Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall (original) (raw)

Donald, A., Meinke, H., Power, B., Maia, A. d. H.N., Wheeler, M.C., White, N., Stone, R. C. and Ribbe, J. (2006)Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (9). p. 9704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155

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Article Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155

Publisher URL: http://www.agu.org/

Abstract

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

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