Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat (original) (raw)
References
Zemp, M. et al. Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century. J. Glaciol.61, 745–762 (2015). Article Google Scholar
Roe, G. H., Baker, M. B. & Herla, F. Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change. Nat. Geosci.10, 95–99 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Hock, R. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 131–202 (WMO, 2019).
Dussaillant, I. et al. Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes. Nat. Geosci.12, 802–808 (2019). Article Google Scholar
Jóhannesson, T., Raymond, C. & Waddington, E. Time-scale for adjustment of glaciers to changes in mass balance. J. Glaciol.35, 355–369 (1989). Article Google Scholar
Roe, G. H. & O’Neal, M. A. The response of glaciers to intrinsic climate variability: observations and models of late-Holocene variations in the Pacific Northwest. J. Glaciol.55, 839–854 (2009). Article Google Scholar
Oerlemans, J. Holocene glacier fluctuations: is the current rate of retreat exceptional? Ann. Glaciol.31, 39–44 (2000). Article Google Scholar
Sagredo, E. A. & Lowell, T. V. Climatology of Andean glaciers: a framework to understand glacier response to climate change. Glob. Planet. Change86–87, 101–109 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Harrison, S. et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods. Cryosphere12, 1195–1209 (2018). Article Google Scholar
Schwanghart, W., Worni, R., Huggel, C., Stoffel, M. & Korup, O. Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy–water nexus: estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods. Environ. Res. Lett.11, 074005 (2016). Article Google Scholar
Emmer, A. & Vilímek, V. Review article: lake and breach hazard assessment for moraine-dammed lakes: an example from the Cordillera Blanca (Peru). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.13, 1551–1565 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Somos-Valenzuela, M. A., Chisolm, R. E., Rivas, D. S., Portocarrero, C. & McKinney, D. C. Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.20, 2519–2543 (2016). Article Google Scholar
Rivas, D. S., Somos-Valenzuela, M. A., Hodges, B. R. & McKinney, D. C. Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.15, 1163–1179 (2015). Article Google Scholar
Lliboutry, L., Morales Arnao, B., Pautre, A. & Schneider, B. Glaciological problems set by the control of dangerous lakes in Cordillera Blanca, Peru. I. Historical failures of morainic dams, their causes and prevention. J. Glaciol.18, 239–254 (1977). Article Google Scholar
Emmer, A. Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Quat. Sci. Rev.177, 220–234 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Portocarrero Rodríguez, C. A. The Glacial Lake Handbook: Reducing Risk from Dangerous Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (USAID, 2014); https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAA087.pdf
Drenkhan, F., Huggel, C., Guardamino, L. & Haeberli, W. Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: the example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin. Sci. Total Environ.665, 465–483 (2019). Article Google Scholar
Vilímek, V., Zapata, M. L., Klimeš, J., Patzelt, Z. & Santillán, N. Influence of glacial retreat on natural hazards of the Palcacocha Lake area, Peru. Landslides2, 107–115 (2005). Article Google Scholar
Frey, H. et al. Multi-source glacial lake outburst flood hazard assessment and mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Front. Earth Sci.6, 210 (2018). Article Google Scholar
Rabatel, A. et al. Current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change. Cryosphere7, 81–102 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Wegner, S. A. Lo Que El Agua Se Llevó: Consecuencias y Lecciones del Aluvión de Huaraz de 1941 Tecnica 7 (Perú Ministerio del Ambiente, 2014).
Huggel, C. et al. Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.20, 2175–2193 (2020). Article Google Scholar
Cochachin Rapre, A. & Salazar Checa, C. Batimetría de la Laguna Palcacocha (Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego, 2016); https://go.nature.com/3c4jpwC
Haustein, K. et al. A limited role for unforced internal variability in twentieth-century warming. J. Clim.32, 4893–4917 (2019). Article Google Scholar
Haustein, K. et al. A real-time Global Warming Index. Sci. Rep.7, 15417 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Allen, M. R. et al. in Special Report onGlobal Warming of 1.5°C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 47–92 (WMO, 2018).
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.117, D08101 (2012). Article Google Scholar
Cowtan, K. & Way, R. G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.140, 1935–1944 (2014). Article Google Scholar
Gurgiser, W., Marzeion, B., Nicholson, L., Ortner, M. & Kaser, G. Modeling energy and mass balance of Shallap Glacier, Peru. Cryosphere7, 1787–1802 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Meier, M. F. & Tangborn, W. V. Net budget and flow of South Cascade Glacier, Washington. J. Glaciol.5, 547–566 (1965). Article Google Scholar
Kaser, G., Fountain, A. & Jansson, P. A Manual for Monitoring the Mass Balance of Mountain Glaciers with Particular Attention to Low Latitude Characteristics (UNESCO, 2003).
Sagredo, E. A., Rupper, S. & Lowell, T. V. Sensitivities of the equilibrium line altitude to temperature and precipitation changes along the Andes. Quat. Res.81, 355–366 (2014). Article Google Scholar
Malone, A. G. O., Doughty, A. M. & Macayeal, D. R. Interannual climate variability helps define the mean state of glaciers. J. Glaciol.65, 508–517 (2019). Article Google Scholar
Vuille, M. et al. Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: past, present and future. Earth Sci. Rev.89, 79–96 (2008). Article Google Scholar
Kaser, G. Glacier–climate interaction at low latitudes. J. Glaciol.47, 195–204 (2001). Article Google Scholar
Stuart-Smith, R. F. Melt Rate of Palcaraju Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru: Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence and Proposed Methodology for Calculating Adaptation Cost. FHS dissertation (Univ. Oxford, 2019).
