Reconstructing the recent carbon cycle from atmospheric CO2, δ13C and O2/N2 observations* | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology (original) (raw)
Reconstructing the recent carbon cycle from atmospheric CO2, δ13C and O2/N2 observations*
Original Research Papers
Abstract
This paper presents an attempt to recover the space–time structure of fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere over the period 1980–1995 from atmospheric concentration and isotopic composition measurements. The technique used is Bayesian synthesis inversion in which sources are aggregated into large regions and their strengths adjusted to match observed concentrations. The sources are constrained by prior estimates based on a priori knowledge. The input data are atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements from the NOAA/CMDL network, 13CO2 composition and O2/N2 ratios measured at Cape Grim, Tasmania by CSIRO Atmospheric Research. The primary findings are a relatively large long-term mean ocean uptake of CO2, and seasonal fluxes over land with similar integrated magnitude, but smaller peak amplitude, compared with those derived by Fung and co-workers. Predicted interannual variability is smaller than reported in previous studies. The largest contributor is the oceanic tropics where fluxes vary on the time scale of the southern oscillation. There is evidence of longer time-scale variation in land uptake. Increases in ocean uptake and northern land uptake in the early 1990s are consistent with a response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
Submitted on Nov 16, 2022
Metrics
Click on the tabs below to view various metrics for this article.
References
Bacastow , R. B . 1976 . Modulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the southern oscillation . _Nature_261 , 116 – 118 .
Battle , M. , Bender , M. , Sowers , T. , Tans , P. P. , Butler , J. H. , Elkins , J. W. , Ellis , J. T. , Conway , T. , Zhang , N. , Lang , P. and Clarke , A. D . 1996 . Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the South Pole . _Nature_383 , 231 – 235 .
Bousquet , P. , Ciais , P. , Monfray , P. , Balkanski , Y. , Ramonet , M. and Tans , P . 1996 . Influence of two atmospheric transport models on inferring sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 . _Tellus_48B , 568 – 582 .
Brown , M . 1995 . The singular value decomposition method applied to the deduction of the emissions and the isotopic composition of atmospheric methane . J. Geophys. Res. 100 , 11425 – 11446 .
Ciais , P. , Tans , P. P. , White , J. W. C. , Trolier , M. , Fran-cey , R. J. , Berry , J. A. , Randall , D.R. ., Sellers, P. J., Collatz, J. G. and Schimel, D. S. 1995. Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by S“C measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network. J. Geophys. Res. 100 , 5051 – 5070
Conway , T. J. , Tans , P. P. , Waterman , L. S. , Thoning , K. W. , Kitzis , D. R. , Masarie , K. A. and Zhang , N . 1994 . Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Dia-gnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network . J. Geophys. Res. 99 , 22831 – 22855 .
Denning , A. S. , Fung , I. Y. and Randall , D. A . 1995 . Gradient of atmospheric CO2 due to seasonal exchange with land biota. Nature 376 , 240 - 243 .
Elliot , W. P. , Angell , J. K. and Thoning , K. W . 1991 . Relation of atmospheric CO2 to tropical sea and air temperatures and precipitation . _Tellus_43B , 144 – 155 .
Enting , I. G. and Mansbridge , J. V . 1991 . Latitudinal distribution of sources and sinks of CO2: Results of an inversion study . _Tellus_43B , 156 – 170 .
Enting , I. G. , Trudinger , C. M. , Francey , R. J. and Granek , H . 1993 . Synthesis inversion of atmospheric CO2 using the GISS tracer transport model . CSIRO Div. Atmos. Res. Tech. Paper No. 29 , 44 pp .
Enting , I. G. , Wigley , T. M. L. and Heimann , M . 1994 . Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land analyses . CSIRO Div. Atmos. Res. Tech. Paper No. 31 , 118 pp .
Enting , I. G. , Trudinger , C. M. and Francey , R. J . 1995 . A synthesis inversion of the concentration and S“C of atmospheric CO2 . _Tellus_47B , 35 – 52 .
