Luisa Perini | Regione Emilia-Romagna (original) (raw)

Papers by Luisa Perini

Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most... more Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most impactful in terms of global population affected (UNDRR, 2020). Coastal areas are exposed to multiple met-ocean extreme events which can occur separately or combined. Storm surges associated with wind waves, heavy rainfall and tides can lead to catastrophic inundation events associated with breakdown of structures, food and water insecurities and loss of lives. Additionally, climate changes are associated with two coastal risk factors: a) an increase of extreme events (Schiermeier, 2011; Vitousek et al., 2017) and b) an increase of sea level rise (IPCC, 2018).Different approaches exist to flood modelling (Vousdoukas et al.,2016; Dottori, Martina and Figueiredo, 2018), varying by complexity and accuracy. Simple hydrological models, which operate by integrating the 2D shallow water equation in a flood-plain, offer a good trade-off between computational demand and good skills in simulating...

Environmental Modelling & Software

Negli ultimi 50 anni la fascia costiera dell'Emilia-Romagna ha conosciuto un massiccio svilup... more Negli ultimi 50 anni la fascia costiera dell'Emilia-Romagna ha conosciuto un massiccio sviluppo urbano in seguito al quale alcuni processi naturali, come l'erosione delle spiagge, che da sempre hanno caratterizzato l'evoluzione del sistema litoraneo, sono divenuti fenomeni dai quali ci si deve difendere. L'erosione delle spiagge è un fenomeno riconducibile alla combinazione di diverse cause tra le quali si annoverano l'eustatismo, la subsidenza, la dinamica litoranea e la diminuzione dell'apporto solido da parte dei fiumi (Bondesan et alii, 1978). L'attenzione verso tale fenomeno in Emilia-Romagna ha prodotti importanti studi che hanno permesso di analizzare in dettaglio le diverse cause e di stabilire l'entità delle perdite della spiaggia negli ultimi 25 anni (Idroser S.p.a., 1996; ARPA Emilia-Romagna, 2002, 2008)

Negli ultimi anni è cresciuta l'attenzione per il monitoraggio dei fenomeni a forte impatto s... more Negli ultimi anni è cresciuta l'attenzione per il monitoraggio dei fenomeni a forte impatto sul sistema costiero. Il progetto europeo Micore prevede lo sviluppo di un sistema previsionale per la comprensione e previsione dei fenomeni erosivi sulla costa anche in Emilia-Romagna. I risultati per l'inverno 2009-2010 hanno evidenziato il contributo delle acque alte per i fenomeni erosivi e hanno confermato la necessità di un sistema di previsione attivo e di continuare le pratiche di protezione in atto

It is an interesting paper that illustrates the consequences of mean sea level rise and stormines... more It is an interesting paper that illustrates the consequences of mean sea level rise and storminess on the coastal areas of Emilia-Romagna in terms of land loss. The paper is logically structured and the methodology seems adequate (but I cannot make comments on the flood model because I don’t know it). Unfortunately, the paper often contains confusing terminology that makes it hard to understand. This problem should be solved before the paper can be published.

The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region is exposed to risk from coastal flooding during sto... more The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region is exposed to risk from coastal flooding during storms. The vulnerability of this coastline is a topic of interest for future coastal planning as this area provides large revenue for coastal communities and the whole region. High-resolution air-borne laser detection technology (LIDAR) has permitted to undertake a feasibility study for the assessment of coastal erosion and flooding patterns along one of the best-preserved dune systems of the area. Following a period of exceptional events occurred in September 2004, with a return period of 100-years, the whole coastal system is in a state of weakness. A risk evaluation was therefore undertaken for combined events of storm waves and surges, with return periods of 1, 10 and 100 years. A methodology for the characterisation of dune erosion is proposed