Rohde, R. et al. A new estimate of the average earth surface land temperature spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinfor. Geostat. 1, https://doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101 (2013).
Poli, P. et al. ERA-20C: an atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century. J. Clim.29, 4083–4097 (2016). Article Google Scholar
Oerlemans, J. Glaciology and Quaternary Geology Vol. 6, 353–371 (Springer, 1989).
Medwedeff, W. G. & Roe, G. H. Trends and variability in the global dataset of glacier mass balance. Clim. Dyn.48, 3085–3097 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Hannart, A., Pearl, J., Otto, F. E. L., Naveau, P. & Ghil, M. Causal counterfactual theory for the attribution of weather and climate-related events. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.97, 99–110 (2016). Article Google Scholar
Jomelli, V. et al. Fluctuations of glaciers in the tropical Andes over the last millennium and palaeoclimatic implications: a review. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol.281, 269–282 (2009). Article Google Scholar
Georges, C. 20th-century glacier fluctuations in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res.36, 100–107 (2004). Article Google Scholar
Kaser, G. & Georges, C. Changes of the equilibrium-line altitude in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Peru, 1930–50, and their spatial variations. Ann. Glaciol.24, 344–349 (1997). Article Google Scholar
Raetzo, H., Lateltin, O., Bollinger, D. & Tripet, J. P. Hazard assessment in Switzerland—Codes of Practice for mass movements. Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ.61, 263–268 (2002). Article Google Scholar
Wang, W., Yao, T., Gao, Y., Yang, X. & Kattel, D. B. A first-order method to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes in a region of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Mt. Res. Dev.31, 122 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Bolch, T. et al. Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan. Nat. Hazards59, 1691–1714 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Haeberli, W. Mountain permafrost—research frontiers and a special long-term challenge. Cold Reg. Sci. Technol.96, 71–76 (2013). Article Google Scholar
Kinzl, H. & Schneider, E. Cordillera Blanca (Perú) (Univ. Wagner, 1950).
Schauwecker, S. et al. Climate trends and glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited. Glob. Planet. Change119, 85–97 (2014). Article Google Scholar
Mackintosh, A. N., Anderson, B. M. & Pierrehumbert, R. T. Reconstructing climate from glaciers. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.45, 649–680 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Guillod, B. P. et al. weather@home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system. Geosci. Model Dev.10, 1849–1872 (2017). Article Google Scholar
Betts, R. Biogeophysical impacts of land use on present-day climate: near-surface temperature change and radiative forcing. Atmos. Sci. Lett.2, 39–51 (2001). Article Google Scholar
Hofer, M., Mölg, T., Marzeion, B. & Kaser, G. Empirical–statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). J. Geophys. Res.115, D12120 (2010). Article Google Scholar
Legates, D. R. & Willmott, C. J. Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int. J. Climatol.10, 111–127 (1990). Article Google Scholar
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (Wiley, 2008).
Sicart, J.-E., Hock, R., Ribstein, P., Litt, M. & Ramirez, E. Analysis of seasonal variations in mass balance and meltwater discharge of the tropical Zongo Glacier by application of a distributed energy balance model. J. Geophys. Res.116, D13105 (2011). Article Google Scholar
Sicart, J. E., Ribstein, P., Francou, B., Pouyaud, B. & Condom, T. Glacier mass balance of tropical Zongo glacier, Bolivia, comparing hydrological and glaciological methods. Glob. Planet. Change59, 27–36 (2007). Article Google Scholar
Kaser, G. & Osmaston, H. A. Tropical Glaciers (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2002).
Kaser, G., Juen, I., Georges, C., Gómez, J. & Tamayo, W. The impact of glaciers on the runoff and the reconstruction of mass balance history from hydrological data in the tropical Cordillera Bianca, Perú. J. Hydrol.282, 130–144 (2003). Article Google Scholar
Mölg, T. & Hardy, D. R. Ablation and associated energy balance of a horizontal glacier surface on Kilimanjaro. J. Geophys. Res. D109, D16104 (2004). Article Google Scholar
Rupper, S. & Roe, G. H. Glacier changes and regional climate: a mass and energy balance approach. J. Clim.21, 5384–5401 (2008). Article Google Scholar
Farinotti, D. et al. A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth. Nat. Geosci.12, 168–173 (2019). Article Google Scholar
Oerlemans, J. An attempt to simulate historic front variations of Nigardsbreen, Norway. Theor. Appl. Climatol.37, 126–135 (1986). Article Google Scholar
Roe, G. H. & Baker, M. B. Glacier response to climate perturbations: an accurate linear geometric model. J. Glaciol.60, 670–684 (2014). Article Google Scholar
Roe, G. H. & Baker, M. B. The response of glaciers to climatic persistence. J. Glaciol.62, 440–450 (2016). Article Google Scholar
Christian, J. E., Koutnik, M. & Roe, G. H. Committed retreat: controls on glacier disequilibrium in a warming climate. J. Glaciol.64, 675–688 (2018). Article Google Scholar
Cogley, J. G., Kienholz, C., Miles, E. S., Sharp, M. J. & Wyatt, F. GLIMSGlacier Database (NSIDC, 2015); https://doi.org/10.7265/N5V98602
Mergili, M. et al. Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.24, 93–114 (2020). Article Google Scholar