Comparative estimates of climatic consequences of Martian dust storms and of possible nuclear war | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology (original) (raw)

Comparative estimates of climatic consequences of Martian dust storms and of possible nuclear war

Original Research Papers

• G. S. Golitsyn
• A. S. Ginsburg

Abstract

We present a simple analytical model which yields estimates of the temperature of the surface Ts and mean atmospheric temperature Ta of a planet. The model considers radiative energy balance at the top of the atmosphere and at the underlying surface, and absorption and scattering within the atmosphere, for globally averaged conditions. The model gives reasonable estimates for (a) Ts and Ta for both clean and dusty Martian atmospheres, (b) and for clean and dusty (asteroid impact) atmospheres of Earth, and (c) the change in Ts for the Earth’s atmosphere when the CO2 content is doubled. When applied to the “war aerosol loaded” terrestrial atmosphere, the model produces results similar to those obtained by Turco, Toon, Ackerman. Pollack and Sagan (TTAPS) and others. However, the analytical nature of the present model exposes certain features which are not revealed by more numerically complicated studies. and this is a matter of particular importance when analysing the consequences of the large uncertainties in smoke injection rates into the atmosphere. Thus the model shows that the sharpest and main changes in Ts occur when the optical depth in the visible τs is of order unity or less. reaches the minimum at τs ≈ 3. and then, as rs increases further, Ts slowly recovers to the effective temperature Te determined by the balance at the top of the atmosphere. This means the decrease in Ts associated with very heavy loading would be followed by a further decrease in Ts when the aerosol begins to settle out. The other important result is the atmospheric temperature Ta over ocean may be considerably higher than Ta over land. Qualitative arguments indicate how aerosol loading might change general circulation patterns and suppress the hydrological cycle.

Submitted on Nov 22, 2022

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