Ocean & Coastal Management, 2020

Multiple anthropogenic activities can exert adverse effects on marine vulnerable ecological compo... more Multiple anthropogenic activities can exert adverse effects on marine vulnerable ecological components and the ecosystem services they provide to human well-being. Emilia-Romagna (E-R) Region belongs to one of the most industrialized coastal and sea areas of the Italian Northern Adriatic Sea, requiring adequate decision support instruments able to assist authorities to enforce ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). In this research we combine Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) model with marine ecosystem services capacity (MES Cap) assessment of multiple ecological components (seabed habitats, essential fish habitats, marine mammals and turtles). The geospatial instruments were used for E-R Region's sea space to support the selection of spatially explicit measures to address two marine conservation objectives, i.e. A. preservation of essential fish habitats and B. protection of species of high conservation value, namely marine mammals and turtles, proposed within an MSP pilot study for the region. Results show that cumulative effects are mainly generated from trawling activities, maritime transport (e.g. Port of Ravenna), and by the influence of land-based activities (i.e. inputs from Po river and other minor rivers). Highest threats to marine ecosystem services (ES) were related to supporting ES (e.g. habitat and nursery provisioning) and to cultural ES. We discuss the contribution of the presented approach towards an ecosystem-based management in the region and the potential benefits that the integration of the ES concept can have in the designing of planning measures with the aim of reducing the cumulative effects and of maintaining marine ecological resources and services.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016

The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system... more The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20-to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016

This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna regio... more This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The first approach was adopted before the directive had been issued. Three scenarios of damage were designed (1-, 10-, 100-year return periods), produced by the concurrent occurrence of a storm, high surge levels and high-water spring tidal levels. Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along 187 equally spaced profiles, and these were added to the tidal and atmospheric water level contributions. The result is a list of 10 vulnerability typologies. To satisfy the requirements of the directive, the Geological, Seismic and Soil Service (SGSS) recently implemented a different methodology that considers three scenarios (10-, 100-and > 100-year return periods) in terms of wave setup (not including run-up) plus the contribution of surge levels as well as the occurrence of high-water springs. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations that are part of a model built into ArcGIS ®. The model uses as input a high-resolution lidar DEM that is then processed using a least-path cost analysis. Inundation maps are then overlapped with land use maps to produce risk maps. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods are also presented, showing a positive agreement.

Land subsidence represents a kind of hazard, which affects an increasing number of worldwide regi... more Land subsidence represents a kind of hazard, which affects an increasing number of worldwide regions, densely populated, causing damage to the environment and infrastructures. Settlements can be related to multiple processes both natural and anthropic (i.e. vadose zone processes, soil consolidation, aquifer compaction, solid and fluid extraction and load-induced compaction) which take place at different spatio-temporal scale. Over the last decades, advanced subsidence studies exploited Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) data, a recent remote sensing tool, to investigate land subsidence phenomena around the world. In particular, Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique, allowing a quantitative estimation at high resolution of the surface deformations, has already been successfully applied to monitor the phenomenon evolution; PSI measurements represent the cumulative displacement, deriving from the contribution of natural and anthropic components, both superficial and deep. The...

The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy is exposed to risk from coastal flooding a... more The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy is exposed to risk from coastal flooding and erosion during storms. The vulnerability of this coastline is a topic of interest for future planning as this area provides large revenue for coastal communities and the whole region. An assessment of the historical record of storm events for the period 2000-2004 was carried out using a wave prediction model, forced by archived atmospheric circulation data. High-resolution airborne laser detection technology (LIDAR) and video-monitoring (ARGUS) were used to undertake a feasibility study for the assessment of coastal erosion and flooding patterns along one of the best-preserved dune systems of the area. The object of the work was the comparison between two LIDAR flights at an interval of one year (July 2003-September 2004) with the second flight carried out after a major storm occurred in September 2004. Following this event the whole coastal system was severely eroded. The study presented in this paper suggests that for the coast of the Emilia-Romagna region the critical factor that controls dune destruction and inland flooding is the joint occurrence of storm waves and surges. Beach slope is the main morphological control on wave run-up and the impact evaluation for the exceptional event has proved that a wide beach can provide a factor of safety. A small beach replenishment (33,000 m 3) was undertaken on the test site but this resulted to be ineffective because of the small volume. Larger-scale beach recharge schemes should be undertaken at the site on a regular basis to provide wider beaches at the dune toe.

ermesambiente.it

... Paolo CIAVOLA (*), Clara ARMAROLI (*), Marinella MASINA (*), Luisa PERINI (**), Paolo Luciani... more ... Paolo CIAVOLA (*), Clara ARMAROLI (*), Marinella MASINA (*), Luisa PERINI (**), Paolo Luciani ... Si è provveduto quindi al calcolo del valore di massimo run-up, o risalita della lama d'acqua, per ciascun tempo di ritorno, utilizzando l'espressione di Komar (1998) basata sulla ...

