Peter Johnston | Defence Research and Development Canada (original) (raw)
Papers by Peter Johnston
Journal of Strategic Security, 2012
Since 2000, Peter Johnston has been a Defense Scientist conducting Strategic Analysis for the Cen... more Since 2000, Peter Johnston has been a Defense Scientist conducting Strategic Analysis for the Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, a part of Defense Research and Development Canada. Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational and non-operational environments. He holds an M.A. in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada. He has conducted energy security research for ten years, examining topics including the link between oil and conflict in Africa, nationalization, the threat posed by terrorism on oil and gas infrastructure, Arctic energy geopolitics, and energy security more broadly. He has been published in conference proceedings and journals including Baltic Rim Economies the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies and Pomorskiego Przeglądu Gospodarczego (Pomeranian Economic Review). He has presented his research at events in North America and Europe.
Journal of Strategic Security, 2010
Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational ... more Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational and non-operational environments. He holds an M.A. in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada. He has conducted energy security research for seven years, examining topics including the link between oil and conflict in Africa, nationalization, the threat posed by terrorism on oil and gas infrastructure, Arctic energy geopolitics, and energy security more broadly. Mr. Johnston is leading a three-year project examining contemporary energy security to determine its implications for militaries. He has been published in conference proceedings and journals including Baltic Rim Economies and the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies. He has presented his research in North America and Europe.
would help to alleviate the pressure on the global oil and gas markets and potentially enhance en... more would help to alleviate the pressure on the global oil and gas markets and potentially enhance energy security as a result. This paper will examine the energy potential of the Arctic by first highlighting the projected quantity and location of oil and gas reserves. It will then consider the challenges posed by the environment on developments, review current Arctic operations, and examine the potential of resource conflicts attributable to unresolved border disputes. The paper will conclude with an assessment of future prospects for energy extraction in the region. Arctic Energy Resources While there are deposits of uranium and coal scattered throughout the area north of the Arctic Circle, the main energy resources of interest for commercial operators are oil and gas. The precise quantities of these resources remains unknown however a study conducted in 2008 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggests that the untapped oil and gas reserves in the Arctic region are substantial. The report notes that "the sum of the mean estimates … indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur offshore." 4 Given that the study used a geology-based probabilistic methodology, the actual reserve amounts lie somewhere within a broad range. For oil, the amount of undiscovered reserves is estimated to lie between 44 billion barrels of oil (BBO) (>95% chance) and 157 BBO (5% chance). The study suggests that the Arctic may contain approximately 13% of the global mean estimate of undiscovered oil, which is approximately 618 BBO. 5 4 "Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle,"
In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the Arctic as a source for resources, as... more In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the Arctic as a
source for resources, as a potential zone for commercial shipping, and as a
region that might experience conflict due to its strategic importance. With
regards to energy resources, some studies suggest that the region contains
upwards of 13 percent of global undiscovered oil, 30 percent of undiscovered
gas, and multiples more of gas hydrates. The decreasing amount and
duration of Arctic ice cover suggests that extraction of these resources will
be increasingly commercially viable. Arctic and non-arctic states wish to
benefit from the region's resources and the potential circum-polar navigation
possibilities. This has led to concerns about the environmental risks
of these operations as well as the fear that competition between states for
resources might result in conflict. Unresolved offshore boundaries
between the Arctic states exacerbate these fears. Yet, the risk of conflict
seems overstated considering the bilateral and multilateral steps undertaken
by the Arctic states to resolve contentious issues. This article will
examine the potential impact of Arctic energy resources on global security
as well as the regional environment and examine the actions of concerned
states to promote their interests in the region.
This research examines historical energy transformations, the changing contemporary energy enviro... more This research examines historical energy transformations, the changing contemporary energy environment, and threats to energy supply. It concludes by highlighting some of the implications for countries and military forces.
This Technical Memorandum discusses the nature and extent of the terrorist threat against the pet... more This Technical Memorandum discusses the nature and extent of the terrorist threat against the petroleum industry. It specifically focuses on al Qaeda’s efforts and stated intent to strike at energy infrastructure in the Middle East and in other parts of the world, including Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Additionally, it highlights economic costs of petro-terrorism and vulnerabilities to oil infrastructure, and suggests possible options for governments and industry to reduce the risks posed by terrorists.
