Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth (original) (raw)

Data availability

The literature-based dataset (both raw and filtered) and detailed descriptions of the environmental covariates are all available at https://github.com/forc-db/groa, where GROA stands for Global Restoration Opportunity Assessment. Data are also archived on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3983644). The Supplementary Information includes metadata for the literature-derived dataset (Supplementary Table S3, Supplementary sections 4 and 5). We also include data on country-level estimates (see Supplementary Data 1). Spatial data for both aboveground carbon accumulation rates and uncertainty (scaled and unscaled by mean pixel value), as well as belowground carbon accumulation rates can be downloaded from Global Forest Watch (http://www.globalforestwatch.org). S.C.C.-P. and N.H. welcome discussions around potential collaborations, and the data are freely available. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

We include code for constructing the global maps and assessing uncertainty at https://github.com/forc-db/groa.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, COmON Foundation, the Craig and Susan McCaw Foundation, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the Good Energies Foundation, and Microsoft’s AI for Earth program for financial support. This paper was also developed with funding from the Government of Norway, although it does not necessarily reflect their views or opinions. We thank J. Adams, E. Brolis, A. Hector, J. Ghazoul, M. Hamsik, S. Lewis, B. Luraschi, R. Thadani, B. Tsang and A. Yang for the initial idea development at an Oxford University workshop in 2017. We thank G. Domke and B. Walters (USDA Forest Service) for providing fuzzed FIA plot data, J. Fridman (Swedish National Forest Inventory) for providing Swedish data, and H. Xu for providing raw biomass data from Jainfengling Nature Reserve (Hainan Island, China).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA
    Susan C. Cook-Patton, Sara M. Leavitt & Peter W. Ellis
  2. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
    Susan C. Cook-Patton & John D. Parker
  3. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USA
    David Gibbs, Nancy L. Harris, Kristine Lister & Robin L. Chazdon
  4. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
    Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira & Valentine Herrmann
  5. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama City, Panama
    Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira
  6. State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY, USA
    Russell D. Briggs
  7. University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
    Robin L. Chazdon
  8. University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Queensland, Australia
    Robin L. Chazdon
  9. ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
    Thomas W. Crowther, Devin Routh & Johan van den Hoogen
  10. James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA
    Heather P. Griscom
  11. University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
    Karen D. Holl
  12. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
    Richard A. Houghton & Wayne S. Walker
  13. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
    Cecilia Larrosa
  14. Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
    Guy Lomax
  15. Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK
    Richard Lucas
  16. InNovaSilva ApS, Vejle, Denmark
    Palle Madsen
  17. Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
    Yadvinder Malhi
  18. Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
    Alain Paquette
  19. CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
    Keryn Paul & Stephen Roxburgh
  20. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, CA, USA
    Sassan Saatchi & Liang Xu
  21. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
    Charlotte E. Wheeler
  22. Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
    Stephen A. Wood
  23. Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA
    Bronson W. Griscom

Authors

  1. Susan C. Cook-Patton
  2. Sara M. Leavitt
  3. David Gibbs
  4. Nancy L. Harris
  5. Kristine Lister
  6. Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira
  7. Russell D. Briggs
  8. Robin L. Chazdon
  9. Thomas W. Crowther
  10. Peter W. Ellis
  11. Heather P. Griscom
  12. Valentine Herrmann
  13. Karen D. Holl
  14. Richard A. Houghton
  15. Cecilia Larrosa
  16. Guy Lomax
  17. Richard Lucas
  18. Palle Madsen
  19. Yadvinder Malhi
  20. Alain Paquette
  21. John D. Parker
  22. Keryn Paul
  23. Devin Routh
  24. Stephen Roxburgh
  25. Sassan Saatchi
  26. Johan van den Hoogen
  27. Wayne S. Walker
  28. Charlotte E. Wheeler
  29. Stephen A. Wood
  30. Liang Xu
  31. Bronson W. Griscom