Fra la terra e il mare: analisi e proposte per la Pianificazione dello Spazio Marittimo in Emilia... more Fra la terra e il mare: analisi e proposte per la Pianificazione dello Spazio Marittimo in Emilia-Romagna

The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil p... more The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil protection agencies in order to prepare themselves and, if needs be, execute the appropriate hazard-reduction measures. In this study we present a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal storm risk on the Emilia-Romagna coastline in Northern Italy. This EWS is run by executing a chain of numerical models (SWAN, ROMS and XBeach) daily, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision making by end-users. The storm impact indicator selected for this site is the Safe Corridor Width (SCW), which is a measure of how much dry beach width is available for safe passage by beach users. A three-day time-series of the predicted SCW is generated daily by the prototype EWS. If the minimum SCW exceeds a certain threshold, a warning is issued to end-users via an automated email service. All available prediction information is also updated daily on-line. Over the one year th...

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2020

Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Rave... more Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Ravenna (Italy) were identified by analysing the relationships among different data set time series (water table level, rainfall, land reclamation drainage, sea level, etc.) and establishing the correlations with vertical ground motion observed at a high-resolution settlement gauge. Our study highlights the presence of three deformation components related to different processes controlling land subsidence: elastic, delayed-elastic, and irreversible (plastic) components. The elastic and delayed-elastic components are closely related to water table fluctuations that change the effective stress in two portions of the coastal aquifer at a daily (in the sandy unconfined portion) and seasonal time scales (in the layered clay-rich semi-confined prodelta portion), respectively. The irreversible component represents the trend in the land subsidence time series and is due to primary consolidation (pore pressure dissipation) of the fine-grained prodelta levels above where the settlement gauge is located. The amplitudes of the elastic component can be up to 0.2-0.3 mm whereas the amplitude of the delayed-elastic component reaches 0.89 mm. The primary consolidation rate of deformation is 0.9 mm yr −1 and constrains the likely age of prodelta sediments deposition to 1300-2800 years before present. The delayed-elastic subsidence rate has similar magnitude to that due to primary consolidation and is connected to poroelastic effects in the prodelta sequence following seasonal variations in water table. Our findings are important for planning land subsidence management and monitoring strategies especially where the surface aquifer structure is heterogeneous due to different depositional settings. The natural land subsidence rate in the Holocene sediments of the shallow coastal aquifer of Ravenna (North eastern Italy) that we measured in this study accounts for 10 %-20 % of the total current land subsidence rate observed in this portion of Ravenna coastal area (10-20 mm yr −1).

The Emilia-Romagna Region has developed an integrated system for the management of sea-storm risk... more The Emilia-Romagna Region has developed an integrated system for the management of sea-storm risk based on agreements between different public authorities and industry, on cartographic products and IT services. A sea-storm occurred on 6 February 2015 offered the opportunity to test the part of the operative chain responsible for data collection, monitoring and analysis of the impacts, which belongs to the regional geological service (SGSS) and to improve the knowledge about the phenomenon. The forecast models have predicted two days before the severity of the event and the Civil Protection issued a prompt warning. It was activated immediately the observation procedure and the data collection, including remote sensing information (photos and movies), those were invaluable for the analysis of the impacts and for the creation of dedicated maps. Besides, it was possible to check the flood hazard maps of the Directive 2007/60, confirming the strength of the adopted model.