Francey , R. J. , Tans , P. P. , Allison , C. E. , Enting , I. G. , White , J. W. C. and Trolier , M . 1995 . Changes in oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake since 1982 . _Nature_373 , 326 – 330 .
Francey , R. J. , Allison , C. E. , Etheridge , D. M. , Trudinger , C. M. , Enting , I. G. , Leuenberger , M. , Langenfelds , R. L. , Michel , E. and Steele , L. P . 1999 . A 1000-year high precision record of 5 “C in atmospheric CO2 . _Tellus_51B , 170 – 193 .
Fung , I. Y. , Tucker , C. J. and Prentice , K. C . 1987 . Application of advanced very high resolution radio-meter vegetation index to study atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO ,. J. Geophys. Res. 92 , 2999 – 3015 .
Fung, I. , John, J. , Lerner, J. , Matthews, E. , Prather, M. , Steele, L. P. and Fraser, P. J. 1991. Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. J. Geo-phys. Res. 96 , 13033 – 13065
Galloway , J. N. , Schlesinger , W.H. ., Levy II, H., Michaels, A. and Schnoor, L. 1995. Nitrogen fixation: Anthropogenic enhancement-environmental response.Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 9 , 235 – 252
Houghton , J. , Jenkins , G. and Ephraums , J. (eds.) 1990 . Climate change. The IPCC assessment . Cambridge University Press .
Kaminski , T. , Heimann , M. and Giering , R . 1998 . A matrix representation for an atmospheric transport model computed by its adjoint. Air pollution modelling and its application; xii, pp. 247 – 255 . Plenum Press.
Kauppi , P. E. , Mielikainen , K. and Kuusela , K . 1992 . Biomass and carbon budget of European forests, 1971 to 1990 . _Science_256 , 70 – 74 .
Keeling , R. F. and Shertz , S. R . 1992 . Seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric oxygen and implications for the global carbon cycle . _Nature_358 , 723 – 727 .
Keeling , C.D. ., Piper, S. C. and Heimann, M. 1989. A three-dimensional model of atmospheric CO2 trans-port based on observed winds (4). Mean annual gradi-ents and interannual variations. Aspects of climate variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas. Geophysical Monograph 55, D. Peterson (ed.). AGU, Washington (USA) 305 – 363 .
Keeling , C.D. ., Whorf, T. P., Wahlen, M. and Van der Plicht, J. 1995. Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980._Nature_375 , 666 – 670
Keeling , R. F. , Piper , S. C. and Heimann , M . 1996 . Global and hemispheric CO2 sinks deduced from changes in atmospheric 02 concentration . _Nature_381 , 218 – 221 .
Langenfelds , R. L. , Francey , R.J. ., Steele, L. P. , Keeling, R. F. , Battle, M. and Budd, W. F. 1999. Measurements of 02/N2 ratio from the Cape Grim Air Archive and three independent flask sampling programs. Baseline Atmospheric Program Australia 1996 ( eds. Dick, A. L. , Gras, J. L. , Derek, N. and Tindale, N. W. ). Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, in press.
Law , R. and Simmonds , I . 1996 . The sensitivity of deduced CO2 sources and sinks to variations in transport and imposed surface concentrations . _Tellus_48B , 613 – 625 .
Law , R. M. , Rayner , P. J. , Denning , A. S. , Erickson, D., Fung, I. Y., Heimann, M., Piper, S. C., Ramonet, M., Taguchi, S., Taylor, J. A., Trudinger, C. M. and Wafter-son, I. G. 1996. Variations in modelled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 10 , 483 – 496
Law , R . 1996 . The selection of model-generated CO2 data: a case study with seasonal biospheric sources . _Tellus_48B , 474 – 486 .
Law , R. M . 1999 . CO2 sources from a mass-balance inversion: sensitivity to the surface constraint . Tellus , this issue .