Contributions

S.C.C.-P., B.W.G., N.L.H., D.G., K.L., S.S. and L.X. designed the study with input from all authors. S.C.C.-P. contributed to and led all other facets of the study. S.M.L., K.J.A.-T., R.D.B., P.W.E., H.P.G., K.D.H., C.L., R.L., K.P., S.R., S.A.W., C.E.W., W.S.W. and B.W.G. contributed to database compilation, analyses and manuscript preparation. N.L.H., K.L., D.G., T.W.C., D.R., S.S., L.X. and J.v.d.H. constructed the global maps and contributed to manuscript preparation. G.L., R.L., V.H., K.P. and S.R. contributed to database compilation and manuscript preparation. R.L.C., R.A.H., Y.M., P.M., A.P. and J.D.P. contributed to manuscript preparation. S.C.C.-P. is the corresponding author, handling requests for reprints and materials not included in the data repository.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toSusan C. Cook-Patton.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature thanks Michael Ryan, Edzo Veldkamp and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Variation in carbon accumulation among biomes.

Observed variation in total plant carbon accumulation rates and soil carbon accumulation rates (mean ± 95% confidence intervals) from the literature-derived dataset. We did not have plant biomass data for subtropical and tropical conifer forests.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 2 Accumulation of coarse woody debris and litter carbon through time.

We did not find studies describing litter (black) or coarse woody debris (grey) pools in temperate savannas, or coarse woody debris in tropical savannas.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 3 Variation in carbon stocks among biomes.

Carbon pools (mean ± standard error) in coarse woody debris (grey) and litter (black).

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 4 Effect of disturbance intensity on carbon accumulation.

Carbon accumulation in plots with high intensity disturbance (black circles, black line) versus low intensity disturbance (grey circles, grey line). The most disturbed categories had lower residual biomass at the initiation of regrowth (for example, 0 Mg C ha−1 versus 28 Mg C ha−1 in the least disturbed category; Welch’s _t_-value = 5.9, P < 0.0001), suggesting that the higher rate in the most disturbed category is due to standard sigmoidal growth rates in forests.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 5 Map of extent of extrapolation per pixel across all covariate layers.

A value of 1 indicates that 100% of pixels fall within the sample range (that is, there is no extrapolation).

Extended Data Fig. 6 Fine-scale variation in rates.

a, Map of predicted carbon accumulation rates in Colombia, as an example. b, Map of predicted rates filtered to the area of opportunity in Griscom et al.3 to demonstrate where these rates might apply.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Coverage of field data.

Distribution of sites after final filtering of the literature-based dataset (blue) and inclusion of the field inventory data (green). We compiled data from forest (dark grey) and savanna biomes (light grey). We restricted savanna data to portions of these grassland-forest matrices with forest cover >25%.

Extended Data Table 1 General approaches for restoring forest or tree cover

Full size table

Extended Data Table 2 Effect of disturbance intensity on carbon accumulation

Full size table

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information (download PDF )

This supplementary information file includes additional methodological details (Table S1 and S2), metadata for the literature-derived dataset (Tables S3, S4 and S5), and a list of all publications included in the literature-derived dataset.

Supplementary Data (download CSV )

This supplementary dataset includes country-level summaries of carbon accumulation rates (Mg C ha−1 yr−1) and mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth (Tg C yr−1) under two scenarios for natural forest regrowth. The first scenario represents a biophysical maximum3 and the second is based on national commitments12. Mitigation estimates are illustrative only, based on assumptions of new forest area. Note that the national commitments scenario includes commitments around “forest restoration”, which may or may not describe areas of new forest. The rate column includes rates from pixels that overlap with area of opportunity pixels in Griscom et al3. We only list countries that are a million hectares or larger.

Source data

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Cook-Patton, S.C., Leavitt, S.M., Gibbs, D. et al. Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth.Nature 585, 545–550 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

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