Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon (original) (raw)

References

• Adams, J. K. (1957). Laboratory studies of behavior without awareness.Psychological Bulletin,54, 383–405.
  Article PubMed Google Scholar
• Adams, J. K., &Adams, P. A. (1961). Realism of confidence judgments.Psychological Review,68, 33–45.
  Article PubMed Google Scholar
• Björkman, M. (in press). Internal cue theory: Calibration and resolution of confidence in general knowledge.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes.
• Dawes, R. M. (1980). Confidence in intellectual judgments vs. confidence in perceptual judgments. In E. D. Lanterman & H. Feger (Eds.),Similarity and choice: Papers in honour of Clyde Coombs (pp. 327–345). Bern: Huber.
  Google Scholar
• Festinger, L. (1943). Studies in decision: I. Decision time, relative frequency of judgment and subjective confidence as related to physical stimulus difference.Journal of Experimental Psychology,32, 291–306.
  Article Google Scholar
• Fischhoff, B., &Macgregor, D. (1982). Subjective confidence in forecasts.Journal of Forecasting,1, 155–172.
  Article Google Scholar
• Fullerton, G. S., & Cattell, J. M. (1892). On the perception of small differences.Publications of the University of Pennsylvania (No. 2).
• Garrett, H. E. (1922). A study of the relation of accuracy to speed.Archives of Psychology, No. 56.
• Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., &Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence.Psychological Review, 98,4, 506–528.
  Article Google Scholar
• Griffing, J. H. (1895). On sensations from pressure and impact.Psychological Review Monographs,1, 1–88.
  Google Scholar
• Johnson, D. M. (1939). Confidence and speed in two-category judgment.Archives of Psychology, No. 241.
• Juslin, P. (1993). An explanation of the hard-easy effect in studies of realism of confidence in general knowledge.European Journal of Cognitive Psychology,5, 55–71.
  Article Google Scholar
• Juslin, P. (in press). The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal exrjerimenter-guided selection of almanac items.Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes.
• Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., &Tversky, A. (Eds.) (1982).Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  Google Scholar
• Keren, G. (1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies.Acta Psychologica,67, 95–119.
  Article PubMed Google Scholar
• Keren, G. (1991). Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues.Acta Psychologica,77, 217–273.
  Article Google Scholar
• Lichtenstein, S., &Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?Organizational Behavior & Human Performance,20, 159–183.
  Article Google Scholar
• Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., &Phillips, L. D. (1982), Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.),Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics andbiases (pp. 306–334). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  Google Scholar
• O’Connor, M. (1989). Models of human behavior and confidence in judgment: A review.International Journal of Forecasting,5, 159–169.
  Article Google Scholar
• Peirce, C. S., &Jastrow, J. (1884). On small differences of sensation.Memoirs National Academy of Sciences,3, 73–83.
  Google Scholar
• Thurstone, L. L. (1927a). A law of comparative judgment.Psychological Review,34, 273–286.
  Article Google Scholar
• Thurstone, L. L. (1927b). Psychophysical analysis.American Journal of Psychology,38, 368–369.
  Article Google Scholar
• Wallsten, T. S., &Budescu, D. V. (1983). Encoding subjective probabilities: A psychological and psychometric review.Management Science,29, 2, 152–173.
  Article Google Scholar
• Winkler, R. L. (1971). Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results.Journal of the American Statistical Association,66, 675–685.
  Article Google Scholar
• Yates, J. F. (1982). External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score.Organizational Behavior & Human Performance,30, 132–156.
  Article Google Scholar

Download references