Marland , G. and Boden , T . 1997 . Estimates of global, regional, and national annual COremissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring: 1950-1994. NDP-030R7 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .
Marland , G. , Boden , T. A. , Griffin , R. C. , Huang , S. F. , Kanciruk , P. and Nelson , T. R . 1989 . Estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing, based on the US Bureau of Mines cement manufacturing data. ORNL/ CDIAC-25,NDP-030 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .
Nakazawa , T. , Morimoto , S. , Aoki , S. and Tanaka , M . 1997 . Temporal and spatial variations of the carbon isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the western Pacific region . J. Geophys. Res. 102 , 1271 – 1285 .
Pearman , G. I. and Hyson , P . 1986 . Global transport and inter-reservoir exchange of carbon dioxide with particular reference to stable isotopic distributions . J. Atmos. Chem. 4 , 81 – 124 .
Prather , M. , McElroy , M. , Wofsy , S. , Russell , G. and Rind , D . 1987 . Chemistry of the global troposphere: fluorocarbons as tracers of air motion . J. Geophys. Res. 92 , 6579 – 6613 .
Quay , P.D. ., Tilbrook, B. and Wong, C. S. 1992. Oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO2: carbon-13 evidence._Science_256 , 74 – 79
Ramonet , M. and Monfray , P . 1996 . CO2 baseline con-cept in 3-D atmospheric transport models . _Tellus_48B , 502 – 520 .
Sarmiento , J. L. and Sundquist , E . 1992 . Revised budget for the oceanic uptake of CO2 . _Nature_356 , 589 – 593 .
Sarmiento , J. L. , Orr , J. C. and Sigenthaler , U . 1992 . A perturbation simulation of CO2 uptake in an ocean general circulation model . J. Geophys. Res. 97 , 3621 – 3646 .
Schimel , D. , Enting, I. , Heimann, M. , Wigley, T. , Ray-naud, D. , Alves, D. and Siegenthaler, U. 1995. CO2 and the carbon cycle. Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios (eds. Houghton, J. , Filho, L. M. , Bruce, J. , Lee, H. , Callander, B. , Haites, E. , Harris , N. and Maskell , K .). Cambridge University Press, pp. 35 – 71 .
Takahashi , T. , Feely , R. A. , Weiss , R. F. , Wanninkhof , R. H. , Chipman , D. W. , Southerland , S. C. and Takah-ashi , T. T . 1997 . Global air—sea flux of CO2: An estim-ate based on measurements of sea—air pCO2-difference. Proc . Nat. Acad. Sci. 94 , 8292 – 8299 .
Tans , P. P. , Fung, . I. Y. and Takahashi , T . 1990 , Observa-tional constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget . _Science_247 , 1431 – 1438 .
Tans , P. P. , Berry , J. A. and Keeling , R. F . 1993 . Oceanic “C/12C observations: a new window on ocean CO2 uptake . Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 7 , 353 – 368 .
Tarantola , A . 1987 . Inverse problem theory: methods for data fitting and parameter estimation . Elsevier , Amsterdam .
Thompson , M. L. , Enting , I. G. , Pearman , G. I. and Hyson , P . 1986 . Interannual variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration . J. Atmos. Chem. 4 , 125 – 155 .
Trampert , J . and Snieder , R . 1996 . Model estimations biased by truncated expansions: possible artifacts in seismic tomography . Science. 271 , 1257 – 1260 .
Trudinger , C. M ., Enting , I. G ., Francey , R. J ., Etheridge , D. M . and Rayner , P. J . 1999 . Long-term variability in the global carbon cycle inferred from a high preci-sion CO2 and “C ice-core record . _Tellus_51B , 233 – 249 .
Wofsy , S. C. , Goulden , M. L. , Munger , J. W. , Fan , S. M. , Bakwin , P. S. , Daube , B. C. , Bassow , S. L. and Bazzaz , F. A . 1993 . Net exchange of CO2 in a mid-latitude forest . _Science_260 , 1314 – 1317 .