Adérito Vicente | European University Institute (original) (raw)

Papers by Adérito Vicente

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, 2024

Nuclear weapons remain the unquestioned core of European defence and security policy. Most Europe... more Nuclear weapons remain the unquestioned core of European defence and security policy. Most European countries rely on NATO’s nuclear umbrella for collective defence, primarily under US leadership, while a few, such as France, continue to address nuclear issues on a strictly national basis.

The current security landscape in Europe is characterised by growing complexity and uncertainty. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s security vulnerabilities and raised concerns about Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling, especially in the Black Sea region. Furthermore, the emergence of revisionist powers, such as Russia and China, which are challenging the Western-led liberal world order, presents a new two-peer challenge for Euro-Atlantic security and NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence. This, combined with the evolving dynamics of American foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region and the potential re-election of the ‘transactionalist’ Donald Trump in November 2024, highlights the imperative for a critical reassessment of the role of nuclear weapons in Europe.

In this context, a rigorous political debate is essential to explore the potential need for a common European nuclear deterrent, while prioritising the preservation of both the Atlantic Alliance and the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime.

This research paper aims to critically evaluate the viability and necessity of implementing a shared nuclear deterrent for Europe, thereby enhancing the continent’s autonomy in its collective security and defence policy decisions. Taking into consideration Europe’s historical context and the current state of nuclear deterrence, the paper meticulously examines the prospects and challenges of establishing such a deterrent. It presents potential avenues and policy recommendations. Ultimately, the paper seeks to provide valuable insights that contribute to the academic and political discourse, and a compelling argument for EU policymakers to reconsider, discuss and potentially establish a European nuclear deterrent.

Contributions to political science, Dec 31, 2022

From Ukraine's independence in 1991 to Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukrainian territory in 2... more From Ukraine's independence in 1991 to Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukrainian territory in 2022, the European Union's (EU) international involvement in Kyiv's nuclear status can be characterized from an elusive and marginal common policy in the sphere of nuclear disarmament to an 'unassuming' common and coherent non-proliferation policy. During this period, Brussels relied on Washington to take the lead. In this context, my objective is to describe what was and is the role of the EU in Ukraine's nuclear status. The EU's involvement (even if marginal) can be analysed into two distinct timeframes. First, I propose to study the role of the EU during the period between the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the complete dismantlement of nuclear weapons in Ukraine after the signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum. Second, I examine the EU efforts to promote non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament agenda between two critical junctures: 2014 Russia's covert invasion of eastern Ukraine and 2022 Moscow's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine territory. In the end, I also scrutinize the effects of these two major events on the current European security and nuclear order.

Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, 2024

This paper delves into France’s nuclear capabilities and credibility, examining its evolving stra... more This paper delves into France’s nuclear capabilities and credibility, examining its evolving strategic posture in response to Russia’s nuclear signaling and the broader geopolitical landscape. Subsequently, it will consider France’s nuclear doctrine and vital interests, analyze the effectiveness of its current deterrence strategy, and assess the impact of the Ukraine war on its future direction. Ultimately, we aim to shed light on how France is navigating the current and latent complex challenges, utilizing its nuclear force as a key element of its national security strategy.

Springer eBooks, 2019

This chapter studies European security in the field of nuclear deterrence and cooperation. The ce... more This chapter studies European security in the field of nuclear deterrence and cooperation. The central objective is to understand United Kingdom’s role in Europe’s security in these domains and the consequences associated with Brexit. The chapter firstly traces the origins and the historical evolution of European security policies on nuclear weapons and its significant impact on security and defence matters. Secondly, it examines the state of play of Europe’s strategies and policies on nuclear deterrence and cooperation, respectively. And thirdly, it discusses the challenges posed to the EU and the UK on security and defence cooperation. The analysis applies a comparative methodology and draws on primary documentary data gathered by the author during research in the Historical Archives of the European Union, Florence, and on expert interviews.

Portuguese Journal of Political Science, 2023

Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, 2022

Since February 24, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become a laboratory of major theories and regimes.... more Since February 24, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become a laboratory of major theories and regimes. Most of them were inherited from the Cold War period. At the forefront of this day-to-day testing lab, nuclear deterrence is being assessed for its capabilities and limits. This critical juncture is already paving a new role in today’s international security architecture.
In the context of the present war in Ukraine, the problem is that Russian nuclear deterrence has not been entirely credible and might undermine the declaratory policies of other nuclear weapon states. However, deterrence against US/NATO is working and its use as a cover for Russian aggression in Ukraine could be successful.
This paper focuses on the limitations of nuclear deterrence and the ineffectiveness of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear weapon states that were brightly demonstrated during this war.