Journal of Strategic Security, 2012
Since 2000, Peter Johnston has been a Defense Scientist conducting Strategic Analysis for the Cen... more Since 2000, Peter Johnston has been a Defense Scientist conducting Strategic Analysis for the Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, a part of Defense Research and Development Canada. Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational and non-operational environments. He holds an M.A. in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada. He has conducted energy security research for ten years, examining topics including the link between oil and conflict in Africa, nationalization, the threat posed by terrorism on oil and gas infrastructure, Arctic energy geopolitics, and energy security more broadly. He has been published in conference proceedings and journals including Baltic Rim Economies the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies and Pomorskiego Przeglądu Gospodarczego (Pomeranian Economic Review). He has presented his research at events in North America and Europe.
Journal of Strategic Security, 2010
Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational ... more Previously, he was an infantry officer in the Canadian Forces, gaining experience in operational and non-operational environments. He holds an M.A. in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada. He has conducted energy security research for seven years, examining topics including the link between oil and conflict in Africa, nationalization, the threat posed by terrorism on oil and gas infrastructure, Arctic energy geopolitics, and energy security more broadly. Mr. Johnston is leading a three-year project examining contemporary energy security to determine its implications for militaries. He has been published in conference proceedings and journals including Baltic Rim Economies and the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies. He has presented his research in North America and Europe.
would help to alleviate the pressure on the global oil and gas markets and potentially enhance en... more would help to alleviate the pressure on the global oil and gas markets and potentially enhance energy security as a result. This paper will examine the energy potential of the Arctic by first highlighting the projected quantity and location of oil and gas reserves. It will then consider the challenges posed by the environment on developments, review current Arctic operations, and examine the potential of resource conflicts attributable to unresolved border disputes. The paper will conclude with an assessment of future prospects for energy extraction in the region. Arctic Energy Resources While there are deposits of uranium and coal scattered throughout the area north of the Arctic Circle, the main energy resources of interest for commercial operators are oil and gas. The precise quantities of these resources remains unknown however a study conducted in 2008 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggests that the untapped oil and gas reserves in the Arctic region are substantial. The report notes that "the sum of the mean estimates … indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur offshore." 4 Given that the study used a geology-based probabilistic methodology, the actual reserve amounts lie somewhere within a broad range. For oil, the amount of undiscovered reserves is estimated to lie between 44 billion barrels of oil (BBO) (>95% chance) and 157 BBO (5% chance). The study suggests that the Arctic may contain approximately 13% of the global mean estimate of undiscovered oil, which is approximately 618 BBO. 5 4 "Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle,"
In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the Arctic as a source for resources, as... more In recent years, there has been considerable interest in the Arctic as a
source for resources, as a potential zone for commercial shipping, and as a
region that might experience conflict due to its strategic importance. With
regards to energy resources, some studies suggest that the region contains
upwards of 13 percent of global undiscovered oil, 30 percent of undiscovered
gas, and multiples more of gas hydrates. The decreasing amount and
duration of Arctic ice cover suggests that extraction of these resources will
be increasingly commercially viable. Arctic and non-arctic states wish to
benefit from the region's resources and the potential circum-polar navigation
possibilities. This has led to concerns about the environmental risks
of these operations as well as the fear that competition between states for
resources might result in conflict. Unresolved offshore boundaries
between the Arctic states exacerbate these fears. Yet, the risk of conflict
seems overstated considering the bilateral and multilateral steps undertaken
by the Arctic states to resolve contentious issues. This article will
examine the potential impact of Arctic energy resources on global security
as well as the regional environment and examine the actions of concerned
states to promote their interests in the region.
This research examines historical energy transformations, the changing contemporary energy enviro... more This research examines historical energy transformations, the changing contemporary energy environment, and threats to energy supply. It concludes by highlighting some of the implications for countries and military forces.
This Technical Memorandum discusses the nature and extent of the terrorist threat against the pet... more This Technical Memorandum discusses the nature and extent of the terrorist threat against the petroleum industry. It specifically focuses on al Qaeda’s efforts and stated intent to strike at energy infrastructure in the Middle East and in other parts of the world, including Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Additionally, it highlights economic costs of petro-terrorism and vulnerabilities to oil infrastructure, and suggests possible options for governments and industry to reduce the risks posed by terrorists.