Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years (original) (raw)

Nature volume 488, pages 70–72 (2012) Cite this article

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Abstract

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change1. Although approximately one-half of total CO2 emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs2, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon–climate feedback3. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land4,5,6 and ocean7,8,9,10 have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline11,12,13. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO2 measurements, CO2 emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO2 sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon–climate interactions.

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Figure 1: Trends in the global carbon budget from 1959 to 2010.

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Figure 2: Accumulation of carbon emissions in the atmosphere, on land and in the oceans.

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Acknowledgements

A.P.B. was supported by the US National Research Council and the US National Science Foundation. This manuscript benefitted from comments from J. Neff, N. Lovenduski and G. Marland. We also thank K. Masarie for performing the bootstrap calculations on the atmospheric CO2 sampling network. This work would not have been possible without the careful measurements made by scientists at NOAA ESRL and volunteer sample collectors throughout the world.

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Author notes

  1. A. P. Ballantyne
    Present address: Present address: Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, USA
    A. P. Ballantyne & J. W. C. White
  2. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
    C. B. Alden & J. W. C. White
  3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, USA
    J. B. Miller
  4. Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA
    J. B. Miller & P. P. Tans

Authors

  1. A. P. Ballantyne
  2. C. B. Alden
  3. J. B. Miller
  4. P. P. Tans
  5. J. W. C. White

Contributions

All authors identified the need for this analysis. P.P.T. and J.B.M. contributed to the uncertainty analysis, and P.P.T. and A.P.B. devised the Monte Carlo simulations. A.P.B. and C.B.A. wrote the paper with assistance from all other co-authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toA. P. Ballantyne.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Ballantyne, A., Alden, C., Miller, J. et al. Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years.Nature 488, 70–72 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11299

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Editorial Summary

Carbon sinks hold firm

The current state of land and ocean carbon sinks has been the subject of intense debate, because it has implications for how the carbon cycle might respond to climate change. About half of the current carbon dioxide emissions are taken up by land and ocean carbon sinks. Model studies predict a decline in future carbon sinks, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback, and several recent studies have suggested that land and ocean carbon sinks are beginning to wane. These authors use a global mass balance approach to audit the global carbon cycle, focusing on well-constrained observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and estimates of anthropogenic emissions and a rigorous analysis of uncertainties. They find that carbon sinks have actually doubled during the past 50 years and continue to increase significantly. There were no signs, as of 2010, that carbon uptake has started to diminish on the global scale

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