Le coste che soffrono di fenomeni di erosione a lungo termine sono particolarmente esposte alle m... more Le coste che soffrono di fenomeni di erosione a lungo termine sono particolarmente esposte alle mareggiate. L’impatto di eventi estremi sul litorale è in funzione della loro energia assoluta e del processo di clustering, cioè dell’occorrenza di eventi che si susseguono a breve distanza nel tempo. Il processo di erosione viene inoltre controllato dalla persistenza di livelli di alta marea al di sopra della quota del medio mare. Il fenomeno è noto in alto Adriatico come acqua alta, più universalmente come storm surge. Qualora si voglia effettuare una valutazione di rischio da ingressione marina è quindi necessario considerare la probabilità combinata di occorrenza simultanea di entrambi i fenomeni, con periodo di ritorno annuale, decennale o centennale. La zona a sud dei Fiumi Uniti presenta diversi insediamenti balneari, localizzati in corrispondenza degli abitati di Lido di Dante e di Lido di Classe. Per arginare la consistente erosione costiera ed i fenomeni di ingressione marina, negli ultimi 30 anni sono state costruite una serie di opere longitudinali e trasversali. Una svolta nella politica gestionale della costa si è però avuta alla fine degli anni ‘80 (Preti, 1993) con la realizzazione del primo ripascimento a Lido di Dante (65000 m3 nel 1986) e Lido di Classe (35000 m3 tra il 1989 ed il 1990). Inizialmente gli interventi erano basati su sabbie provenienti da cave, mentre più recentemente (2002) si è passati all’utilizzo di sabbie marine su larga scala, provenienti da giacimenti relitti al largo (Regione Emilia-Romagna, 2005). Infatti, per ciò che riguarda Lido di Classe, nel Maggio del 2002 sono stati versati 66000 m3 (Preti, 2005). La zona adiacente alle opere di protezione di Lido di Dante ha beneficiato, recentemente, di un intervento di ripascimento basato su sabbie provenienti da cava (33000 m3), per compensare la grave erosione avvenuta nel tratto dunare a sud delle opere in seguito alle mareggiate del Settembre 2004. L’intervento si è però rivelato un palliativo, dato che, già poche settimane dopo la chiusura dei lavori, i benefici sulla spiaggia emersa non erano più visibili (Ciavola et al., in stampa). Considerate le criticità che caratterizzano quest’area e il fatto che qui coesistono entrambe le tipologie di costa (naturale e/o antropica), che caratterizzano l’intera riviera Emiliano-Romagnola, si è pensato di utilizzarla come sito pilota per la sperimentazione di uno studio sulla vulnerabilità dei litorali rispetto al fenomeno di ingressione marina in condizioni di mareggiata. Qui è stata messa a punto la metodologia per il calcolo, l’individuazione e la descrizione della maggiore o minore esposizione delle spiagge e/o delle strutture antropiche agli eventi estremi, definendo una procedura da adottare nelle altre aree

Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most... more Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most impactful in terms of global population affected (UNDRR, 2020). Coastal areas are exposed to multiple met-ocean extreme events which can occur separately or combined. Storm surges associated with wind waves, heavy rainfall and tides can lead to catastrophic inundation events associated with breakdown of structures, food and water insecurities and loss of lives. Additionally, climate changes are associated with two coastal risk factors: a) an increase of extreme events (Schiermeier, 2011; Vitousek et al., 2017) and b) an increase of sea level rise (IPCC, 2018).Different approaches exist to flood modelling (Vousdoukas et al.,2016; Dottori, Martina and Figueiredo, 2018), varying by complexity and accuracy. Simple hydrological models, which operate by integrating the 2D shallow water equation in a flood-plain, offer a good trade-off between computational demand and good skills in simulating...

Environmental Modelling & Software

Negli ultimi 50 anni la fascia costiera dell'Emilia-Romagna ha conosciuto un massiccio svilup... more Negli ultimi 50 anni la fascia costiera dell'Emilia-Romagna ha conosciuto un massiccio sviluppo urbano in seguito al quale alcuni processi naturali, come l'erosione delle spiagge, che da sempre hanno caratterizzato l'evoluzione del sistema litoraneo, sono divenuti fenomeni dai quali ci si deve difendere. L'erosione delle spiagge è un fenomeno riconducibile alla combinazione di diverse cause tra le quali si annoverano l'eustatismo, la subsidenza, la dinamica litoranea e la diminuzione dell'apporto solido da parte dei fiumi (Bondesan et alii, 1978). L'attenzione verso tale fenomeno in Emilia-Romagna ha prodotti importanti studi che hanno permesso di analizzare in dettaglio le diverse cause e di stabilire l'entità delle perdite della spiaggia negli ultimi 25 anni (Idroser S.p.a., 1996; ARPA Emilia-Romagna, 2002, 2008)

