Nomograms for Pre- and Postoperative Prediction of... : Annals of Surgery (original) (raw)

ORIGINAL ARTICLES

Nomograms for Pre- and Postoperative Prediction of Long-term Survival for Patients Who Underwent Hepatectomy for Multiple Hepatocellular Carcinomas

Yang, Pinghua MD; Qiu, Jiliang MD; Li, Jun MD; Wu, Dong MD; Wan, Xuying MD; Lau, Wan Yee MD; Yuan, Yunfei MD; Shen, Feng MD

*Department of Hepatic Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai, China

†Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China

‡State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China and Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China

§Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR, China.

Reprints: Feng Shen, MD, Department of Hepatic Surgery, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Second Military Medical University, 225 Changhai Rd, Shanghai, 200433, China. E-mail: [email protected] or Yunfei Yuan, MD, Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, 651 Dongfeng Rd East, Guangzhou, 510060, China. E-mail: [email protected].

Disclosure: Supported by the grant of State Key Project on Infectious Diseases of China (2008ZX10002-025, 2012ZX10002-016 to F.S.). The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Supplemental digital content is available for this article. Direct URL citations appear in the printed text and are provided in the HTML and PDF versions of this article on the journal's Website (www.annalsofsurgery.com).

Abstract

Objectives:

To develop prognostic nomograms for patients undergoing hepatectomy for multiple hepatocellular carcinomas (mHCCs).

Background:

The prognostic prediction after hepatectomy for mHCCs has not been well established.

Methods:

A training cohort (n = 540) was analyzed to construct 2 nomograms based separately on data obtained before and after hepatectomy for mHCCs at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2000 and 2006. The internal and external validations were performed in 2 independent cohorts (n = 180 each) collected from the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2007 and 2010 and the Sun Yat-Sen University between 2000 and 2007. The predictive accuracy was measured by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

Results:

Serum α-fetoprotein level, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid load, end-stage liver disease score, tumor number, total tumor diameter, and the ratio of largest to smallest tumor diameter were incorporated into the preoperative nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction. In addition to these variables, microvascular invasion, tumor capsule, type of hepatectomy, and local invasion/metastasis were incorporated into the postoperative nomogram. All calibration curves for probability of OS fitted well. In the training cohort, the preoperative nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.78) in predicting OS and accurately stratified patients into 4 prognostic subgroups (5-year OS rates: 65.9%, 46.3%, 29.6%, and 4.1%, P < 0.001). The postoperative nomogram had a C-index of 0.80, which was higher than those of the 4 conventional staging systems (0.53–0.62). These results were supported by the internal and external validations.

Conclusions:

The 2 nomograms showed accurate pre- and postoperative prediction of posthepatectomy prognosis in patients with mHCCs.