Negotiations on the establishment of a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (ME WMDF... more Negotiations on the establishment of a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (ME WMDFZ) and their means of delivery has long been a common goal of all the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) states parties and regional states. However, after more than three decades of preliminary negotiations, the ME WMDFZ process reached its critical phase. This presentation focuses on the current dialogue and diplomatic efforts to negotiate a zone free of nuclear weapons. As such, I examine the key efforts that different parties (namely the European Union) had taken to promote a dialogue on nuclear disarmament in the region, but I also evaluate the factors that obstruct the negotiations for the establishment of a ME WMDFZ. I argue that opportunities to negotiate a zone free of nuclear weapons and ME WMDFZ can learn a great deal from the successful negotiation of other nuclear weapons free zones (NWFZs) and to some extent the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA...

A dissertação que agora se apresenta resultou de um trajecto atribulado, algo arrastado, de muita... more A dissertação que agora se apresenta resultou de um trajecto atribulado, algo arrastado, de muitas leituras, e de muita reflexão, ao longo do qual fui recebendo o maior apoio e estímulo de muitos. E, apesar do processo solitário a que qualquer investigador está destinado, um trabalho desta índole reúne sempre contributos de várias entidades. Neste sentido, os méritos que ela possa ter, devem-se também à confiança e ao apoio que fui recebendo de várias pessoas, sem os quais esta investigação não teria sido possível, expressando por isso a todos a minha mais profunda gratidão. À Direcção de Serviços da Ásia e Oceânia (SAO), do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, meu local de trabalho durante o meu primeiro ano de mestrado, pela experiência pessoal e profissional inestimável que adquiri. Por essa razão, desejo expressar os meus sinceros agradecimentos: ao Dr. João Terenas, ao Dr. Luís Brito Câmara, à Dra. Ana Riquito, à D. Esmeralda, e, em especial, à Dra. Sílvia Inácio pela sua amizade e ilimitada disponibilidade. À Biblioteca do Instituto de Defesa Nacional, local privilegiado e indispensável para a minha investigação. Um reconhecimento muito particular à D. Noémia Luís, pelo seu espírito diligente, ajuda e disposição permanente. Mas também um especial agradecimento ao Instituto de Estudo Superiores Militares por me ter dado a oportunidade de consultar algumas das obras da sua biblioteca. À Fundação Luso-Americana (FLAD), fico muito grato pela consulta de documentos na Biblioteca FLAD, principalmente à assistência concedida e colaboração da Dra. Leonor Roquete. Um reconhecimento, feito com amizade, à Dra. Paula Vicente pela sua incondicional disponibilidade. Ao Instituto de Estudos Políticos da Universidade Católica (IEP-UCP), designadamente na pessoa da Dra. Rita Seabra Brito, pelo uso das instalações para consulta e investigação de trabalhos científicos utilizados nesta dissertação. Uma especial menção ao Dr. Miguel Monjardino, pela sua disponibilidade para prestar uma entrevista exploratória no âmbito da temática da dissertação, e naturalmente pelos seus imprescindíveis e sagazes conselhos. À Direcção da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência Política (APCP), por ter-me dado a oportunidade de apresentar publicamente parte do meu trabalho de investigação, na sua V Conferência APCP realizada, entre 4 e 6 de Março de 2010, em Aveiro. À Dra. Liliana Monteiro, professora de português, pela revisão e correcção do texto. À Professora Doutora Lídia Ferreira, docente no Departamento de Física do Instituto Superior Técnico, pela sua disponibilidade, partilha de conhecimentos, e revisão científica de alguns aspectos da minha dissertação relacionados com a Física Nuclear.

Jean Monnet Working Papers on EU Multilateral Diplomacy, 2018

This paper explores the subject of EU foreign policy-making process in the field of nuclear disar... more This paper explores the subject of EU foreign policy-making process in the field of nuclear disarmament. It firstly explains EU member states priorities and policy options (conditioning factors). Secondly, given the current political system and the institutional context it explores the elements which establishes EU institutions to presumably produce policy in field of nuclear disarmament in a coherent manner (criteria-indicators). Thus, in order to assess what affects this decision-making
process, I will introduce and concisely use an analytical framework based on the identification of three different processes, namely: the internal process, the external process, and the outcome process (and its impact) of the EU international activities. For the purposes of this paper I examine only the internal process.

NATO's Connected Forces Initiative: A Critical Appraisal, Nov 2012

Adérito R. Vicente examines the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI) to highlight the importance of ... more Adérito R. Vicente examines the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI) to highlight the importance of greater military cooperation and cohesion within the Alliance. He analyzes how NATO can use existing initiatives to increase cooperation and interdependence without sacrificing sovereignty or operational capability.