Negli ultimi anni è cresciuta l'attenzione per il monitoraggio dei fenomeni a forte impatto s... more Negli ultimi anni è cresciuta l'attenzione per il monitoraggio dei fenomeni a forte impatto sul sistema costiero. Il progetto europeo Micore prevede lo sviluppo di un sistema previsionale per la comprensione e previsione dei fenomeni erosivi sulla costa anche in Emilia-Romagna. I risultati per l'inverno 2009-2010 hanno evidenziato il contributo delle acque alte per i fenomeni erosivi e hanno confermato la necessità di un sistema di previsione attivo e di continuare le pratiche di protezione in atto

It is an interesting paper that illustrates the consequences of mean sea level rise and stormines... more It is an interesting paper that illustrates the consequences of mean sea level rise and storminess on the coastal areas of Emilia-Romagna in terms of land loss. The paper is logically structured and the methodology seems adequate (but I cannot make comments on the flood model because I don’t know it). Unfortunately, the paper often contains confusing terminology that makes it hard to understand. This problem should be solved before the paper can be published.

The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region is exposed to risk from coastal flooding during sto... more The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region is exposed to risk from coastal flooding during storms. The vulnerability of this coastline is a topic of interest for future coastal planning as this area provides large revenue for coastal communities and the whole region. High-resolution air-borne laser detection technology (LIDAR) has permitted to undertake a feasibility study for the assessment of coastal erosion and flooding patterns along one of the best-preserved dune systems of the area. Following a period of exceptional events occurred in September 2004, with a return period of 100-years, the whole coastal system is in a state of weakness. A risk evaluation was therefore undertaken for combined events of storm waves and surges, with return periods of 1, 10 and 100 years. A methodology for the characterisation of dune erosion is proposed

Ocean & Coastal Management, 2020

Multiple anthropogenic activities can exert adverse effects on marine vulnerable ecological compo... more Multiple anthropogenic activities can exert adverse effects on marine vulnerable ecological components and the ecosystem services they provide to human well-being. Emilia-Romagna (E-R) Region belongs to one of the most industrialized coastal and sea areas of the Italian Northern Adriatic Sea, requiring adequate decision support instruments able to assist authorities to enforce ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). In this research we combine Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) model with marine ecosystem services capacity (MES Cap) assessment of multiple ecological components (seabed habitats, essential fish habitats, marine mammals and turtles). The geospatial instruments were used for E-R Region's sea space to support the selection of spatially explicit measures to address two marine conservation objectives, i.e. A. preservation of essential fish habitats and B. protection of species of high conservation value, namely marine mammals and turtles, proposed within an MSP pilot study for the region. Results show that cumulative effects are mainly generated from trawling activities, maritime transport (e.g. Port of Ravenna), and by the influence of land-based activities (i.e. inputs from Po river and other minor rivers). Highest threats to marine ecosystem services (ES) were related to supporting ES (e.g. habitat and nursery provisioning) and to cultural ES. We discuss the contribution of the presented approach towards an ecosystem-based management in the region and the potential benefits that the integration of the ES concept can have in the designing of planning measures with the aim of reducing the cumulative effects and of maintaining marine ecological resources and services.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016

The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system... more The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20-to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016

This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna regio... more This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The first approach was adopted before the directive had been issued. Three scenarios of damage were designed (1-, 10-, 100-year return periods), produced by the concurrent occurrence of a storm, high surge levels and high-water spring tidal levels. Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along 187 equally spaced profiles, and these were added to the tidal and atmospheric water level contributions. The result is a list of 10 vulnerability typologies. To satisfy the requirements of the directive, the Geological, Seismic and Soil Service (SGSS) recently implemented a different methodology that considers three scenarios (10-, 100-and > 100-year return periods) in terms of wave setup (not including run-up) plus the contribution of surge levels as well as the occurrence of high-water springs. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations that are part of a model built into ArcGIS ®. The model uses as input a high-resolution lidar DEM that is then processed using a least-path cost analysis. Inundation maps are then overlapped with land use maps to produce risk maps. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods are also presented, showing a positive agreement.

