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Research paper thumbnail of Diagnostics of prior-data agreement in applied Bayesian analysis

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Research paper thumbnail of Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component, from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data, Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2015

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industria... more We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in-service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Mark...

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Research paper thumbnail of Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component, from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data, Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2015

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industria... more We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in-service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Mark...

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Research paper thumbnail of Inversion probabiliste en analyse d'incertitude

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Research paper thumbnail of A protocol for integrating FED and expert data in a study of durability using the Weibull distribution

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Research paper thumbnail of Chassot2009

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Research paper thumbnail of Estimation de modèles markoviens discrets dans un cadre industriel fiabiliste à données manquantes

Les modèles markoviens sont particulièrement utiles pour décrire des systèmes qui, au long de leu... more Les modèles markoviens sont particulièrement utiles pour décrire des systèmes qui, au long de leur vie, passent à travers différents états. Les paramètres de ces modèles sont les probabilités de transition entre les états. Normalement, les données disponibles pour l'inférence statistique sont des séquences temporelles d'états pour un nombre donné d'individus. Quand les séquences sont incomplètes, l'estimation de la matrice de transition n'est pas triviale et demande l'utilisation de techniques plus avancées. Dans cette communication, nous nous focalisons sur l'estimation bayésienne des probabilités de transition. Premièrement, nous présentons différentes méthodes MCMC, en fonction de la structure des données manquantes. Ensuite, nous proposons une manière d'accélérer les calculs MCMC en tenant compte de la dépendance entre les lignes de la matrice de transition. Finalement, nous montrons les résultats d'essais simulés menés sur des matrices typiqu...

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Research paper thumbnail of On the Practical Interest of Discrete Inverse Pólya and Weibull-1 Models in Industrial Reliability Studies

Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Une modelisation de duree de vie a risques de defaillance concurrents

A simple competing risk distribution as a possible alternative to the Weibull distri- bution in l... more A simple competing risk distribution as a possible alternative to the Weibull distri- bution in lifetimes analysis is proposed. This distribution is the minimum between an exponential and a Weibull distributions. First, its main characteristics are pre- sented. Then the estimation of its parameters are considered through maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Statistical tests to choose between a Weibull distribution

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Research paper thumbnail of Bayesian inference for inverse problems occurring in uncertainty analysis

International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification, 2014

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Research paper thumbnail of Density modification-based reliability sensitivity analysis

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Research paper thumbnail of Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PLoS ONE, 2013

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Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting the Major Influences of Predation and Environment on Cod Recovery in the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

PLoS ONE, 2014

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Research paper thumbnail of Role of predation by harp seals Pagophilus groenlandicus in the collapse and non-recovery of northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod Gadus morhua

Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009

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Research paper thumbnail of An alternative competing risk model to the Weibull distribution for modelling aging in lifetime data analysis

Lifetime Data Analysis, 2006

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Research paper thumbnail of Redefining the maximum sustainable yield for the Schaefer population model including multiplicative environmental noise

Journal of theoretical biology, Jan 7, 2008

The focus of this article is to investigate the biological reference points, such as the maximum ... more The focus of this article is to investigate the biological reference points, such as the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), in a common Schaefer (logistic) surplus production model in the presence of a multiplicative environmental noise. This type of model is used in fisheries stock assessment as a first-hand tool for biomass modelling. Under the assumption that catches are proportional to the biomass, we derive new conditions on the environmental noise distribution such that stationarity exists and extinction is avoided. We then get new explicit results about the stationary behavior of the biomass distribution for a particular specification of the noise, namely the biomass distribution itself and a redefinition of the MSY and related quantities that now depend on the value of the variance of the noise. Consequently, we obtain a more precise vision of how less optimistic the stochastic version of the MSY can be than the traditionally used (deterministic) MSY. In addition, we give empi...

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Research paper thumbnail of Density-dependence can be revealed by modelling the variance in the stock-recruitment process: an application to flatfish

ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014

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Research paper thumbnail of Estimating discrete Markov models from various incomplete data schemes

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2012

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Research paper thumbnail of Detecting and correcting underreported catches in fish stock assessment: trial of a new method

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2010

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Research paper thumbnail of An integrated Bayesian modeling approach for the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna

Fisheries Research, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Diagnostics of prior-data agreement in applied Bayesian analysis

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component, from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data, Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2015

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industria... more We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in-service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Mark...