UNITAR Multilateral Diplomacy Summer School–Student Papers, 2013

This policy paper explores both the concept and the reform of the veto power, as well as the atte... more This policy paper explores both the concept and the reform of the veto power, as well as the attempts that have been made to allow more countries the power to veto, along with a conceptual analysis of the arguments for and against extending this power to other UN members. This paper proceeds through three main sections. The first section analyses the concept of the veto power, and demonstrates how the use of veto is now distinct from that initial reason and how this power has turned into a device for protecting national interests of P5 or their strategic allies. The second sec-tion looks through the history of the efforts to reform the undemocratic structure of the UNSC and examines the main impediments towards the reform of the Security Council. The third section indicates a detailed recommendation for specific steps on how to implement the recommended policy option (and criteria).

Over the past three years nuclear disarmament has enjoyed resurgent interest in the Euro-Atlantic... more Over the past three years nuclear disarmament has enjoyed resurgent interest in the Euro-Atlantic area. In fact, a new and popular disarmament movement was provoked by a completely unexpected combination of former US officials, who used to be arms reduction hawks, such as Henry Kissinger and George Shultz. Also, the election of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the United States promises significant changes in the country’s nuclear strategy. As President, he expressed his vision of a world free of nuclear weapons in a speech in Prague. This new momentum for nuclear disarmament contributed to the adoption of a new Strategic Concept by NATO at the Lisbon Summit held in November 2010. In this paper I analyse how the Obama Administration’s nuclear disarmament agenda constructed this new NATO Strategic Concept, taking into account the new security environment and the current emerging global balance of power. I will rely on Richard Snyder''s (2002) decision-making model for explaining the phenomenon of U.S. foreign policy – in this specific case the analysis of NATO’s nuclear disarmament process. Notwithstanding, the system design of the linkage theory of James Rosenau (1997), having as its essential core, the independence and the mutual interpenetration between internal and international (system / environment). Therefore, the paper will be divided into five parts: (1) the evaluation of the United States political-strategic position in the current international system as background to nuclear disarmament momentum; (2) the study of Obama’s administration nuclear doctrine and vision, and their effects to American nuclear strategy; (3) the analyses of a comprehensive mapping of Obama’s nuclear disarmament milestones; (4) the influence of the United States decision-making policy in NATO’s consensus building decision, during the design of the new strategic concept; (5) and, finally, the assessment of NATO’s strategic concept results and their consequences for a global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation agenda.

Sesenta y cinco años después de los Estados Unidos detonó la primera arma nuclear, la proliferaci... more Sesenta y cinco años después de los Estados Unidos detonó la primera arma nuclear, la proliferación sigue siendo un tema de gran interés y preocupación entre los académicos y los responsables políticos. Más naciones han adquirido o están buscando armas nucleares. El temor de una amenaza nuclear y el conflicto plantea las mayores preocupaciones generalmente expresada por los gobiernos y ciudadanos de todo el mundo. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es entender lo que caracteriza a la actual estrategia nuclear de los EE.UU., y la comparación de Bush y las políticas de Obama. Los elementos centrales en discusión aquí están relacionados con la percepción del papel apropiado de las armas nucleares, es decir, el control de armamentos, el desarme, la disuasión y las iniciativas de no proliferación. Por lo tanto, el autor comienza con la contextualización del tema en los debates contemporáneos sobre las armas nucleares que permiten al lector hacer un seguimiento de los principales hechos históricos que lo lleva a la discusión actual de la estrategia nuclear de los EE.UU.

Sixty-five years after the United States detonated the first nuclear weapon, proliferation remains a topic of intense interest and concern among both academics and policy makers. More nations have acquired or are seeking nuclear weapons. The fear of a nuclear threat and conflict raises the highest concerns usually expressed by governments and citizens all over the world. The main aim of this paper is to understand what characterizes the current U.S. nuclear strategy, comparing Bush and Obama policies. The core elements under discussion here are related to the perception of the appropriate role of nuclear weapons, i.e. arms control, disarmament, deterrence and nonproliferation initiatives. Therefore, the author begins with the contextualizing of the topic on the contemporary debates on nuclear weapons that allow the reader to track the main historical developments that leads
him to the present discussion of the U.S. nuclear strategy.

Books by Adérito Vicente

Lisboa : Instituto de Estudos Superiores Militares, 2015

Image of U.S. Presidential Administrations: The Cases of George W. Bush and Barack Obama by Célia Belim e Patricia Calca, 2013

The sixth chapter, American Nuclear Strategy: The International Image and Public Opinion’s Manage... more The sixth chapter, American Nuclear Strategy: The International Image and Public Opinion’s Management, has as its main purpose the comparison between Bush and Obama’s nuclear strategies and their projection on public opinion and media. The authors stress that building a world without nuclear weapons is a mandatory cause for Obama’s administration. The consensus on the appropriate role of nuclear weapons, arms control initiatives, and nonproliferation programs are vital to define America’s actual strategic posture. This issue comes at a time when threats have changed and the world has moved closer to a proliferation tipping point.