Land subsidence represents a kind of hazard, which affects an increasing number of worldwide regi... more Land subsidence represents a kind of hazard, which affects an increasing number of worldwide regions, densely populated, causing damage to the environment and infrastructures. Settlements can be related to multiple processes both natural and anthropic (i.e. vadose zone processes, soil consolidation, aquifer compaction, solid and fluid extraction and load-induced compaction) which take place at different spatio-temporal scale. Over the last decades, advanced subsidence studies exploited Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) data, a recent remote sensing tool, to investigate land subsidence phenomena around the world. In particular, Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique, allowing a quantitative estimation at high resolution of the surface deformations, has already been successfully applied to monitor the phenomenon evolution; PSI measurements represent the cumulative displacement, deriving from the contribution of natural and anthropic components, both superficial and deep. The...

The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy is exposed to risk from coastal flooding a... more The coastal zone of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy is exposed to risk from coastal flooding and erosion during storms. The vulnerability of this coastline is a topic of interest for future planning as this area provides large revenue for coastal communities and the whole region. An assessment of the historical record of storm events for the period 2000-2004 was carried out using a wave prediction model, forced by archived atmospheric circulation data. High-resolution airborne laser detection technology (LIDAR) and video-monitoring (ARGUS) were used to undertake a feasibility study for the assessment of coastal erosion and flooding patterns along one of the best-preserved dune systems of the area. The object of the work was the comparison between two LIDAR flights at an interval of one year (July 2003-September 2004) with the second flight carried out after a major storm occurred in September 2004. Following this event the whole coastal system was severely eroded. The study presented in this paper suggests that for the coast of the Emilia-Romagna region the critical factor that controls dune destruction and inland flooding is the joint occurrence of storm waves and surges. Beach slope is the main morphological control on wave run-up and the impact evaluation for the exceptional event has proved that a wide beach can provide a factor of safety. A small beach replenishment (33,000 m 3) was undertaken on the test site but this resulted to be ineffective because of the small volume. Larger-scale beach recharge schemes should be undertaken at the site on a regular basis to provide wider beaches at the dune toe.

ermesambiente.it

... Paolo CIAVOLA (*), Clara ARMAROLI (*), Marinella MASINA (*), Luisa PERINI (**), Paolo Luciani... more ... Paolo CIAVOLA (*), Clara ARMAROLI (*), Marinella MASINA (*), Luisa PERINI (**), Paolo Luciani ... Si è provveduto quindi al calcolo del valore di massimo run-up, o risalita della lama d'acqua, per ciascun tempo di ritorno, utilizzando l'espressione di Komar (1998) basata sulla ...

Fra la terra e il mare: analisi e proposte per la Pianificazione dello Spazio Marittimo in Emilia... more Fra la terra e il mare: analisi e proposte per la Pianificazione dello Spazio Marittimo in Emilia-Romagna

The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil p... more The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil protection agencies in order to prepare themselves and, if needs be, execute the appropriate hazard-reduction measures. In this study we present a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal storm risk on the Emilia-Romagna coastline in Northern Italy. This EWS is run by executing a chain of numerical models (SWAN, ROMS and XBeach) daily, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision making by end-users. The storm impact indicator selected for this site is the Safe Corridor Width (SCW), which is a measure of how much dry beach width is available for safe passage by beach users. A three-day time-series of the predicted SCW is generated daily by the prototype EWS. If the minimum SCW exceeds a certain threshold, a warning is issued to end-users via an automated email service. All available prediction information is also updated daily on-line. Over the one year th...

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2020

Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Rave... more Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Ravenna (Italy) were identified by analysing the relationships among different data set time series (water table level, rainfall, land reclamation drainage, sea level, etc.) and establishing the correlations with vertical ground motion observed at a high-resolution settlement gauge. Our study highlights the presence of three deformation components related to different processes controlling land subsidence: elastic, delayed-elastic, and irreversible (plastic) components. The elastic and delayed-elastic components are closely related to water table fluctuations that change the effective stress in two portions of the coastal aquifer at a daily (in the sandy unconfined portion) and seasonal time scales (in the layered clay-rich semi-confined prodelta portion), respectively. The irreversible component represents the trend in the land subsidence time series and is due to primary consolidation (pore pressure dissipation) of the fine-grained prodelta levels above where the settlement gauge is located. The amplitudes of the elastic component can be up to 0.2-0.3 mm whereas the amplitude of the delayed-elastic component reaches 0.89 mm. The primary consolidation rate of deformation is 0.9 mm yr −1 and constrains the likely age of prodelta sediments deposition to 1300-2800 years before present. The delayed-elastic subsidence rate has similar magnitude to that due to primary consolidation and is connected to poroelastic effects in the prodelta sequence following seasonal variations in water table. Our findings are important for planning land subsidence management and monitoring strategies especially where the surface aquifer structure is heterogeneous due to different depositional settings. The natural land subsidence rate in the Holocene sediments of the shallow coastal aquifer of Ravenna (North eastern Italy) that we measured in this study accounts for 10 %-20 % of the total current land subsidence rate observed in this portion of Ravenna coastal area (10-20 mm yr −1).