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Detection of Flaws in an Industrial Component, from Destructive and Nondestructive Testing Data, Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2015

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industria... more We consider the problem of estimating the probability of detection (POD) of flaws in an industrial steel component. Modeled as an increasing function of the flaw height, the POD characterizes the detection process; it is also involved in the estimation of the flaw size distribution, a key input parameter of physical models describing the behavior of the steel component when submitted to extreme thermodynamic loads. Such models are used to assess the resistance of highly reliable systems whose failures are seldom observed in practice. We develop a Bayesian method to estimate the flaw size distribution and the POD function, using flaw height measures from periodic in-service inspections conducted with an ultrasonic detection device, together with measures from destructive lab experiments. Our approach, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques, is applied to a real data set and compared to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and a more classical approach based on Mark...

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Research paper thumbnail of Inversion probabiliste en analyse d'incertitude

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of A protocol for integrating FED and expert data in a study of durability using the Weibull distribution

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Chassot2009

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Estimation de modèles markoviens discrets dans un cadre industriel fiabiliste à données manquantes

Les modèles markoviens sont particulièrement utiles pour décrire des systèmes qui, au long de leu... more Les modèles markoviens sont particulièrement utiles pour décrire des systèmes qui, au long de leur vie, passent à travers différents états. Les paramètres de ces modèles sont les probabilités de transition entre les états. Normalement, les données disponibles pour l'inférence statistique sont des séquences temporelles d'états pour un nombre donné d'individus. Quand les séquences sont incomplètes, l'estimation de la matrice de transition n'est pas triviale et demande l'utilisation de techniques plus avancées. Dans cette communication, nous nous focalisons sur l'estimation bayésienne des probabilités de transition. Premièrement, nous présentons différentes méthodes MCMC, en fonction de la structure des données manquantes. Ensuite, nous proposons une manière d'accélérer les calculs MCMC en tenant compte de la dépendance entre les lignes de la matrice de transition. Finalement, nous montrons les résultats d'essais simulés menés sur des matrices typiqu...

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of On the Practical Interest of Discrete Inverse Pólya and Weibull-1 Models in Industrial Reliability Studies

Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2015

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Une modelisation de duree de vie a risques de defaillance concurrents

A simple competing risk distribution as a possible alternative to the Weibull distri- bution in l... more A simple competing risk distribution as a possible alternative to the Weibull distri- bution in lifetimes analysis is proposed. This distribution is the minimum between an exponential and a Weibull distributions. First, its main characteristics are pre- sented. Then the estimation of its parameters are considered through maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Statistical tests to choose between a Weibull distribution

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Bayesian inference for inverse problems occurring in uncertainty analysis

International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification, 2014

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Density modification-based reliability sensitivity analysis

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PLoS ONE, 2013

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting the Major Influences of Predation and Environment on Cod Recovery in the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

PLoS ONE, 2014

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Role of predation by harp seals Pagophilus groenlandicus in the collapse and non-recovery of northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod Gadus morhua

Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of An alternative competing risk model to the Weibull distribution for modelling aging in lifetime data analysis

Lifetime Data Analysis, 2006

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Redefining the maximum sustainable yield for the Schaefer population model including multiplicative environmental noise

Journal of theoretical biology, Jan 7, 2008

The focus of this article is to investigate the biological reference points, such as the maximum ... more The focus of this article is to investigate the biological reference points, such as the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), in a common Schaefer (logistic) surplus production model in the presence of a multiplicative environmental noise. This type of model is used in fisheries stock assessment as a first-hand tool for biomass modelling. Under the assumption that catches are proportional to the biomass, we derive new conditions on the environmental noise distribution such that stationarity exists and extinction is avoided. We then get new explicit results about the stationary behavior of the biomass distribution for a particular specification of the noise, namely the biomass distribution itself and a redefinition of the MSY and related quantities that now depend on the value of the variance of the noise. Consequently, we obtain a more precise vision of how less optimistic the stochastic version of the MSY can be than the traditionally used (deterministic) MSY. In addition, we give empi...

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Density-dependence can be revealed by modelling the variance in the stock-recruitment process: an application to flatfish

ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Estimating discrete Markov models from various incomplete data schemes

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2012

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Detecting and correcting underreported catches in fish stock assessment: trial of a new method

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2010

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of An integrated Bayesian modeling approach for the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna

Fisheries Research, 2015

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact