DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR ROSS RIVER VIRUS DISEASE IN BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA (original) (raw)

• INTRODUCTION
• MATERIALS AND METHODS
  • Study area.
  • Data collection.
  • Data analysis
• RESULTS
• DISCUSSION

ProCite

RefWorks

Reference Manager

• 1
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• Abstract/Excerpt
• Author Notes

This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985–2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (β = 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.

Author Notes

Copyright:

Copyright 2004 The American Society of Tropical Medicine 2004

Received:

07 Jan 2004

|

Accepted:

10 Mar 2004

|

Published Online:

Aug 2004

• INTRODUCTION
• MATERIALS AND METHODS
  • Study area.
  • Data collection.
  • Data analysis
• RESULTS
• DISCUSSION

ProCite

RefWorks

Reference Manager

• 1
  Reiter P, 2001. Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environ Health Perspect 109 _:_141–161.
  • PubMed
    Reiter P, 2001. Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environ Health Perspect 109: 141–161.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 2
  Ansari M, Shope R, 1994. Epidemiology of arboviral infections. Public Health Rev 22 _:_1–26.
  • PubMed
    Ansari M, Shope R, 1994. Epidemiology of arboviral infections. Public Health Rev 22: 1–26.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 3
  Doherty R, Whitehead R, Gorman B, 1963. The isolation of a third group A arbovirus in Australia, with preliminary observations on its relationship to epidemic polyarhritis. Aust J Sci 26 _:_183–184.
  • PubMed
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    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 4
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  • PubMed
    Doherty R, Carley J, Best J, 1972. Isolation of Ross River virus in from man. Med J Aust 1: 1083–1084.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 5
  Aaskov J, Mataika J, Lawrence G, Rabukawaqa V, Tucker M, Miles J, Dalglish D, 1981. An epidemic of Ross River virus infection in Fiji, 1979. Am J Trop Med Hyg 30 _:_1053–1059.
  • PubMed
    Aaskov J, Mataika J, Lawrence G, Rabukawaqa V, Tucker M, Miles J, Dalglish D, 1981. An epidemic of Ross River virus infection in Fiji, 1979. Am J Trop Med Hyg 30: 1053–1059.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 6
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  • PubMed
    Rosen L, Gubler D, Bennett P, 1981. Epidemic polyarthritis (Ross River) virus infection in the Cook Islands. Am J Trop Med Hyg 30: 1294–1302.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 7
  Mackenzie J, Brook A, Hall R, Johansen C, Lindsay M, Philips D, Ritchie S, Russell R, Smith D, 1998. Arboviruses in the Australian region, 1990 to 1998. Comm Dis Intell 22 _:_93–100.
  • PubMed
    Mackenzie J, Brook A, Hall R, Johansen C, Lindsay M, Philips D, Ritchie S, Russell R, Smith D, 1998. Arboviruses in the Australian region, 1990 to 1998. Comm Dis Intell 22: 93–100.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 8
  Johansen CA, van den Hurk AF, Ritchie SA, Zborowski P, Nisbet DJ, Paru R, Bockarie MJ, Macdonald J, Drew AC, Khromkh TI, Mackenzie JS, 2000. Isolation of Japanese encephalitis virus from mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) collected in the Western Province of Papua New Guinea, 1997–1998. Am J Trop Med Hyg 62 _:_631–638.
  • PubMed
    Johansen CA, van den Hurk AF, Ritchie SA, Zborowski P, Nisbet DJ, Paru R, Bockarie MJ, Macdonald J, Drew AC, Khromkh TI, Mackenzie JS, 2000. Isolation of Japanese encephalitis virus from mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) collected in the Western Province of Papua New Guinea, 1997–1998. Am J Trop Med Hyg 62: 631–638.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 9
  Mudge P, Aaskov J, 1983. Epidemic polyarthritis in Australia, 1980–1981. Med J Aust 17 _:_269–273.
  • PubMed
    Mudge P, Aaskov J, 1983. Epidemic polyarthritis in Australia, 1980–1981. Med J Aust 17: 269–273.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 10
  Fraser J, 1986. Epidemic polyarthritis and Ross River virus disease. Clin Rheum Dis 12 _:_369–388.
  • PubMed
    Fraser J, 1986. Epidemic polyarthritis and Ross River virus disease. Clin Rheum Dis 12: 369–388.
    )| false
  • Search Google Scholar
  • Export Citation
• 11
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