The Emilia-Romagna Region has developed an integrated system for the management of sea-storm risk... more The Emilia-Romagna Region has developed an integrated system for the management of sea-storm risk based on agreements between different public authorities and industry, on cartographic products and IT services. A sea-storm occurred on 6 February 2015 offered the opportunity to test the part of the operative chain responsible for data collection, monitoring and analysis of the impacts, which belongs to the regional geological service (SGSS) and to improve the knowledge about the phenomenon. The forecast models have predicted two days before the severity of the event and the Civil Protection issued a prompt warning. It was activated immediately the observation procedure and the data collection, including remote sensing information (photos and movies), those were invaluable for the analysis of the impacts and for the creation of dedicated maps. Besides, it was possible to check the flood hazard maps of the Directive 2007/60, confirming the strength of the adopted model.

Le coste che soffrono di fenomeni di erosione a lungo termine sono particolarmente esposte alle m... more Le coste che soffrono di fenomeni di erosione a lungo termine sono particolarmente esposte alle mareggiate. L’impatto di eventi estremi sul litorale è in funzione della loro energia assoluta e del processo di clustering, cioè dell’occorrenza di eventi che si susseguono a breve distanza nel tempo. Il processo di erosione viene inoltre controllato dalla persistenza di livelli di alta marea al di sopra della quota del medio mare. Il fenomeno è noto in alto Adriatico come acqua alta, più universalmente come storm surge. Qualora si voglia effettuare una valutazione di rischio da ingressione marina è quindi necessario considerare la probabilità combinata di occorrenza simultanea di entrambi i fenomeni, con periodo di ritorno annuale, decennale o centennale. La zona a sud dei Fiumi Uniti presenta diversi insediamenti balneari, localizzati in corrispondenza degli abitati di Lido di Dante e di Lido di Classe. Per arginare la consistente erosione costiera ed i fenomeni di ingressione marina, negli ultimi 30 anni sono state costruite una serie di opere longitudinali e trasversali. Una svolta nella politica gestionale della costa si è però avuta alla fine degli anni ‘80 (Preti, 1993) con la realizzazione del primo ripascimento a Lido di Dante (65000 m3 nel 1986) e Lido di Classe (35000 m3 tra il 1989 ed il 1990). Inizialmente gli interventi erano basati su sabbie provenienti da cave, mentre più recentemente (2002) si è passati all’utilizzo di sabbie marine su larga scala, provenienti da giacimenti relitti al largo (Regione Emilia-Romagna, 2005). Infatti, per ciò che riguarda Lido di Classe, nel Maggio del 2002 sono stati versati 66000 m3 (Preti, 2005). La zona adiacente alle opere di protezione di Lido di Dante ha beneficiato, recentemente, di un intervento di ripascimento basato su sabbie provenienti da cava (33000 m3), per compensare la grave erosione avvenuta nel tratto dunare a sud delle opere in seguito alle mareggiate del Settembre 2004. L’intervento si è però rivelato un palliativo, dato che, già poche settimane dopo la chiusura dei lavori, i benefici sulla spiaggia emersa non erano più visibili (Ciavola et al., in stampa). Considerate le criticità che caratterizzano quest’area e il fatto che qui coesistono entrambe le tipologie di costa (naturale e/o antropica), che caratterizzano l’intera riviera Emiliano-Romagnola, si è pensato di utilizzarla come sito pilota per la sperimentazione di uno studio sulla vulnerabilità dei litorali rispetto al fenomeno di ingressione marina in condizioni di mareggiata. Qui è stata messa a punto la metodologia per il calcolo, l’individuazione e la descrizione della maggiore o minore esposizione delle spiagge e/o delle strutture antropiche agli eventi estremi, definendo una procedura da adottare nelle altre aree