Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle (original) (raw)
References
McPhaden, M. J. Genesis and evolution of the 1997–98 El Niño. Science283, 950–954 (1999). CASPubMed Google Scholar
Maloney, E. D. & Hartmann, D. L. Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden–Julian oscillation. J. Clim. 13, 1451–1460 (2000). ADS Google Scholar
Klotzbach, P. J. & Oliver, E. C. Modulation of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) from 1905 to 2011. J. Clim. 28, 204–217 (2015). ADS Google Scholar
Joseph, S., Sahai, A. & Goswami, B. Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts. Clim. Dyn. 32, 1139–1153 (2009). Google Scholar
Jia, X., Chen, L., Ren, F. & Li, C. Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28, 521–533 (2011). Google Scholar
Wheeler, M. C., Hendon, H. H., Cleland, S., Meinke, H. & Donald, A. Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation on Australian rainfall and circulation. J. Clim. 22, 1482–1498 (2009). ADS Google Scholar
Pohl, B. & Camberlin, P. Influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on East African rainfall. I: intraseasonal variability and regional dependency. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2521–2539 (2006). ADS Google Scholar
Lorenz, D. J. & Hartmann, D. L. The effect of the MJO on the North American monsoon. J. Clim. 19, 333–343 (2006). ADS Google Scholar
Grimm, A. M. Madden–Julian Oscillation impacts on South American summer monsoon season: precipitation anomalies, extreme events, teleconnections, and role in the MJO cycle. Clim. Dyn. 53, 1–26 (2019). Google Scholar
Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C. & Liebmann, B. The South Atlantic convergence zone: intensity, form, persistence, and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall. J. Clim. 17, 88–108 (2004). ADS Google Scholar
Lazo, J. K., Lawson, M., Larsen, P. H. & Waldman, D. M. US economic sensitivity to weather variability. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 709–720 (2011). ADS Google Scholar
Bertrand, J.-L. & Brusset, X. Managing the financial consequences of weather variability. J. Asset Manag. 19, 301–315 (2018). Google Scholar
Kessler, W. S. EOF representations of the Madden–Julian oscillation and its connection with ENSO. J. Clim. 14, 3055–3061 (2001). ADS Google Scholar
Zhang, C. Madden–Julian oscillation: bridging weather and climate. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 1849–1870 (2013). ADS Google Scholar
Cassou, C. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature455, 523–527 (2008). ADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Stan, C. et al. Review of tropical-extratropical teleconnections on intraseasonal time scales. Rev. Geophys. 55, 902–937 (2017). ADS Google Scholar
Garfinkel, C. I., Feldstein, S. B., Waugh, D. W., Yoo, C. & Lee, S. Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L18807 (2012). ADS Google Scholar
Madden, R. A. & Julian, P. R. Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation—a review. Mon. Weath. Rev. 122, 814–837 (1994). ADS Google Scholar
Maloney, E. D., Adames, Á. F. & Bui, H. X. Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming. Nat. Clim. Change9, 26–33 (2019). ADS Google Scholar
Adames, Á. F., Kim, D., Sobel, A. H., Del Genio, A. & Wu, J. Changes in the structure and propagation of the MJO with increasing CO2. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 9, 1251–1268 (2017). ADSPubMedPubMed Central Google Scholar
Oliver, E. C. & Thompson, K. R. A reconstruction of Madden–Julian Oscillation variability from 1905 to 2008. J. Clim. 25, 1996–2019 (2012). ADS Google Scholar
Oliver, E. C. Blind use of reanalysis data: apparent trends in Madden–Julian Oscillation activity driven by observational changes. Int. J. Climatol. 36, 3458–3468 (2016). Google Scholar
Jones, C. & Carvalho, L. M. V. Changes in the activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during 1958–2004. J. Clim. 19, 6353–6370 (2006). ADS Google Scholar
Pohl, B. & Matthews, A. J. Observed changes in the lifetime and amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation associated with interannual ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Clim. 20, 2659–2674 (2007). ADS Google Scholar
Slingo, J. M., Rowell, D. P., Sperber, K. R. & Nortley, E. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Nino. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 583–609 (1999). ADS Google Scholar
Arnold, N. P., Kuang, Z. & Tziperman, E. Enhanced MJO-like variability at high SST. J. Clim. 26, 988–1001 (2013). ADS Google Scholar
Zhang, C. & Ling, J. Barrier effect of the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent on the MJO: perspectives from tracking MJO precipitation. J. Clim. 30, 3439–3459 (2017). ADS Google Scholar
Foltz, G. R. & McPhaden, M. J. The 30–70 day oscillations in the tropical Atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L15205 (2004). ADS Google Scholar
Wheeler, M. C. & Hendon, H. H. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Weath. Rev. 132, 1917–1932 (2004). ADS Google Scholar
