Validation and comparison of models predicting survival... : Critical Care Medicine (original) (raw)

Neurologic Critical Care

Validation and comparison of models predicting survival following intracerebral hemorrhage

Tuhrim, Stanley MD; Horowitz, Deborah R. MD; Sacher, Michael MD; Godbold, James H. PhD

From the Departments of Neurology (Drs. Tuhrim and Horowitz), Radiology (Dr. Sacher), and Community Medicine (Dr. Godbold), Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY.

This study was supported, in part, by grants NS 29762 and NS 27924 from the National Institutes of Health (NINDS), and by a gift for stroke research from the Leon Hess Foundation.

Address requests for reprints to: Stanley Tuhrim, MD, Department of Neurology, Box 1137, Mount Sinai Medical Center, One Gustave L. Levy Place, New York, NY 10029-6574.

Abstract

Objective

To compare the performance of two previously reported logistic regression models using data independent from those data used to derive the models.

Design

Prospective.

Setting

Acute stroke unit of a tertiary care hospital.

Patients

One hundred twenty-nine patients with supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage.

Measurements and Main Results

Model 1 contains the initial Glasgow Coma Scale score, hemorrhage size, and pulse pressure. The more complex model 2 includes, in addition to those three variables, the presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage and a term representing the interaction of intraventricular hemorrhage and Glasgow Coma Scale score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves generated for each model were statistically indistinguishable.

Conclusions

Model 1 predicts 30-day patient status as well as the more complex model 2. Model 1 provides a valid, easy-to-use means of categorizing supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage patients in terms of their probability of survival.

(Crit Care Med 1995; 23:950-954)