Interpretation of COVID-19 case fatality risk measures in England (original) (raw)
Interpretation of COVID-19 case fatality risk measures in England
- http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1387-0200Katie Harman,
- http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7213-5471Hester Allen,
- http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6971-427XMeaghan Kall,
- http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4606-5945Gavin Dabrera
- COVID-19 Epidemiology Cell, Public Health England, London, UK
- Correspondence to Katie Harman, COVID-19 Epidemiology Cell, Public Health England, London SE1 8UG, UK; feedback.c19epi{at}phe.gov.uk
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Case fatality risk (CFR) describes the risk of fatality among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19. These metrics can indicate crude trends in the risk of death with COVID-19 and are often used as international comparators.1 However, demographic factors and changing testing practices can lead to substantial discrepancies. Here, we highlight complexity of CFR interpretation, using England as an example.
We calculated CFRs for laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases since the start of the second pandemic wave (week 27 onwards) in England.2 CFR was calculated using a 60-day lag time, following an individuals’ first positive specimen. CFR was stratified by age group and gender, and for those aged ≥80 years old, by long-term care …