SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING (original) (raw)

Abstract

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD, Maastricht, The Netherlands
    WILLEM J. M. Martens
  2. Department of Entomology, C. T. de Wit Graduate School for Production Ecology, Wageningen Agricultural University, Lawickse Allee 13, 6701 AN, Wageningen, The Netherlands
    THEO H. Jetten
  3. Medical and Veterinary Entomology Research Laboratory, US Department of Agriculture, P.O. Box 14565, Gainesville, FL, U.S.A
    DANA A. Focks

Authors

  1. WILLEM J. M. Martens
  2. THEO H. Jetten
  3. DANA A. Focks

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Martens, W.J.M., Jetten, T.H. & Focks, D.A. SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING.Climatic Change 35, 145–156 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005365413932

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