).
    Google Scholar
62. Morgon, G. & Henrion, M. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing With Uncertainty In Quantiative Risk and Policy Analysis (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990).
63. Mathy, S., Criqui, P., Knoop, K., Fischedick, M. & Samadi, S. Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways. Clim. Policy 16, S47–S62 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
64. Lempert, R. J. et al. A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Manag. Sci. 52, 514–528 (2006).
    Article Google Scholar
65. Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E. & ter Maat, J. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob. Env. Change 23, 485–498 (2013).
    Article Google Scholar
66. Maier, H. R. et al. An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: how do they fit together? Environ. Modell. Softw. 81, 154–164 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
67. Bataille, C., Sawyer, D. & Melton, N. Pathways to deep decarbonization in Canada (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
68. Altieri, K. et al. Pathways to deep decarbonization in South Africa (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
69. Virdis, M.-R. et al. Pathways to deep decarbonization in Italy (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
70. Shukla, P., Dhar, S., Pathak, M., Mahadevia, D. & Garg, A. Pathways to deep decarbonization in India (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
71. Criqui, P., Mathy, S. & Hourcade, J.-C. Pathways to deep decarbonization in France (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
72. Kainuma, M., Masui, T., Oshiro, K. & Hibino, G. Pathways to deep decarbonization in Japan (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
73. Hillebrandt, K., Samadi, S. & Fischedick, M. Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
74. Liu, Q. et al. Pathways to deep decarbonization in China (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
75. Pye, S., Anandarajah, G., Fais, B., McGlade, C. & Strachan, N. Pathways to deep decarbonization in the United Kingdom (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
76. Pfenninger, S., Hawkes, A. & Keirstead, J. Energy systems modelling for twenty-first century energy challenges. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 33, 74–86 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
77. Altieri, K. E. et al. Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa. Clim. Policy 16, 78–91 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
78. Oshiro, K., Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan. Clim. Policy 16, S63–S77 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
79. Denis, A. et al. Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in 2050 – How Australia Can Prosper in a Low Carbon World (SDSN & IDDRI, 2014); http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/AU_DDPP_Report_Final.pdf.
80. La Rovere, E., Gesteira, C., Grottera, C. & Wills, W. Pathways to deep decarbonization in Brazil (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015).
81. Williams, J. et al. Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States (SDSN & IDDRI, 2014).
82. Denis-Ryan, A., Bataille, C. & Jotzo, F. Managing carbon-intensive materials in a decarbonizing world without a global price on carbon. Clim. Policy 16, S110–S128 (2016).
    Article Google Scholar
83. Bataille, C. et al. A review of technology and policy deep decarbonization pathway options for making energy intensive industry production consistent with the Paris Agreement. J. Clean. Prod. 187, 960–973 (2018).
    Article Google Scholar
84. Bruckner, T. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (Edenhofer, O. et al.) 511–597 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
85. McDowall, W. Exploring possible transition pathways for hydrogen energy: a hybrid approach using socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. Futures 63, 1–14 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
86. Trutnevyte, E. et al. Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 89, 26–42 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
87. Robiou Du Pont, Y. et al. Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 38–43 (2017).
    Article Google Scholar
88. Kartha, S. et al. Cascading biases against poorer countries. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 348–349 (2018).
    Article Google Scholar
89. Zhang, Y. & Shi, H.-L. From burden-sharing to opportunity-sharing: unlocking the climate negotiations. Clim. Policy 14, 63–81 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
90. Winkler, H. & Rajamani, L. CBDR & RC in a regime applicable to all. Clim. Policy 14, 102–121 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
91. Raupach, M. R. et al. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 4, (2014).
92. Pan, X., Elzen, M., den, Höhne, N., Teng, F. & Wang, L. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals. Environ. Sci. Pol. 74, 49–56 (2017).
    Article Google Scholar
93. Höhne, N., den Elzen, M. & Escalante, D. Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Clim. Policy 14, 122–147 (2014).
    Article Google Scholar
94. UNFCC. Pathways Initiative (2019); http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/high-level-climate-champions-launch-2050-pathways-platform/
95. Boer, R. et al. Pathways to deep decarbonizing agriculture, forest and other land-uses sector in Indonesia (DDPP. 2016).
96. Rosenbloom, D. Pathways: An emerging concept for the theory and governance of low-carbon transitions. Global Environ. Chang. 43, 37–50 (2017).
    Article Google Scholar
97. Turnheim, B. et al. Evaluating sustainability transitions pathways: bridging analytical approaches to address governance challenges. Global Environ. Chang. 35, 239–253 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar
98. Fortes, P., Alvarenga, A., Seixas, J. & Rodrigues, S. Long-term energy scenarios: Bridging the gap between socio-economic storylines and energy modelling. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 91, 161–178 (2015).
    Article Google Scholar

Download references