Yoo, C., Feldstein, S. & Lee, S. The impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation trend on the Arctic amplification of surface air temperature during the 1979–2008 boreal winter. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L24804 (2011). ADS Google Scholar
Song, E. J. & Seo, K. H. Past-and present-day Madden–Julian Oscillation in CNRM-CM5. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 4042–4048 (2016). ADS Google Scholar
Roxy, M. Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification. Clim. Dyn. 43, 1159–1169 (2014). Google Scholar
Cravatte, S., Delcroix, T., Zhang, D., McPhaden, M. & Leloup, J. Observed freshening and warming of the western Pacific warm pool. Clim. Dyn. 33, 565–589 (2009). Google Scholar
Dong, L. & McPhaden, M. J. The role of external forcing and internal variability in regulating global mean surface temperatures on decadal timescales. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 034011 (2017). ADS Google Scholar
Suematsu, T. & Miura, H. Zonal SST difference as a potential environmental factor supporting the longevity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation. J. Clim. 31, 7549–7564 (2018). ADS Google Scholar
Sobel, A., Wang, S. & Kim, D. Moist static energy budget of the MJO during DYNAMO. J. Atmos. Sci. 71, 4276–4291 (2014). ADS Google Scholar
Kim, D., Kug, J.-S. & Sobel, A. H. Propagating versus nonpropagating Madden–Julian Oscillation events. J. Clim. 27, 111–125 (2014). ADS Google Scholar
Gonzalez, A. O. & Jiang, X. Winter mean lower tropospheric moisture over the Maritime Continent as a climate model diagnostic metric for the propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 2588–2596 (2017). ADS Google Scholar
Tokinaga, H., Xie, S.-P., Deser, C., Kosaka, Y. & Okumura, Y. M. Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature491, 439–443 (2012). ADSCASPubMed Google Scholar
Hermes, J. C. et al. A sustained ocean observing system in the Indian Ocean for climate related scientific knowledge and societal needs. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 355 (2019). Google Scholar
Subramanian, A. et al. Ocean observations to improve our understanding, modeling, and forecasting of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 427 (2019). Google Scholar
Vitart, F. & Robertson, A. W. The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 1, 3 (2018). Google Scholar
Straub, K. H. MJO initiation in the real-time multivariate MJO index. J. Clim. 26, 1130–1151 (2013). ADS Google Scholar
Liu, P. et al. A revised real-time multivariate MJO index. Mon. Weath. Rev. 144, 627–642 (2016). ADS Google Scholar
Wolding, B. O. & Maloney, E. D. Objective diagnostics and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Part II: application to moist static energy and moisture budgets. J. Clim. 28, 7786–7808 (2015). ADS Google Scholar
Ventrice, M. J. et al. A modified multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation index using velocity potential. Mon. Weath. Rev. 141, 4197–4210 (2013). ADS Google Scholar
Hendon, H. H., Wheeler, M. C. & Zhang, C. Seasonal dependence of the MJO–ENSO relationship. J. Clim. 20, 531–543 (2007). ADS Google Scholar
Schreck, C., Lee, H.-T. & Knapp, K. HIRS outgoing longwave radiation—daily climate data record: application toward identifying tropical subseasonal variability. Remote Sens. 10, 1325 (2018). ADS Google Scholar
Kikuchi, K., Wang, B. & Kajikawa, Y. Bimodal representation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Clim. Dyn. 38, 1989–2000 (2012). Google Scholar
Seo, K.-H. & Kumar, A. The onset and life span of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 94, 13–24 (2008). ADS Google Scholar
Wheeler, M. & Kiladis, G. N. Convectively coupled equatorial waves: analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber–frequency domain. J. Atmos. Sci. 56, 374–399 (1999). ADS Google Scholar
Roundy, P. E., Schreck, C. J. III & Janiga, M. A. Contributions of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves and Kelvin waves to the real-time multivariate MJO indices. Mon. Weath. Rev. 137, 469–478 (2009). ADS Google Scholar
Zeileis, A., Kleiber, C., Krämer, W. & Hornik, K. Testing and dating of structural changes in practice. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 44, 109–123 (2003). MathSciNetMATH Google Scholar
Bai, J. & Perron, P. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. J. Appl. Econ. 18, 1–22 (2003). Google Scholar
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R. & Smith, R. A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Wat. Resour. Res. 18, 107–121 (1982). ADS Google Scholar
Cohen, P., West, S. G. & Aiken, L. S. Applied Multiple Regression/Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (Psychology Press, 2014).
Kendall, M. G. Rank Correlation Methods 2 edn (C. Griffin, 1948).
Mann, H. B. & Whitney, D. R. On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann. Math. Stat. 18, 50–60 (1947). MathSciNetMATH Google Scholar